Disco Views of the Future: Threats

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Disco Views of the Future Threats
Opportunities
Disco Role in Distributed Resources

• No sources of new revenue
• More responsibilities without due compensation
• Continual cost cutting
• Competitive bypass
• New revenue sources
• Positive stakeholder relations
• Significant investment
• Reduction of social obligations

CROSSED WIRES SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTUREOF THE
ELECTRICDISTRIBUTION BUSINESS XENERGY Scenario
Workbook
Source Crossed Wires, XENERGY Electric
Distribution Business Study (EDB)
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Disco Views of the Future (selected) -- from
XENERGY Crossed Wires Study
Disco Role in Distributed Resources

• Distribution will continue to be a monopoly, but
  with the risk of by-pass.
• Competition customer choice will continue to
  expand, but
• 10 years from now, the regulated company will
  still be responsible for a large share of the
  load, and power cost adjustment clauses will be
  the norm.
• Regulated distribution companies will own DG
  storage devices on their systems in 5 years.
• Virtually all customers will be under time-of-use
  pricing and metered hourly.
• Technology will be more intelligent on both sides
  of the meter

Source Crossed Wires, XENERGY Electric
Distribution Business Study (EDB)
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wires.net - 1 of 4 Future Scenarios
Disco Role in Distributed Resources

• In this future, technology advances result in
  lower costs and substantially improved prospects
  for distributed generation and electricity
  storage.
• These new technologies appeal strongly to
  consumers, since they offer an economic
  alternative to central power production.
• These alternative technologies finally become
  disruptive enough to the electric distribution
  business that the need for traditional regulation
  is challenged.
• As DP begins to increase its market share, discos
  recognize for the first time a real threat to the
  monopoly franchise.
• Such competitive threats simultaneously spark new
  technology innovations in power delivery and in
  central plant production.
• With full competition, the marketplaceinstead of
  regulatorsbegins to sort out
• where distributed generation makes the most
  sense, and
• where network service continues to be the most
  economic means to provide electric service to
  customers.

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wires.net Scenario
Disco Role in Distributed Resources
Source Crossed Wires, XENERGY Electric
Distribution Business Study (EDB)
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wires.net Scenario
Disco Role in Distributed Resources
Source Crossed Wires, XENERGY Electric
Distribution Business Study (EDB)
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MA PV Potential Only Federal/State Incentives
Option 3 Assumptions
Residential
Commercial
Size (kWpac)
2.5
250
Tax Credits ()
15 Up to 1,000 max.
10 ITC
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MA PV Potential Maximum Incentives
Option 1 Assumptions
Residential
Commercial
Size (kWpac)
2.5
250
MTC Buydown (/kW)
3,500
2,800
Mainstay ERP (/kW)
150
150
Tax Credits ()
15 Up to 1,000 max.
10 ITC
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MA CHP PV Potential Low case scenario
Low Case for Massachusetts CHP PV Market
Potential (MW)
MW
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MA CHP PV Potential High case scenario
High Case for Massachusetts CHP PV Market
Potential (MW)
MW
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Green Buildings Program Framework
A 25-35 million, 5-year commitment to DG /
Energy Efficiency. At least 50 directed to PV.
Market-Driven Open to all technologies
MTC-Determined

• Feasibility Studies
• Competitive Solicitations
• Roughly 10 of annual budget

• Partnerships
• Tailor to maximize public benefit
• Roughly 45 of annual budget

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Green Schools
Affordable Green Housing
Utility Congestion Relief

• Installation Incentives
• RE component EE component (CII)
• Matrix with low base incentive by tech
• Additional funds for priority targets
• Predictable declining subsidy over time
• Rolling process for small installations
• Competitive for large installations
• Roughly 45 of annual budget

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