Nuclear Threat: Explosion over the San Francisco Bay Area

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Nuclear ThreatExplosion over the San Francisco
Bay Area

• Created by the Physics classes of
• Orinda Academy

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Presenters

• Steven Kastenbaum
• Ji-Eun Kim
• Monte Melnick

Contributors
Sarah Anthony Galen Borson Marie Etheridge
Alix Friedman Alex Helt Ben Ivory Keoni
Gist Abe Harder-Cattell Austin Heier Ross
Steven Kastenbaum
Ji-Eun Kim Sarah Jimison Monte Melnick Semir
Muratovic Marc Poore Jane Quigley Lake Raymond
Dustin Slack, Kevin Varela-OHara Sam
Woodruff
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(No Transcript)
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Why San Francisco?

• San Francisco is a hub for liberal views,
  artistic expression, and of course a destination
  for tourists from all around the world. It is
  home to some famous world symbols that represent
  the beauty and funky edge the city has.
• The Transamerica Building, Lombard Street and of
  course the Golden Gate Bridge are internationally
  known symbols. These as a result are perfect
  targets for terrorists.

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The Highest Level Of Destruction

• In order to fully understand the reasons for an
  attack, it is important to understand the motives
  of a terrorist. To achieve the highest level of
  devastation terrorists would consider all of the
  different options of available to them.
• Terrorists would essentially decide on placing a
  container with a nuclear weapon on an airplane.
  It would operate the same way a suitcase bomb
  would, except it would be much larger. This would
  be the most effective way to destroy a large
  population for three main reasons.

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Reason One

• First, terrorists wouldnt have to risk their
  lives in order to achieve the catastrophic
  results they are aiming to achieve. By using
  remote detonation (through cellular telephones,
  radio controls i.e.) a terrorist could be miles
  away from the site of detonation.

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Reason Two

• The ability to sneak the bomb onto a plane is the
  second reason this method of destruction is the
  best choice for a terrorist. By hiding the bomb
  in a package it would be very easy to sneak it
  onto a courier plane.
• Most of the packages placed on these planes are
  currently not screened effectively allowing a
  bomb to make it on board undetected.

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Reason Three

• The third and main reason that a plane would be
  the way an attack would take place has to do with
  the increased devastation that would occur.

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The Facts About an Elevated Explosion

• By having a nuclear blast above the ground you
  are allowing the shock of the bomb to expand.
  When a nuclear blast takes place on land, a lot
  of the shock is absorbed by the ground minimizing
  the potential damage.
• If the blast took place in the air the shock
  would expand completely without being restricted.
  This would result in a greater level of
  destruction and chaos.

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Synopsis

• Because terrorists are trying to achieve mass
  devastation there are compelling reasons why they
  would generate a nuclear attack via airplane.
• By placing a container with a nuclear weapon onto
  an airplane a terrorist can stay away from the
  blast. Sneaking it past the minimized security on
  a courier plane allows for a more destructive
  blast. The explosion is not obstructed by any
  solid barriers.

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How might such a weapon be transported and bypass
security at the airport?

• Often times cargo and international shipments
  are not x-rayed at airport security zones.
  Hopefully, this is not a normal occurrence, but
  there is always the possibility a terrorist
  organization could exploit the weak security of
  cargo transportation.
• The first and only reliable line of defense
  against the acquisition or use of "suitcase
  nuclear weapons" by terrorists lies in the
  countries that possess such devices or have the
  capability to produce them. Although the weapon
  used in this hypothetical attack is not a
  suitcase nuke it would operate in much the same
  way

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In the following hours local, state, and federal
authorities will respond to the worst terrorist
attack in U.S. history and the only nuclear
attack on U.S. soil.In a matter of seconds a
huge explosion will occur over southern San
Francisco and devastate the cities nearby. The
blast will affect communities throughout the
state, including Sacramento, the Central Valley
and those in Southern California.
The Attack
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The Early Stages

• 1249 PM (PST)
• A FedEx cargo plane from Atlanta, Georgia
  enters its approach pattern towards San Francisco
  Airport (SF0).
• 1252 PM (PST)
• While the plane is over San Francisco Bay,
  several miles southeast of the airport a nuclear
  device of 1.8 Megatons detonates.

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The initial shockwave will have an overpressure
of about 20psi at a distance of 1.4 miles from
the site of detonation. The fireball will have a
radius of around 2,600 feet. However, because it
is over water no structures will be immediately
damaged by the blast. On the other hand, the
explosion will create a series of large waves
that can damage buildings along the shoreline of
San Francisco Bay.
4 Seconds after detonation
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An overpressure of around 10psi spreads out for
2.7 miles. Any buildings in the way would be
destroyed. The San Mateo Bridge, which is the
closest bridge, will most likely be destroyed
because of its proximity to the blast.
9 Seconds after detonation
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An overpressure of 2.8psi spreads with a radius
of 5.8 miles. Reinforced structures will receive
varying amounts of destruction, with those
buildings at the edge being almost completely
undamaged. Wood and brick buildings will receive
moderate amounts of initial damage. The
devastation would become less significant at the
outside edge of the ring. Many buildings shielded
by the hills will receive little or no damage.

• 14 Seconds after detonation

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24 seconds after detonation and beyond

• This band extends out for almost 9 miles and
  has an overpressure of 1psi at its outside edge.
  At the inner edge there will be light to moderate
  amounts of damage to un-reinforced buildings of
  brick and wood.
• Reinforced structures and commercial buildings
  will receive light damage at most. This band
  extends out to cover parts of southern San
  Francisco as well as Marin and parts of Oakland.

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Radiation Fallout Effects

• Assuming there is little wind, the fallout will
  settle back to earth in a circular pattern based
  around ground zero. After the first 24 hours,
  when most of the early fallout has settled, the
  radiation level decreases roughly in proportion
  to elapsed time. Reducing exposure by leaving the
  area or remaining in a fallout shelter will
  greatly reduce the radiation effects on people.
• Significant levels of radiation will extend out
  much farther than other effects such as blast
  overpressure. Radioactive contamination will slow
  down rescue, cleanup and recovery efforts as most
  of the surrounding communities will have
  hazardously high levels of radiation for many
  weeks to come.

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Fallout Statistics
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Conclusion

• With every year that passes a nuclear terrorism
  attack becomes more and more possible. Countries
  are constantly developing innovative ways to use
  nuclear energy, which if placed in the wrong
  hands could result in catastrophic nuclear war.
• As the next generation of human beings, it is
  important for us to educate ourselves and be
  aware of the destruction that comes with using
  nuclear weapons.

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• As teenagers we have a responsibility to
  ourselves to make sure our personal and
  professional relations are strong. The best way
  to prevent war is to make friends and allies. If
  two of the major countries of the world,
  including Russia and the United States can
  maintain good relations we can help ensure that a
  nuclear attack doesnt take place.
• This conference is one important way Russian and
  American teens can come together in the name of
  peace and science. Please take the experiences
  from this trip home with you, wherever that may
  be. Remember these friendships and relationships
  so that when we become the scientists and the
  nuclear physicists of the world we will be able
  to think back to this trip and Say No To Nukes.

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Bibliography

• Monterey Institute of International Studies
• http//cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/020923.htm
• National Terror Alert
• http/www.nationalterroralert.com/readyguide/suit
  casenuke.htm
• http//www.nationalterroralert.com/readyguide/nuc
  lear.htm
• Atomic Archive
• http//www.atomicarchive.com/Example/index.shtml
• http//www.atomicarchive.com/Example/De_Example1.
  shtml
• http//www.atomicarchive.com/Example/SF_Example1.
  shtml

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Bibliography

• http//www.survive-nbc.org/8.jpg
• http//www.greaterthings.com/News/911/images/far_a
  way.jpg
• http//www.earthmountainview.com/fallout2.gif
• http//www.usatoday.com/news/world/2003-09-28-iran
  -nukes_x.htm
• http//www.nuc.umr.edu/nuclear_facts/answers/answe
  rs.html
• http//www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/IaeaGlan
  ce/chapter2.html