Long-Range Operational Military Forecasts for Afghanistan

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Long-Range Operational Military Forecasts for
Afghanistan
1LT Sarah Moss, USAF (Mar 07)Advisors T.
Murphree, K. PfeifferBeneficiaries AFW
Applied NOAA composite analysis method to
investigate impacts from ENLN and NAO on seasonal
850 hPa temperatures and precipitation rates from
1970-2006 in Afghanistan, and identify
statistical significance (90) for each
variation, in each season, for each parameter. We
either applied a composite analysis forecast
(CAF) (statistical significance identified) or
the long-term mean as the forecast (no
statistical significance identified).
Table summary of statistically significant
results over all seasons for percentages of
occurrence of 850 hPa temperatures during the
NAO. OND had four statistically significant
temperature signals (bolded/underlined) during
the NAO over1970-2006. The CAF (to the left) is a
temperature probability forecast for OND 2007
during each possible phase of the NAO.