Towards a road map for hunger reduction

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Towards a road map for hunger reduction
Prabhu Pingali Director Agricultural and
Development Economics Division FAO, Rome, Italy

• CFS Thirtieth Session

Rome, 20-23 September 2004
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842 million are undernourished
Number of undernourished people in the developing
world observed and projected ranges compared
with the World food Summit target.
Millions
Millions
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
Undernourished People in Developing Countries
815 million
Business as usual
600
Point estimates prepared in 2003
500
On track
400
Point estimates made in 2003
300
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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Our knowledge and understanding of hunger
reduction imply 7 key lessons
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Lesson 1 Economic growth is necessary but not
sufficient for hunger reduction
1990-2002
Average GDP growth rate p.c. (gt3.5)
High
China India Indonesia
Peru Ghana Vietnam
Low
High
Jamaica Venezuela Zambia
Change in undernourishment (gt7)
Chad Niger Syria
Low
Source FAO
5
Lesson 2 Hunger reduction is fundamental for
development and poverty reduction
Poverty and undernourishment, 1995-2000
Poverty and undernourishment trends
Source FAO
6
Lesson 3 Investment in agricultural and rural
development is crucial for increased availability
and access to food and for enhancing income
earning opportunities
Trends in undernourishment and GDP, 1990-1992 to
1995-97 and 1995-97 to 1999-2001
Source FAO
7
Lesson 4 Technology development can improve food
supplies but not necessarily access to food
World rice production and price (constant
US2002), 1961-2003
Metric tonnes
1700
700
1500
600
Production
1300
500
1100
900
400
700
300
Price
500
200
300
100
100
1961
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
Source FAO/IRRI
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Lesson 5 The state could play an important role
in the provision of public goods and safety nets,
and through sound macroeconomic management
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Lesson 6 Trade openness and integration can lead
to important gains in hunger and poverty reduction
Integration in agricultural trade and
undernourishment
of population undernourished
1996-2000
Agricultural imports and exports as a share of
agricultural GDP ()
10
Lesson 7 Peace and stability are sine qua non
conditions for growth and hunger reduction
Hunger hotspots in 2004
Major armed conflict / human insecurity (latest)
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From lessons learnt to a road map for hunger
reduction the twin-track approach
Availability
Access
Stability
Utilization
Track 1 improving long-run sustainability of food
Track 2 addressing immediate food requirements
Cross-cutting conditions creating an enabling
environment for food security
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Track 1 Rural development and productivity
enhancement
Improving productivity and production capacity,
esp. of small-scale farmers
Improving transition and sequencing of emergency
rehabilitation-development efforts
Facilitating the creation of rural non-farm
enterprises
Safe drinking water and sanitation
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Track 2 Direct and immediate access to food
Food aid
Nutrition intervention and education programmes
Food for work programmes
Safety nets
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Cross-cutting conditions
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The policy agenda
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Improving productivity and production capacity,
esp. of small-scale farmers
Thailand Increased poultry production with
introduction of commercial layer birds and modern
management techniques
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Facilitating the creation of rural non-farm
enterprises
Indonesia Providing incentives for development
of agro-industry through promotion of rural
financial systems
20
Improving transition and sequencing of emergency
rehabilitation-development efforts
Afghanistan Coordination and Implementation of
Emergency Agricultural Relief and Rehabilitation
Programmes in Afghanistan
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Safe drinking water and sanitation
Tunisia The National Solidarity Fund developed
water 81 000 homes supplied with drinking water
and 122 healthcare centres built
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Food aid
Nicaragua Wheat flour provided to vulnerable
groups
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Food for work programmes
Bangladesh Food for work-employment generation
in dry season
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Safety nets
Brazil Fome Zero increased food access
through food supply
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Nutrition intervention and education programmes
Nicaragua MIFAMILIA programmes focusing on
child health
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