Lessons from the Green Revolution in the Philippines

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Lessons from the Green Revolution in the
Philippines

• Jonna P. Estudillo
• School of Economics
• University of the Philippines
• Keijiro Otsuka
• Foundation for Advanced Studies
• in International Development

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Acknowledgments

• Mahabub Hossain
• Cristina David
• IRRI-GIS staff

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Aim

• To assess the changing contributions of
  successive generations of MVs to yield increase
  and stability and changes in TFP

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Generations of MVs and their traits
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Our Approach
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The Data SetsRice Statistics Handbook,
1970-97Loop Survey data
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Figure 1Regional Map of the PhilippinesMap is
courtesy of the Geographic Information System of
the International Rice Research Institute.
Cagayan Valley
Ilocos
Southern Tagalog
Central Luzon
Bicol
Western Visayas
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Figure 2Average of Regional Rice Production
Shares in the Philippines, 1970-97
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Table 1Shares of rice production by ecosystem,
Philippines, 1970-97(Source Rice Statistics
Handbook, 1980-97)
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Table 2Adoption of MVs in the Philippines,
1970-97
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Figure 3Yield of TV and MVs in the Philippines,
1970-97
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Table 3Yield by Ecosystem
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Figure 4 Coefficient of Variation in Yields in
the Philippines, 1970-97
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Table 4 Rice Yield Function in the Philippines,
1970-97
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Summary (Philippines)

• (1) The adoption of MVs was quick in irrigated
  and rainfed ecosystems.(2) Higher MV adoption
  in irrigated ecosystem. Upland MV adoption has
  increased over time albeit slowly.(3) Yield in
  all ecosystems has increased over time. A major
  jump in yield was observed in irrigated and
  rainfed ecosystem around the late 1970s.(4)
  Yield has increased due to varietal improvements,
  better field management, and higher application
  of inputs.

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The Loop Survey Route
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Summary (Central Luzon)

• (1) MV diffusion in CL has been remarkably fast.
• (2) Irrigation is by far the most important
  factor affecting MV adoption.
• (3) Yield increased associated with MV1 has been
  minimal while yield doubled with the adoption of
  MV2. There has been no major acceleration in
  yield since the mid-1980s.
• (3) There has been an increase in TFP during the
  diffusion of MV2 followed by stagnation in TFP
  beginning in the early 1980s.

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Lessons from the Philippines

• (1) Yield increase in irrigated ecosystem has
  been by far the highest.
• (2) Yield increase has been dramatic with the
  diffusion of MV2.
• (3) Yield-increasing effects of newer MVs have
  diminished although MV contributed to
  improvements in yield in rainfed environment and
  dry season cropping.
• (4) There has been a marked increase in TFP
  following the diffusion of MV2.

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Domo Arigato Gozaimasu!