Integrated Environment Strategies

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Integrated Environmental Strategies and
Co-Benefits
Jack Fitzgerald, USEPA Jose Ramon T. Villarin,
SJ, PhD
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Presentation Overview

• Introduction to Co-benefits
• Background on IES
• Case Studies Manila, Beijing and Santiago
• Select Partner Achievements
• Partner Support
• Supporting the International Co-Benefits
  Community
• Contact Information

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Co-benefits Why They Matter

• Basic definition All of the positive outcomes
  associated with multiple, simultaneous emissions
  reductions.
• From a decision making perspective, co-benefits
  analysis allows energy options, health impacts,
  other policy goals, and GHG emissions to be
  linked together and evaluated.
• Co-benefits analysis enables sound policy making
  to be based on quantitative analysis.
• It helps prioritize options in an environment
  where resources are limited.
• Supports mitigation analysis to inform
  environmental programming and decision making.

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How Can Co-benefits Be Achieved?

• Integrated measures that reduce GHG emissions and
  improve local air quality

Integrated

• Low-sulfur coal
• Smokestack controls
• Catalytic converters
• Diesel particle traps
• Evaporative controls

• Clean fuels/renewables
• Energy efficiency programs
• Methane gas recovery
• Fuel switching
• Public transport and land use
• Retirement of older vehicles
• Efficiency standards for new vehicles/appliances
• Inspection and maintenance programs

Global

• Geological and terrestrial sequestration
• Land use and land use change
• Control of other GHGs (CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6)

Local
Integrated
Adapted from Jason West et al (2002)
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IES U.S. EPAs Integrated Environmental
Strategies Program

• Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing
  co-benefits program.
• Partners local teams in developing countries with
  experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES
  projects, and other organizations (e.g., U.S.
  AID, U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory).
• Flexible, to address local air quality and public
  health needs of stakeholders in cities.
• Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e.,
  air-quality improvement and greenhouse-gas
  mitigation) strategies and co-benefits.

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IES Goals

• Identify strategies that reduce GHG emissions and
  improve local air quality while meeting public
  health, economic development objectives.
• Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates
  of global and local co-benefits of policies and
  technologies.
• Engage stakeholders to lay groundwork for
  implementation of cost-effective air quality
  management strategies.
• Build analytical, institutional, and human
  capacity for multidisciplinary analysis of GHG
  mitigation, health, and environmental impacts of
  alternative strategies.
• Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits
  analysis.

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IES Partners
Countries with IES projects
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How IES Works
Energy Emissions Modeling
Air Quality Modeling
Health Effects Modeling
Economic Valuation Modeling
TOOLS
Inform Policy
Projected Annual Emissions
Projected Ambient Concentration
Projected Public Health Impacts
Projected Economic Benefits
OUTPUTS

• Prepare baseline inventory to identify sources of
  AQ and GHG emissions.
• Develop alternative, integrated scenarios of
  measures based on local objectives using
  energy/economic models.
• Estimate concentrations of air pollution and
  exposure through AQ modeling.
• Estimate air pollution public-health benefits.
• Compare costs and benefits of alternative
  mitigation options and business-as-usual
  scenarios.
• Present results and seek feedback from
  policymakers/ stakeholders, fostering support for
  implementation.
• Integrate results into planning processes.

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Integrated Environmental Strategies (Philippine
Study)
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Outline

• Context and objective
• Framework
• Policy identification
• Methodology
• Results
• Conclusions and recommendations

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Context and objective

• Context
• 2003 Inventory significant contribution of
  transport to AQ degradation
• Transport Fourfold increase past two decades
  (4.2 M vehicles)
• Public health bronchial disease on the rise
• Objective
• Assess and quantify impact of different
  mitigation policies and measures (transport
  sector)
• Air pollution and GHG mitigation
• Health and economic impact

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Framework

• Mitigation policy identification
• Scenario development
• Baseline development (BAU)
• AQ pollutant and GHG reduction computation
• Health benefit calculation
• Scenario minus baseline
• Exposure (response function)
• Economic benefit computation
• Policy prioritization

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Policy identification

• Transport demand management
• Rail-based mass transit system
• Bikeways
• Motor Vehicle Inspection System (MVIS)
• CNG-powered buses
• CME for diesel-powered jeepneys
• Two to four-stroke tricycles
• Diesel traps

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Policy identification

• Combo1 all policies except railways and
  four-stroke conversion
• Combo2 all except railways
• Combo3 all including railways

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Methodology

• Scenario dev, example
• Policy 4-Stroke conversion
• Scenario PM emission factor of tricycles was
  reduced to 1/5 of the emission factor of
  tricycles in the baseline scenario applied to all
  tricycles in all zones

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Methodology

• PM concentration calculation
• Emissions inventory
• Dispersion modeling
• Health effects estimation
• Risk as function of exposure-response, excess
  exposure, baseline mortality/morbidity rates
• Avoided health cases (relative to baseline)
• Economic valuation
• Benefits transfer, direct cost (medical),
  indirect (lost work days)

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Methodology
Emissions (tons/year)
Annual PM concentration (ug/m3)
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Results

• Scenario development
• Baseline travel demand (2005)

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Results

• PM level calculation (mean annual concentration
  in Metro Manila, BAU and mitigation scenarios)

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Results

• Health impacts

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Results

• Economic costs
• Dominance of averted deaths and chronic
  bronchitis (similar to Chile study)

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Results

• Co-benefits
• PM mitigation tracks CO2 mitigation in all
  policy scenarios except for 4-stroke conversion
  and diesel particulate traps
• Minimal impact (on both PM and CO2) of CNG and
  CME policies
• Individually, MVIS and railways have largest
  impact on both PM and CO2
• Best is still combination of mitigation policies

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Conclusion and recommendations

• From health and economic standpoint, three
  priorities
• MVIS
• four-stroke conversion
• Metro railway system
• Minimal impact of CNG, CME policies because of
  low target vehicle population
• Significant CO2 impact from MVIS and TDM, but key
  dual impact (PM and CO2) from MVIS and Railway
  policies

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Conclusions and recommendations

• Abatement cost associated with mitigation policy
  still needs to be incorporated
• Extend analysis beyond transport to include
  stationary or area sources of pollution
• Extend assessment beyond Manila to other emerging
  cities such as Cebu, Baguio, Davao and scale up
  to national level
• Data collection, model refinement

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Case Study Beijing, China

• Integrated Measures
• Developed from Beijing Olympic Air Quality Action
  Plan.
• Include changing coal boilers to natural gas,
  improving residential lighting and A/C practices,
  LPG in taxis, expanding public transportation
  development and vehicular emission standards.
• Co-Benefits Analysis
• Compared business as usual scenario against
  scenarios with measures. Projected out 30 years.
• Models used
• LEAP 2000 (energy), ISC (air pollution) , APHEBA
  (health benefits)

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Stationary Source Fuel-Switching Beijing, China

• Stationary source fuel-switching policies in the
  Clean Energy Consumption scenario include
  changing industrial coal-fired boilers to natural
  gas, LPG for cooking in rural residences, and
  expanded natural gas power in the electrical grid.

Stationary Source Fuel-switching Measures Analyzed Indicator
Changing coal-fired boilers to natural gas 40 and 60 of coal-fired boilers will change to NG in 2010 and 2030
LPG for cooking in rural residences 20 and 40 of rural residents will use LPG for cooking in 2010 and 2030
Expanded natural gas power in the electrical grid NG power plants will produce 1200MW in 2010, and 2800MW in 2030
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Stationary Source Fuel-Switching Beijing, China
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Case Study Santiago, Chile

• Integrated Measures
• Developed from the Chilean National Environmental
  Commissions Santiago Decontamination Plan.
• Include changing diesel boilers to natural gas,
  improving energy efficiency of residential and
  commercial lighting, CNG in buses, and mandatory
  renovation of the ageing taxi cab fleet.
• Co-Benefits Analysis
• Compared business as usual scenario against
  climate policy scenario with integrated measures.
  Projected out 20 years.
• Models used
• Eulerian Box Model (air pollution), APHEBA
  (health benefits)

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Energy Efficiency in Santiago, Chile

• By switching to more efficient technologies the
  Chile team realized significant reductions in all
  emissions (i.e., GHGs and air pollutants) from
  energy generation.
• The Chile team found that of all the measures
  they analyzed, energy efficiency measures were
  the most cost-effective during peak hours of
  energy consumption for GHG and air pollutant
  emissions.

Electricity Savings Measures CO2 Emissions Reduction from BAU
Incandescent to Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) 80
Efficient Reflectors for Fluorescent Lamps 44
Sodium Lamps for Public Lighting 48
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Santiago, Chile
Comparison of the ranking of measures by their
carbon abatement costs and their PM2.5 precursors
abatement costs.
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Select IES Partner Achievements

• In-country teams have completed initial
  assessments in Argentina, Brazil, China, Chile,
  India, Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.
  Potential AQ, public health, and GHG reductions
  are significant.
• Partners in Santiago, Shanghai, and Seoul used
  results and the IES approach in developing AQ
  management plans.
• Beijing is using the IES approach to support
  their Olympics AQ planning process.
• Chile used results to support successful
  application for GEF funds to implement measures.
• Koreas analysis showed that 71 of cost of
  reducing CO2 emissions by 10 in 2010 would be
  offset by health benefits from associated AQ
  improvements.

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Partner Support

• Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model
  (APHEBA) users guide and training course.
• Provides a resource for conducting health
  benefits assessments of changes in air pollution
  concentrations.
• Training course and materials on health benefits
  analysis.
• Provides basic information and training to
  country experts with conducting health benefits
  analysis as part of integrated environmental
  analysis projects.
• Reduced form analytical tools and
  methodologies.
• Supports analysis of air pollution and GHG
  mitigation co-benefits where local data for
  detailed analysis of air pollution public health
  benefits is lacking.

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Supporting the International Co- Benefits
Community

• IES Web site launched Fall 2004 features
  information on methodology, country profiles,
  final country reports and other documents,
  presentations and publications. Available at
  lthttp//www.epa.gov/iesgt
• The IES Handbook A Resource Guide for Air
  Quality Planning The Handbook is intended to
  serve as a resource to support the development of
  co-benefits analysis projects in developing
  countries. Available at lthttp//www.epa.gov/handbo
  ok.htmgt or by request.
• International version of manual for EPAs
  Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis
  Program (BenMAP) software.
• International Training Module for developing
  countries interested in performing co-benefits
  analysis with IES methodology.

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Contact information

• Jack Fitzgerald
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• Washington, DC
• fitzgerald.jack_at_epa.gov
• IES email box at ies_at_epa.gov
• IES Web site at http//www.epa.gov/ies/