Simulating Operating

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• Simulating Operating Support Costs Using System
  Dynamics
• 2008 Ship User Conference
• 7 May 2008

www.oscamtools.com
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Introduction

• The Operating and Support Cost Analysis Model
  (OSCAM) is a Windows-based application designed
  to help analysts develop cost estimates for the
  operations and support portion of the platform
  life cycle.
• OSCAM provides a dynamic, flexible OS cost
  estimating model to support a variety of
  projects
• Life cycle cost estimates
• Total ownership cost analyses
• Analyses of alternatives
• Trade-off studies

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OSCAM Management Team
OSCAM was developed through a strategic
partnership between the Naval Center for Cost
Analysis (NCCA) and the UK Ministry of Defence
(UK MoD) with support from HVR Consulting
Services Ltd.

• HVR Consulting Services Ltd
• Alton, United Kingdom
• OSCAM Software Development
• OSCAM Web Site Administration
• UK Help Desk

• Ministry of Defence
• Bristol, United Kingdom
• OSCAM Program Management for UK

• Naval Center for Cost Analysis
• Naval Surface Warfare Center,
• Carderock Division
• Washington DC, United States of America
• OSCAM Program Management for US
• US Help Desk

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OSCAM Development History
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How is OSCAM different?

• OSCAM models are a time based simulation which
  makes it more powerful than Excel based models
• OSCAM can discretely model depot maintenance
  periods and account for aging, for example,
  because of the time based approach
• Model structure
• OSCAM is not a black box model
• OSCAM users have complete insight into the
  equations and relationships that are used via the
  built-in help functions and model structure
  document
• The model facilitates understanding of OS
  processes, OS costs, and the interdependencies
  that exist
• Supports a team approach
• OSCAM encourages a team approach it can be used
  throughout the life cycle by logisticians, cost
  analysts, engineers, etc., because the results
  offer both cost and non-cost outputs
• VAMOSC Historical datasets
• VAMOSC based historical datasets are provided
  with the model for any ship class that has data
  in the VAMOSC database. These datasets can act
  as the start of any analysis.

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What Is System Dynamics?
A Structured Approach to Aid in the
Understanding of Complex Systems
System Dynamics

• A Systemic Approach
• Capturing the whole
• Often high level
• Includes management

• Time Evolutionary View
• Dynamic
• System behavior

Influence Diagrams
Time-Based Simulation
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System Dynamics Theory

• Example
• Suppose you were interested in buying a home.
  What factors might be influencing the current
  market that will sway your decision?

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System Dynamics Theory
Current Housing Market (May 2008)
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(No Transcript)
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How the Simulation works
The ships service life is divided into a series
of equal time intervals (approximately 1 month)
Time
A
B
B
A
Status of platform at time B is determined by
that at A plus/minus other factors and constraints
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How the simulation works
Time

Depot Maintenance
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How the Simulation Works
Depot Maintenance

Fuel Costs

Depot Maintenance Costs
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Example
System Dynamics allows realistic phasing of costs
and the ability to analyze aging impacts.
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OSCAM Inputs

• There are 400 inputs to the model at the
  detailed level
• Data Management Tool (DMT)
• Other databases

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OSCAM Outputs
Cost Outputs

• Operations Costs
• Personnel
• Fuel
• Supplies
• Ordnance
• Training Costs
• Engineering Tech. Services
• Modernization
• Availability (Time not in Depot)
• Downtime

• Maintenance
• Organizational Level
• Repair Parts, Issues, Exchanges
• Intermediate Level (Ashore Afloat)
• Labor, Rpr Pts, Issues, Exchanges
• Depot Level
• Software Maintenance
• Publications, Disposal, etc.
• Maintenance Person-Hours
• Org. Intermediate Level
• Scheduled, Unsched, Alteration

Non-Cost Outputs
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OSCAM Tools and Features

• Delta Analysis Tool Allows users to quickly
  identify the deltas between two different OSCAM
  runs
• Aggregation Tool Allows users to combine two or
  more OSCAM runs
• On-line Help Facility Provides users with
  visibility into the models equations
• Automated Data Source Tracking Denotes the
  origin of each input (e.g. user input, historical
  data set, etc.)
• On-line Data Auditor Allows users to document
  their methodologies, data references, and any
  other pertinent information
• Sensitivity Module Allows users to assess how
  sensitive the total OS estimate is to particular
  inputs
• Uncertainty Module
• Allows users to assess the impact of
  variability/uncertainty of multiple inputs to the
  OS estimate
• Utilizes Monte Carlo simulation and triangular
  distributions
• Throughput Cost Facility Allows users full
  flexibility in entering throughput costs

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Possible Model Uses

• OSCAM enables analysts to evaluate alternative
  policies in terms of their effects on OS cost
  and availability. Some possible uses for OSCAM
  include analysis of the following
• OPTEMPO impact on Fuel Consumption
• OPTEMPO impact on Maintenance Requirements
• Aircraft Shortfall impact on OPTEMPO
• Aircraft Age impact on Maintenance Requirements
• Different Maintenance Philosophies
• Maintenance impact on Personnel Utilization
• Modernization impact on Aircraft Age and / or
  Organizational- and Intermediate-Level Maintenance

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Recent OSCAM Applications

• LHA 6 Milestone B PLCCE
• LHA 6 OS estimate was within 5 of OSD CAIG
• DDG1000 OS Update
• CG(X) Analysis of Alternatives
• JHSV Phase I
• Navy Unmanned Air Combat System (N-UCAS)
• Broad Area Maritime Surveillance UAV
• Using OSCAM to evaluate proposals in source
  selection
• VT UAV Milestone C
• Model was used to develop the estimates for both
  the program office and the ICE to facilitate
  reconciliation processes

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How Can I Trust the Model?

• Models are completely open to customer
• Models are built in a workshop environment, with
  several organizations and subject matter experts
  involved
• Robust development process
• Build influence diagrams in workshops
• Build the PowerSim code / stock flow diagrams
  from the influence diagrams
• Create the user interface to the PowerSim code
• Rigorous VV of each step
• Trials with prototype models

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OSCAM Training

• OSCAM Navy Suite Training is a hands on training
  course that allows the user to explore the model
  and become familiar with all of the different
  features.
• Over 250 government and industry analysts have
  been trained in the US on the Navy Suite model.
• Training is typically offered at the Washington
  Navy Yard in Washington DC.
• The next training course will be 2-4 June 2008.
  Seats are sill available for this course.
• Visit www.oscamtools.com to register!

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OSCAM Demo v7.0

• OSCAM(Ship) Demonstration Version is intended to
  raise interest in OSCAM by demonstrating some of
  its capabilities to potential users and to
  encourage interested analysts to
• Attend OSCAM training
• Obtain OSCAM(Ship) Full Version
• Learn more about OSCAM
• OSCAM(Ship) Demonstration Version has been
  simplified for untrained users through provision
  of a pre-loaded demonstration dataset. This
  dataset is not specific to any particular ship
  class.
• Therefore, the Demonstration Version is not
  intended for actual program analysis.

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OSCAM and VAMOSC Points of Contact

• Molly Mertz
• OSCAM Program Manager
• Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division
• (301) 227 - 4012
• mary.mertz_at_navy.mil

• Geoff Pawlowski
• OSCAM Deputy Program Manager
• Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division
• (301) 227 - 3661
• geoffrey.pawlowski_at_navy.mil

Mike Carey VAMOSC Program Manager OSCAM
Sponsor Naval Center for Cost Analysis (703) 692-
4901 michael.j.carey_at_navy.mil
Jeff Wolfe OSCAM Program Office Support Naval
Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division (301)
227 - 1013 jeffrey.w.wolfe_at_navy.mil
Related Web Sites www.oscamtools.com
www.navyvamosc.com www.ncca.navy.mil
www.hvrgroup.com
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• Questions?
• Comments?

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Example establish the baseline

• The Navy is interested in the OS costs of the
  current DDG 51 Flight IIA ship class
• There are currently 24 flight IIA ships in the
  fleet
• First introduction was in August 2000

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What-if?

• What if the number of enlisted crew can be
  reduced by 10?
• What if fuel consumption could be reduced by 15?
  Assume the production cost of achieving this
  savings is 1B (total for 24 ships) should the
  fuel consumption savings measures be considered?
• What if the program performs the fuel consumption
  savings measures, but the /bbl of fuel falls to
  50?
• What if the program decides that there will only
  be 1 DSRA (approx midlife) and all other depot
  maintenance will be handled through SRA periods?