RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES

1
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES

• Ray Leonard
• YUKOS
• Uppsala, May 22, 2001

2
Factors to consider

• Existing Reserves
• Production Capability
• Export Capability
• Future Discoveries

3
New outlook for oil reserves in Russia and Middle
East reality or political numbers game?
Russia Russian companies oil reserves
1988 Middle East (OPEC) oil reserves leap
100
93
(bn bbl)
(bn bbl)
90
81.8
700
80
634
70
600
60
46.5
40.2
500
50
40
360
400
30
20
300
10
200
0
Proved (ABC1) and 50 of C2 reserves of Top 10
100
Proved (internat. audited 99- 00 ) reserves of
Top 4
Proved (ABC1) reserves of Top 10
World Energy Council (1998)
0
1988
1987
LUK, YUKOS, SurgutNG,TNK
4 with Onako Sidanco, Rosneft,
Tatneft,Sibneft,Slavneft, Bashneft
4
Oil Equivalent Reserves
5
RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD
PRODUCTION
6
TCF GAS
7
YUKOS PRODUCTION
220,000
50
58
70
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
8
YUKOS PRODUCTION
110
100
million tons
90
80
70
Yearly Production,
60
50
40
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
YUKOS
YUKOS
110
110
100
100
million tons
million tons
90
90
80
80
70
70
Yearly Production,
Yearly Production,
60
60
50
50
40
40
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
YEAR
YEAR
9
Average daily rate per new well by Russian oil
companies in 2001
Lukoil
Slavneft
Surgutneftegas
Tatneft
ONAKO
YUKOS
Sibneft
Total
TNK
SIDANCO
Rosneft
Bashneft
10
FSU oil is competitive on the world market
Worldwide full-cycle upstream cost of oil in
2001
/bbl
Angola
16
Including Government expenses
USA, Mexican Gulf (deep)
12
USA onshore
Venezuela(conv)
USA, stripper wells
8
Russia
North Sea
China (onshore)
Indonesia
Western Canada
Western Siberia
4
Mexico
Other
Kazakhstan
Brasil
USA, Alaska
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Iraq
Venezuela(x-heavy)
Other Latin America
Kuwait
Iran
UAE
Best Companies
700
800
400
500
600
100
200
300
Reserves, bln.bbl
- finding, development and production excl.
transportation and taxes (CERA,Sept. 2001)
- 2001 finding, development and production
cost 3.7 /bbl,
11
OIL EXPORT ROUTES
12
GAS EXPORT ROUTES
13
Future Potential Reserves
14
EXPLORATION MATURITY
15
Potential of Russian Shelf

• Seven major basins, each equal to or larger than
  the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea
• Extensions of producing trends in Pechora Sea,
  Kara Sea and Sea of Okhotsk
• Thick sedimentary basins with all elements for
  hydrocarbon accumulations in other Arctic and
  Pacific Basins

16
SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2000-2010
16 MMBOD
15 MMBOD
22 MMBOD
20 MMBOD
24 MMBOD
18 MMBOD
17
CONCLUSIONS

• Russian oil reserves are probably in the range of
  90-105 Billion barrels
• These reserves will be capable of sustaining an
  additional 35 increase over current levels (7.5
  MMBOD) for an extended period
• New export oil and gas pipelines will allow
  additional Caspian oil to be marketed and supply
  Russian oil and gas to the Far East
• A combination of mature, developing and frontier
  exploration can add an estimated 40-50 billion
  barrels and larger amounts of natural gas
• Russian and Caspian oil exports will reach the
  level of one half of the Middle East by 2010
• Russian gas reserves allow a significant increase
  from current production and will assume
  increasing importance as world production
  eventually peaks and begins to decline