CEEH Energy System Optimisation

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CEEH Energy System Optimisation

• Kenneth Karlsson
• Risø DTU ,
• National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy
• Technical University of Denmark
• kenneth.karlsson_at_risoe.dk

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Optimisation loop
Externalities
Emissions
Energy System model
Economic development etc.
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Centre for Energy, Environment and Health
Energy System Modelling 2005 to 2050
System prices electricity district
heat hydrogen biofuels
Energy demand Transport energy Electricity Heat
Fuels - from all sectors
Energy supply Power plants Boilers Energy
storage Hydrogen production Bio-fuels
Macro economic factors
Energy demand
System optimization by minimising total system
costs
Fuel prices Hardware prices Externalities
Costs of other externalities (climate change,
nature etc.)
Costs of health related externalities
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Balmorel

• Geography
• Countries
• regions
• areas
• Time resolution
• e.g. 5 years step simulation
• 52 weeks with 5 time steps
• Endogenous investments
• power/heating plants
• heat storage
• electrolysers, heat pumps
• transmission lines etc.

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Balmorel

• Linear optimisation model of the energy system
• Minimising total yearly costs in the system
• Constraints balance equations, like
• power balance (at any time step production has to
  equal demand)
• heat balance
• hydrogen balance etc.
• and limitations, like
• resource limits (e.g. max available biomass
  resource)

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Fuel costs, investment costs, taxes, externalities
Car Bus Train Air Sea
Energy production
people
Electricity District heat Hydrogen Bio-fuels
Transport
Appliances Heat loss Heat supply
Household
Trucks Vans Train Sea Air
goods
Appliances Heat loss Heat supply Proces energy
Industry, trade and service
Air emissions and waste products
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Linear optimisation models

• Will always choose the cheapest solution
• If no restrictions/constraints, there will be one
  dominating technology
• Example of change in costs for power producing
  technologies when including externalities
• using www.recabs.org

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www.recabs.org
Biomass
Offshore wind
Gas CC CHP
Coal CHP
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www.recabs.org
Biomass
Offshore wind
Gas CC CHP
Coal CHP
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Some Balmorel results
Wind and biomass
CO2-price 300 DKK/t 40 /t
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Some Balmorel results
Wind and coal
CO2-price 150 DKK/t 20 /t
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Some Balmorel results
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• Tank you for your attention

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Seeking Collaboration Partners
Within CEEH
Outside CEEH
Global/regional air pollution modelling
Global energy and emission scenarios
Regional/local air pollution modelling
regional energy/emission scenarios
Effects in Denmark
Optimal future energy system
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Global scenarios IPCC
Balmorel (www.balmorel.com)
Boundary conditions
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