The Energy Crisis in the Automotive Industry:

1
The Energy Crisis in the Automotive Industry

• Reinventing the Wheel for a New Age
• By Nicholas Lombardi

2
Overview How do we approach the problem?

• The energy crisis, due to and within the
  automotive industry, will be one of the most
  significant issues faced globally
• Evidence in current actions
• What is the problem?
• What can be done?
• What challenges must be faced?

3
What is the problem?

• Hubberts Peak Possible rate of extraction of
  oil will rise, peak, and fall.
• Drop-off occurs when rate of discovery slows
  down.
• Crisis occurs at Hubberts Peak
• Rate of oil use is expanding as production slows

4
What does this mean?

• Time oil has been used in sizeable quantities
  200 years
• Estimated amount left in earth two trillion
  barrels (as of 2004) just over half of original
  supply.
• However, vast majority of oil used was extracted
  in last 50 years.
• Oil production today 5x rate in 1960

5
Energy the auto industry

• Theoretical peak will likely occur between 2009
  and 2020.
• Transportation accounts for over 50 of oil
  consumption
• Average American drives 13 miles per day
• 85 of transportation consists of personal cars
  and trucks
• Transportation is single most important factor in
  energy crisis

6
Changes Reactions

• Increased sales of hybrid vehicles
• Honda Insight Toyota Prius
• Decreased sales of SUVs
• Poor fuel mileage, too large
• Supplanted by crossovers
• United States lagging behind in new technologies,
  phasing-out of SUV

7
What can be done?Current Changes

• Most immediate solution increase efficiency of
  existing vehicles technologies
• Variable displacement
• Legislation forcing all automakers to achieve
  corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) 35 mpg
• 40 mpg in Europe, 45 mpg in China

8
New Technologies

• Hybrid vehicles Currently in production,
  technology advancing
• Electric motor/gas engine
• Insight Prius have given way to hybrid versions
  of other vehicles
• Ford Escape, Chevrolet Tahoe
• Chevy Volt 100 mpg, higher emphasis on electric
• Electric -Tesla full electric sports car, 200
  mile range
• Break stereotype of electrics as slow, boring
• Problems space needed to house batteries
• Charge times of electrics can be long (but
  dropping)

9
New Technologies

• Hydrogen/Fuel Cells Becoming more viable, but
  still years away from mass use
• Zero Emissions (only water vapor and heat)
• Advantage two-fold No petroleum used, no carbon
  dioxide
• More efficient 64 energy created converted into
  mechanical energy
• Vs 20 for internal combustion engines

10
New Technologies

• Fuel Cells Makes electricity from hydrogen (vs
  electric car, which stores electricity)
• Travel farther, refuel faster than electric car
• Problems 170,000 gas stations refueling 240
  million vehicles
• Transition to hydrogen infrastructure 600
  billion

11
New Technologies

• Problems Chicken-and-egg dilemma
• People wont buy fuel cell vehicles that cant be
  refueled conveniently, but industry wont build
  stations until vehicles are on the road
• Production Issues High carbon emissions and
  natural gas needed to make hydrogen
• Negates positives
• However, alternative methods being developed
• Safety issues Hydrogen must be stored at low
  temperatures and high pressure
• Safe means of transport and refueling must be
  found

12
What challenges must be faced?

• Automakers hesitant to embrace new technology
• Stability of current technologies easier than
  risking on new, untested ones
• U.S. companies face losses to meet legislation,
  must accelerate programs
• Vs Toyota took risk, built trust in hybrids,
  leads market

13
What challenges must be faced?

• Two types of approaches to RD taken
• Proactive automakers that take risks, put
  themselves at forefront of development
• GM Volt, Fuel Cell Concept
• BMW 1st functional/practical hydrogen car,
  continues to develop (Honda now has one)
• While there is a profit to be made, potential
  losses indicate an ecological mindset

14
What challenges must be faced?

• Other automakers adapt technology to keep up
• Motivated to maintain position in industry, less
  about alleviating energy crisis
• Ford hybrids versions of conventional cars
• If all automakers were proactive, technological
  development would accelerate

15
What challenges must be faced?

• Automakers actions determined by consumer trends
• In U.S., SUV has lingered despite demands for
  higher fuel efficiency cars
• Size and practicality difficult to move away from
  (ex SMART car)
• People must BUY vehicles made

16
To recap

• The energy crisis, due to and within the
  automotive industry, will be one of the most
  significant issues faced globally
• Fossil fuels approaching Hubberts Peak,
• By 2020 at latest
• Future depends on auto industry
• New technologies exist, must be developed
  committed to
• Challenges will arise, companies and consumers
  must take risk

17
Works Cited

• Broder, Josh M. "Lawmakers Set Deal on Raising
  Fuel Efficiency ." The New York Times New York
  1 December, 2007 . http//www.nytimes.com/2007/12
  /01/washington/01energy.html.
• Busby, Rebecca L. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells.
  Tulsa, Oklahoma. PenWell Corporation. 2005.
• Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Hubberts Peak. Princeton,
  New Jersey. Princeton University Press. 2001.
• Goodstein, David. Out of Gas. New York. W.W.
  Norton Company, Inc. 2004.
• Maxton, Graeme P. and John Wormwald. Time For a
  Model Change. Cambridge, UK. Cambridge
  University Press. 2004.
• Nice, Karim and Jonathan Strickland (2005). How
  Fuel Cells Work. 11 Nov 2008. Online. World
  Wide Web. http//auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-cell
  3.htm.
• Nivola, Pietro S. and Robert W. Crandall. The
  Extra Mile. Washington, D.C. The Brookings
  Institution. 1995.