Janet Larsen, Director of Research

1
Growing Food InsecurityFood-to-Fuel and Other
Challenges

• Janet Larsen, Director of Research
• May 2008

2
Corn Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April
2008
Source CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
3
Wheat Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April
2008
Source CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
4
Soybean Futures Prices, January 1999 Through
April 2008
Source CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
5
Rice Prices, 1985 2008(Monthly 100 Grade B)
Dollars per Ton
Source USDA ERS
6
Food Price Unrest Around the World
September 2007 May 2008
Compiled by Earth Policy Institute
7
Top Grain Exporters Quantity (million tons)
United States 106.1
Argentina 28.1
Canada 18.6
E.U. 14.3
Russia 13.1
Australia 10.6
Thailand 9.3
Kazakhstan 9.0
Brazil 8.7
Vietnam 5.0
Top Corn Exporters Quantity (million tons)
United States 62.0
Argentina 15.0
Brazil 9.0
Paraguay 1.6
Ukraine 1.2
China 1.0
South Africa 0.8
India 0.5
Canada 0.4
E.U. 0.3
Top Wheat Exporters Quantity (million tons)
United States 32.5
Canada 14.5
Russia 12.0
Argentina 11.0
E.U. 9.0
Australia 8.0
Kazakhstan 8.0
Ukraine 5.2
China 2.5
Turkey 1.5
Top Rice Exporters Quantity (million tons)
Thailand 9.0
Vietnam 5.0
United States 3.5
India 3.4
Pakistan 2.9
China 1.3
Egypt 1.1
Uruguay 0.8
Argentina 0.5
Cambodia 0.5
Source EPI, USDA, FT
Red circles indicate export restrictions in place
as of May 2008
8
Top Ten Grain Importers Share of Consumption
from Imports
Source USDA
9
World Grainland Area
Million Hectares
Source USDA
10
World Grainland Area Per Person
Hectares
Source USDA, UN
11
World Irrigated Area
Million Hectares
Source FAO, Worldwatch
12
World Irrigated Area Per Person
Square Meters
Source FAO, Worldwatch, UN
13
World Grain Yield Annual Increase by Decade
Average Annual Increase (percent)
1950-1960
1990-2000
1980-1990
1970-1980
1960-1970
2000-2007
Source USDA, Worldwatch
14
World Grain Balance
Million Tons
Production
Consumption
Source USDA
15
World Grain Carryover Stocks
Million Tons
Source USDA
16
World Grain Carryover Stocks as Days of
Consumption
Days
Source USDA
17
U.S. Grain Use for Fuel Ethanol
Million Tons
Source EPI, USDA, RFA
2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy
Institute
18
U.S. Grain Production and Use for Ethanol
Million Tons

Source EPI, USDA, RFA
2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth
Policy Institute
19
Gasoline and Ethanol in the United States
Ethanol supplied less than 4 of gasoline
consumption in 2007
but used 20 of the U.S. grain harvest.
Source EPI, USDA, EIA
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For more information

• Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save
  Civilization (New York W.W. Norton Company,
  2008), www.earthpolicy.org.
• C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer, How Biofuels
  Could Starve the Poor, Foreign Affairs, May/June
  2007.
• Financial Times, The Global Food Crisis,
  interactive map, www.ft.com.
• The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, The
  Failed States Index 2007, Foreign Policy,
  July/August 2007.
• U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Crop
  Prospects and Food Situation, no. 2, April 2008.
• Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank
  Group, A Challenge of Economic Statecraft,
  Speech at the Center for Global Development
  (Washington, DC 2 April 2008).

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References
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Market Recap
Reports, at www.cbot.com. Lester R. Brown, World
Facing Huge New Challenge on Food Front, Plan B
Update, 16 April 2008, with additional
information at www.earthpolicy.org. Financial
Times (FT), The Rising Cost of Food,
www.ft.com/foodprices, updated 5 May
2008. Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), Ethanol
Biorefinery Locations, at www.ethanolrfa.org/indu
stry/locations. U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT, electronic database
at faostat.fao.org. United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA), Production Supply and
Distribution, electronic database at
www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. USDA Economic
Research Service (ERS), Rice Yearbook 2007
(Washington, DC November 2007). USDA, Feedgrains
Database, electronic database at
www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FeedGrains. U.S. Department
of Energy, Energy Information Administration
(EIA), Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation
Sector, at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biom
ass.html.
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• www.earthpolicy.org