Early warning systems in disaster-risk reduction

1
Early warning systems in disaster-risk reduction

• Rohan Samarajiva Nuwan Waidyanatha
• IDRC-CIDA workshop
• 12 July 2007, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

2
Agenda

• Disaster risk reduction what must be done
• The LIRNEasia-Sarvodaya community-based approach
  to early warning
• Pilot project research design
• Different communication technologies
• ERP Emergency Response Planning training v no
  training
• Organized villages vs. less organized villages
• Findings
• Efficacy of Hazard Info Hub at SCMDC
• Reliability of technologies
• Reliability of systems
• Training
• Organizational development
• Women

3
Sri Lanka on December 26th, 2004
One in 500 died in Sri Lanka without one minute
of official warning
Mediated interpersonal
Physical world where hazards occur
Symbolic world where action originates
With a few insignificant exceptions, a world
without ICTs
4
How ICTs should be deployed
Physical world where hazards occur
Warnings
Mediated interpersonal
Mass media
Symbolic world where action originates
Warnings
More time to run more lives saved
5
Who should act?

• Early warning is a classic public good
• Government must supply
• Early warning is based on incomplete,
  probabilistic information and judgment
• Government must take the responsibility
• 75 of tsunami warnings in the Pacific are false
  false warnings can be dangerous
• Community preparedness (e.g., tsunami ready
  designations in the US) is vital
• But if government appears unready to act . . .
• Second-best options must be explored

6
Early warning chain (standard form)
7
Early warning chain (community based applicable
to Last-Mile HazInfo project)
From domestic international sources
8
Pilot project design, 32 villages
With ERP Training With ERP Training With ERP Training With ERP Training No ERP Training No ERP Training No ERP Training No ERP Training
Sarvodaya Stage 1, 2, 3 VSAT Urawatha (Galle) MoP Nidavur (Batticalo) FxP Thirukadalar (Trincomalee) AREA Moratuwella (Colombo) MoP Meddhawatha (Matara) MoP Thambiluvil (Kalmunai) FxP Oluville (Kalmunai) AREA Maggona (Kalutara)
Sarvodaya Stage 1, 2, 3 AREA RAD Modarapallassa (Hambantota) AREA FxP Wathegama North (Matara) AREA MoP Palmunnai (Batticalo) Control Village Abeyasinghepura (Ampara) AREA RAD Thondamanar (Jaffna) AREA FxP Karathivu (Kalmunai) AREA MoP Munnai (Jaffna) Control Village Modara (Colombo)
Sarvodaya Stage 4 VSAT Modaragama (Hambantota) MoP Diyalagoda (Kalutara) FxP Periyakallar (Batticalo) AREA Panama North (Ampara) MoP Satur-kondagnya (Batticallo) MoP Samodhagama (Hambantota) FxP Indivinna (Galle) AREA Brahamana-wattha (Galle)
Sarvodaya Stage 4 AREA RAD Kalmunai II (Kalmunai) AREA FxP Samudragama (Trincomalee AREA MoP Valhengoda (Galle) Control Village Mirissa South (Matara) AREA RAD Venamulla (Galle) AREA FxP Kottegoda (Matara) AREA MoP Thallala South (Matara) Control Village Thalpitiya (Kalutara)
AREA Addressable Radio for Emergency Alerts,
Class B configuration of WorldSpace System MoP
Java enabled Mobile Phone, Dialog-Microimage
innovation MiDews application RAD Remote Alarm
Device, Dialog-University-of-Moratuwa Innovation
FxP CDMA Wireless Fixed Phones with 1xRTT
functions, Sri Lanka Telecom VSAT Very Small
Aperture Terminals coupled with Internet Public
Alerting System Innovative-Tech Solana Networks
9
Research questions

• What technology is best for reaching the
  community?
• What emergency response plans are best for saving
  lives of villagers?
• How important is training?
• How significant is the level of organization in
  the village?
• How does the intervention affect women?
• Will the ICTs be integrated into everyday life?

10
ICTs used in reaching communities
11
Reliability of technologies systems
Reliability is the difference between the time it
takes HIH Monitor to issue the CAP message and
the time the message is received by the ICT
Guardian.
Reliability is the difference between the time it
takes HIH Monitor to receive message and the time
the message is received by the Community.
12
Early warning chain (community based applicable
to Last-Mile HazInfo project)
HIH
From domestic international sources
13
Evaluation of Hazard Info Hub (HIH) actions
Expected value 95
Download was quick because the simulation was
staged within a defined three-hour time period.
Acknowledgement was rare, possibly because they
knew it was a drill. Event of Interest step was
time consuming (2-page form) and needs
improvement. Approval was instantaneous because
the SCDMC Director was on premises during drills.
Issue of alert took time because Each ICT
required its own interface to issue the alert.
14
What is being measured . . .

• difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor
  to issue the CAP message and the time the message
  is received by the ICT Guardian

15
Reliability of technology connecting HIH to ICT
Guardians (inner circle)

Coupled ICTs performed better than individual
ICTs with the AREA FXP combination being most
reliable. Of the stand alone devices AREA is the
most reliable with 13 of 16 working The
community had difficulty in installing and
maintaining the MiDews Java applet on their MOPs
and 7 of 10 participating MOPs failed RADs were
not tested as stand alone devices. FXP and MOP
failed in North-East due to services being
deactivated due to war.
16
Early warning chain (community based applicable
to Last-Mile HazInfo project)
From domestic international sources
17
What is being measured. . .

• difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor
  to receive message and the time the message is
  received by the Community

18
Reliability of systems (outer circle)

• AREA alone is unidirectional. Stand-alone AREA,
  RAD, and VSAT score low because alerts received
  in English only all other ICT configurations
  accommodate three languages. Using a combination
  of FXP or MOP coupled with one-way Satellite
  communication device AREA is most effective
  because it
• Provides larger geographic coverage with
  Satellite covering GSM and CDMA shadow areas
• Increases bi-directional capabilities of
  communities to report local events to the Hub
• Language diversity reduces ambiguity in messages

19
Effects of training of ICT Guardians ERP
Coordinators
All 28 ICT Guardians received training. Only 16
of 32 Community ERP Coordinators received ERP
Training. ICT Guardians were coached during
live-exercises random events over longer period
would show different results. ERP Coordinators
were also coached therefore results are not
accurate. Still could not reach the required
level.
20
Effect of organizational level of villages
Organizational capacity is unimportant in the
adoption of existing technologies such as Mobile
and Fixed Phones. This is also evident from the
Control Villages, which used their own Mobile
Phones and Fixed Phones. Organizational capacity
is important when adopting new technologies such
as AREA. Unfortunately RAD was not tested in less
organized villages. It is easier to organize
disaster preparedness activities in organized
villages.
21
72 of adult participants were female because the
simulations were conducted between 0900 and
1200hrs when most men were out of the home. The
women showed enthusiasm and willingness to
participate in disaster management activities.
High participation of children occurred because
the mothers brought their children along as they
could not be left at home alone.
22
Integration of ICTs into everyday life

• Expected to get data from
• Diaries that had been provided
• From use records
• Both failed because
• Dairies were not maintained
• Use was very low
• In some cases, District Sarvodaya Offices has
  reclaimed the phones for use in urgent IDP
  activities
• Appeared that people thought we did not want them
  to use the ICTs for other purposes and did not
  volunteer information such as listening to BBC on
  AREA sets

23
Conclusions

• Critically important to get SCDMC running as a
  24/7 operation and to have disaster
  risk-reduction embedded as a central element of
  the worldview of all at Sarvodaya
• Need to integrate management of all disaster
  projects
• Think beyond project horizon (has already started
  through strategic planning process)
• Robust early warning for community-based approach
  (as opposed to direct-to-citizen approach)
  requires
• Bidirectionality of media, for local reporting
  and acknowledgement ? No stand-alone AREA sets
• CAP compliance and ability to send long messages
  in multiple languages ? AREA sets in combination
  with other media
• Mobile has potential, after software problems
  solved, but script limitations make it a distinct
  also-ran

24
Conclusions

• A community-based approach requires
• Training, both for ICT Guardians and for ERP
  Coordinators
• Higher organizational levels
• No conclusive evidence, but training through
  periodic simulations may be more effective than
  conventional training
• No conclusive evidence, but integration into
  everyday activities may not be very important in
  the case of AREA
• No conclusive evidence, but women are unlikely to
  be marginalized from community-based approaches
  in Sri Lanka

25
Project-specific conclusions

• Pilot projects on truly novel problems require
  imagination and flexibility
• Example change from strict adherence to
  no-training condition in the face of demands
  from villages
• Substitution of ham radios by other technologies
• Those closest to the action know best
• Project Director and IDRC Task Managers gave the
  main players the freedom to run the project