Study and Demonstration on Key Technology of Integrated Risk Governance

1
Study and Demonstration on Key Technology of
Integrated Risk Governance
National Key Technology Research and Development
Program



Peijun Shi Academy of Disaster Reduction and
Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs
Ministry of Education, Beijing, Peoples
Republic of China

• 2007.6

2
Contents

• Introduction
• Significance and necessities of the program
• Research basis in China
• Program goals, implementation years and
  assessment criteria
• Program research areas, sub-programs and
  collaborator selection
• Program-related key technologies, innovations and
  technical route
• Intellectual Properties and Technical Standards
• Program budget
• Expected benefits
• Management mechanism
• Program risks

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1. Introduction
4
Introduction

• Program category National Key Technology
  Research and Development Program
• Research fields Agriculture, Public security
• Funded by Ministry of Science and Technology
• Organizer Ministry of education
• DirectorDepartment of Agriculture, Ministry of
  Science and Technology
• Implementation time2006 -2010
• Fiscal budgetRMB 80 million (About 10 million
  U.S dollar)

1.Introduction
5
Introduction

• The research fields (Agriculture and public
  security) which this program belongs to are prior
  issues in The 11th Five-Year Plan.
• Combined with Building a new socialist
  countryside project and National 985-project ST
  platform (Earth surface process and Integrated
  disaster reduction).
• Expected major achievements patents, technical
  standards, software, journal articles and books,
  research reports and personnel training.

1.Introduction
6
2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.1 Significance

• Frontier issue for Building a new socialist
  countryside project and sustainable development
• Technical support to ensure high speed economic
  and social development
• Completing the study of Integrated Risk
  Governance in China
• Strengthening the ability of integrated risk
  reduction in major industrial risks and
  international (cross-border) risks
• Improving coordination between central and local
  governments in hierarchical risk management

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.2 Necessities

• Basic requirement of economical and social
  development.
• Joining the international network of integrated
  risk governance is crucial for peaceful
  development of China.
• Support sustainable development in China.
• Key to science innovation in China.

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.3 Recent developments on IRG
--------International development

• International conferences
• Research organizations
• Scientific developments

2. Significance and necessities of the program
10
Recent developments on IRG

• World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR,
  2005.1, Kobe, Japan)
• Hyogo Declaration Strengthen national
  integrated disaster reduction ability ensuring
  sustainable development.
• International Disaster Reduction Conference
  (IDRC, August, 27, 2006- September,1,2006. Davos,
  Switzerland)
• Davos Declaration Focus on harmonic
  development and integrated disaster reduction
• Asian Conference on Disaster Reduction (ACDR,
  2005.9, Beijing, China)
• Beijing Declaration Explicitly emphasis the
  basic framework of regional collaboration in
  Asian disaster reduction
• International Risk Governance Council General
  Conference (IRGC, 2005.8, Beijing, China)
• Integrated Disaster Risk Governance White
  Paper A new integrated disaster risk governance
  science and management framework
• IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk
  Management (IIASA-DPRI,2001-2006)
• Science and technology for integrated disaster
  risk governance Exchange science and
  technologies on integrated disaster risk
  governance
• Other related conferences and symposiums
• UNDP Global Risk Identification Program Seminar
  
• National Research Institute of Earth
  Science and Disaster Prevention Disaster
  Reduction Hyperbase (DRH)

2. Significance and necessities of the program
11
Recent developments on IRG

• Risk society theory was proposed
• Ulrich Beck First used the term Risk society
• Giddens, 2001 Runaway world and man-made risk
• Lau, 1996 Century of Risk
• Lash, 2002 Risk culture
• National and international institutions for
  integrated risk governance established
• International Risk Governance Council-IRGC
• Trustnet
• Science and Technology for Society Forum
• Korean Society for Risk Governance
• Center for Hazards and Risk Research, the Earth
  Institute at Columbia University

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)

• Biological stressors
• Decision Analysis and Risk
• Dose Response
• Ecological Risk Assessment
• Economics and Benefits Analysis
• Engineering and Infrastructure
• Exposure Assessment
• Risk Communication
• Risk Science and Law

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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IRGC 2005 Conference Topics

• Trans-boundary risks why do they need a
  different approach?
• IRGCs guidance for risk characterization and
  risk governance --- a framework for improved
  risk-related decision-making
• Climate change decision-making under irreducible
  uncertainty
• Critical infrastructure at risk the need for
  participative multi-stakeholder decision-making
  to ensure service continuity.
• Risk governance and sustainable development in
  the Peoples Republic of China
• Risk governance for emerging technologies
• Understanding and managing the new challenges for
  human health, safety and the environment
• Natural disaster risk management from ideas to
  action
• Actions for risks of today and tomorrow

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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UNDP Global Risk Identification Program (GRIP)

• Integrated disaster risk reduction in high risk
  area
• Global scale focus on high risk areas
• Improving risk assessment theory data and
  methods
• Concerning multi-scale and integrated risks
• Improving integrated risk governance database
• Global integrated risk mapping

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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UNDP Global Risk Identification Program (GRIP)

• Improvement on integrated risk assessment system
• Disaster model
• Integrated risk estimation
• Applications

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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UNDP Global Risk Identification Program (GRIP)

• Application of integrated risk governance
  technologies
• Establish risk data service network
• Establish integrated risk knowledge management
  network
• National or regional integrated disaster risk
  assessment atlas

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.3 Recent developments on IRG
------Development in China

• Risk governance is one of the most important
  topics in Program of National Medium-term and
  Long-term Science and Technology Development
  Plan.
• In 2005, State Council proclaimed National
  Emergency Plan.
• In 2005, Office for Emergency Management was
  established in State Council.
• In 2003, National Disaster Reduction Center was
  established in Ministry of Civil Affairs
• In 2005, Agricultural and Catastrophic Insurance
  Development Plan was initiated by China Insurance
  Regulatory Commission
• IHDP-China established Risk working group
• Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency
  Management was established by Ministry of
  Education and Ministry of Civil Affairs
• Research center for catastrophe exposure and
  insurance was established by Swiss Re. and
  Beijing Normal University.

2. Significance and necessities of the program
18
2.3 Recent developments on IRG
------Weakness of IRG study in China

• Its a late start for integrated risk governance
  in China, and up till now public security is the
  major concern.

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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Risk governance has become one of the primary
concerns, but a comprehensive study framework has
not been established.
Integrated risk governance science and technology
system
2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.3 Recent developments on IRG
------Weakness of IRG study in China

• Limited diagnoses and identification of new risks
• Insufficient ability to develop integrated risk
  governance technologies
• Integrated risk assessment and regulatory
  mechanisms are not so sound

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.3 Recent developments on IRG
------Research trend

• From Disaster Reduction to Disaster Risk
  Reduction
• Taking Integrated Risk Governance Ability as the
  basic infrastructure for sustainable development
• Emphasizing the construction of an Institutional
  Integrated Disaster Risk Governance
• Attaching great importance to the development of
  Key technologies in Integrated Risk Governance
• Boosting the establishment of Demonstration area
  for Integrated Risk Reduction in High risk area

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.4 Requirements Analysis(1)

• Integrated risk governance is the basic
  requirement
• To build up harmonic society and safety community
• To develop national and local disaster reduction
  abilities
• To ensure national and local sustainable
  development
• To advance disaster reduction and relief science
  and technology in every level of Chinese
  government
• To improve modernization of insurance and
  reinsurance operations
• To establish ability of risk management agents
  (services)

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.4 Requirements Analysis(2)

• Mapping the risks of the major disasters to
  satisfy the market demand
• Developing Integrated Risk Governance Network
  (IRiskNet) to help risk management
• Integrated Risk Modeling and Simulation System
  can assist government with preparing integrated
  risk governance plan
• Establishing System for Major Industrial and High
  Risk Area Disaster Reduction System to ensure
  regional sustainable development
• Developing Institutional System for Integrated
  Risk Governance in China

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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2.4 Requirements Analysis(3)

• Integrated Risk Assessment Software may have a
  potential value of RMB 1 billion
• National and high-risk area risk maps may worth
  RMB 10 billion or more
• Integrated Risk Governance Network (IRiskNet)
  will cover 30 of China

2. Significance and necessities of the program
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3. Research basis in China
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3.Research basis in China

• Research and expert training
• Ministry of Science and Technology has initiated
  pilot program in integrated risk governance
• Universities and research institutes have been
  working on risk and integrated risk with the
  support of National Science Foundation of China
• Master and doctor programs have been implemented
  for some years in safety science and geography
• Vocational risk governance
• Ministry of Civil Affairs has proclaimed Disaster
  Risk Relief Emergency Plan
• China Insurance Regulatory established Risk
  Management Emergency Plan for Insurance Industry
• PICC Asset Management Company Limited has
  conducted researches on risk value (VaR)
• China Pacific Insurance Company has conducted
  researches on Industrial enterprise risk
  assessment platform

3. Research basis in China
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3.Domestic research basis

• Capacity building
• Ministry of Civil Affair has completed Natural
  Disaster Relief Zonation of China
• Ministry of Education initiated 985 program
  phase 2 and Earth surface process and
  integrated disaster reduction scientific
  innovation platform
• Key laboratory of environment change and natural
  disaster of MOE completed Significant natural
  disaster case database (1949-2004)
• Atlas of Natural Disaster in China (Bilingual)
  and Atlas of Natural Disaster System of China
  (Bilingual) were published in the effort of
  Beijing Normal University and some other
  institutions in China.
• China Association for Science and Technology
  (CAST) established risk management committee

3. Research basis in China
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4. Program goals, implementation years and
assessment criteria
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4.1 Program goals

• By 2010, set up national integrated risk
  governance (assessment, respond, control and
  adaptation) science and technology system which
  will fit the needs of economical and social
  development of China
• For the field of integrated risk governance
  scientific innovation, reach the current level of
  developed countries
• Initiate national integrated risk governance key
  technologies innovation and simulation platform,
  and key industrial and regional integrated risk
  governance demonstration bases.

4. Program goals, implementation years and
assessment criteria
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4.2 Assessment criteria

• Complete national risk classification standards,
  classification system, risk assessment standards
  and models
• Complete three to five industrial technical
  standards and two national standards
• Complete national industrial and regional
  integrated risk simulation and modeling system
• Develop integrated risk governance scientific
  platform
• Complete national and regional risk information
  network service system which will cover 50 area
  of China

4. Program goals, implementation years and
assessment criteria
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4.2 Assessment criteria

• Complete integrated disaster risk automatic
  mapping system which will produce 11 million
  risk map and 1100 thousand risk map
• Establish about 8 demonstration bases for major
  industrial risks, catastrophe risk and
  international integrated risk governance, which
  will cover 30 of the entire risks in China
• Complete legal system and performance appraisal
  system for national integrated risk governance
• Complete integrated risk governance legislation
  framework which will be accepted by Chinese
  government.
• Complete proposal about state institutions setup
  for national integrated risk governance

4. Program goals, implementation years and
assessment criteria
32
5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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5.1 Program research areas

• Three types of sub-programs included
• Three technical sub-programs
• Risk identification and assessment technologies
  Key technologies of integrated risk governance
  Integrated platform for Key technologies for
  integrated risk governance
• Four demonstration sub-programs (industrial and
  regional)
• Demonstration for integrated disaster risk
  governance and relief and integrated risk
  governance insurance system
• Global change and globalization
• Energy and water resources
• Ecological and food risk governance
• One policy study sub-programs

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Demonstration regions for IRG
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5.2 Sub-program research areas
5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Sub-program 1-integrated risk classification and
assessment technology

• Research areas
• IRG identification and classification
• IRG assessment technologies
• Key issues
• Find out the indicator of risk forming and
  complexity
• Create risk classification indices and standards
• Develop risk assessment standards and models

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Flowchart of integrated risk classification and
assessment technology
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Sub-program 2 - Key IRG Technologies

• Research areas
• Integrated risk searching engine and IRiskNet
• Integrated risk modeling and simulation
  technologies
• Integrated risk automatic mapping technologies
• Key issues
• Integrated risk information searching engine
• Digital earth for Integrated risk information
  presentation
• Simulator for Integrated risk information
• Integrated risk automatic mapping technologies

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Integrated risk searching engine and network
information services
5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Integrated risk modeling and simulation
technologies
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Integrated risk automatic mapping technologies
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Sub-program 3-Integration Platform for IRG
Technologies

• Research areas
• IRG database covering 14 types of disaster risks
• IRG integration platform
• Key issues
• Integrated risk information presentation
  technologies based on digital earth model
• Integrated risk information searching engine
• Industrial and regional integrated risk modeling
  and simulation technologies
• Integrated risk mapping technologies

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Integration Platform for IRG Technologies
5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Sub-program 4-Social Security and Insurance
System Demonstration for IRG

• Research areas
• Demonstration of IRG social security system
• Demonstration of IRG insurance system
• Key issues
• Integrated disaster risk social security
  assessment indices system
• IRG decision-making assist technology
• Integrated risk insurance assessment model

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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IRG Social Security System
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IRG Insurance System
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Sub-program 5-Study and Demonstration on IRG of
Global Change and Globalization

• Research areas
• Global environmental change risk assessment
  technology
• Global environmental change and globalization
  risk governance technology
• Demonstration of global environmental change and
  globalization risk governance technology in Pearl
  river delta region
• Key issues
• Global environmental change risk identification
  and assessment technology
• Global environmental change risk mapping
  technology
• Global environmental change risk governance
  technology
• Global trade risk governance technology

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Global Environmental Change and Globalization
Risk Governance
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Sub-program 6-Study and Demonstration of Key IRG
Technologies for Energy and Water Resources

• Research areas
• IRG demonstration for energy security
• IRG demonstration for water resource security
• Key issues
• Traditional IRG technologies for energy
• New energy and renewable energy risk assessment
  technology
• IRG technologies for new energy and renewable
  energy
• Water resource risk assessment technology under
  global warming scenarios
• Cross-border water resource risk assessment
  technology

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Integrated Energy Security Governance
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Sub-program 7-Study and Demonstration on Key
Technologies for Integrated Ecological and Food
Risk Governance

• Research areas
• Research and demonstration on ecological security
  risk governance technology
• Research and demonstration on food security risk
  governance technology
• Key issues
• Establish integrated ecological and food risk
  assessment indices system
• Create integrated ecological and food risk
  assessment model
• Develop multi-level integrated ecological and
  food risk governance technology

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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Integrated Ecological and Foodstuff Risk
Governance
5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
53
Sub-program 8-Study on Assurance System for IRG
Policy and System

• Research areas
• Research on IRG system
• Research on IRG public policy and legalization
• Key issues
• IRG legislation framework
• Proposals on legislation been accepted by related
  government
• Performance appraisal system of IRG

5. Program research areas,sub-programs and
collaborator selection
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6. Program-related key technologies, innovations
and technical route
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6.1 Key technologies

• Integrated risk assessment indices and models
• Integrated risk assessment fuzzy modeling
  technology
• Integrated risk governance modeling and
  simulation
• Integrated risk database and search engine
• Integrated risk information evaluation technology
• Integrated risk automatic mapping technology
• Key technologies of IRG for major industries and
  high risk area
• Operational technologies of IRG for major
  industries
• Optimization policy and market mechanism of IRG

6. Program-related key technologies, innovations
and technical route
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6.2 Expected innovations

• Integrated risk assessment model for small-sample
• Regional integrated risk assessment model
• Integrated risk model with multi-risk indices
• Regional IRG simulation technology
• Intelligent cartographic generalization
  technology for IRG
• Automatic mapping software based on integrated
  risk database
• Demonstration of IRG in major risk management
  industry
• Demonstration of IRG in high-risk area

6. Program-related key technologies, innovations
and technical route
57
Integrated Risk Governance
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7. Intellectual Properties and Technical Standards
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7.1 Expected intellectual properties and
technical standards

• National risk classification standards and
  classification system
• National risk assessment standards and models
• 3-5 industrial technical standards
• 2 national standards
• 5-10 patents about IRG
• 1 IRG science and technology platform

7. Intellectual Properties and Technical Standards
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8. Program budget
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8.1 Program budget

• Program budget RMB 80 million (USD 10 million)
• 40 million from National Key Technology Research
  and Development Program
• 40 million from program undertakers

8. Program budget
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8.2 Annual program budget
8. Program budget
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8.3 Subject budget
8. Program budget
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9. Expected benefits
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9.1 Economic benefits

• Integrated Risk Assessment Software may have a
  potential value of RMB 1 billion
• National and high-risk area risk maps may worth
  RMB 10 billion or more

9. Expected benefits
66
9.2 Social benefits

• Support to compile IRG plan of central and local
  governments
• Fit the needs for risk information
• Support the construction of harmonic society and
  security communities

9. Expected benefits
67
10. Management mechanism
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10.1 Leader and collaborators

• Funded by Ministry of Science and Technology
• Organizer Ministry of Education
• Coordinator Beijing Normal University
• Collaborators Ministry of Civil Affairs Beijing
  Normal University Peking University Chinese
  Academy of Sciences China Insurance Regulatory
  Commission

10. Management mechanism
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10.2 Program operation

• To collaborate with Chinese institutions
• To boost international cooperation of IRG
• Demonstrations are operated by Ministry of Civil
  Affairs and China Insurance Regulatory Commission

10. Management mechanism
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11. Program risks
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11.1 Possible problems

• Major IRG database
• Estimation of possible new risk
• Software promotion may be limited by market
  accessibility
• Its difficult to coordinate among several
  industries and high-risk areas.

11. Program risks
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Thank you!