Trends in World Tourism

1
Trends in World Tourism
Presentation by Luigi Cabrini, UNWTO Regional
Representative for Europe
UNWTO Seminar on Tourism Marketing in a Modern
Competitive Environment 21 March 2007, Moscow
(Russian Federation)
2
International Tourism in 2006

• demand sustained by economic growth World GDP
  5.1
• avian flu did no serious harm, but is still a
  threat
• increased immunity towards external threats
• Israel/Lebanon conflict did temporarily divert
  tourism flows, but did not stop travel
• rising fuel prices did not withheld travellers
  (might have affected long-haul destinations as
  Australia, NZ) paradoxically might have favoured
  short-haul air traffic over private car

3
2006 results maintained strength

• 842 million international tourist arrivals
• Consolidation of the strong results of 2004 and
  2005
• 36 million tourist arrivals as compared to 2005

4.5
Source World Tourism Organization
4
International Tourism 2006 Consolidation of
growth

• Africa growth almost doubles the world rate
• Europe performs above expectations
• Asia Pacific consolidates position
• Results in the Americas much impacted by Canada
  and Mexico
• Middle East on the positive side despite
  obstacles

5
Source World Tourism Organization
6
36 million more
Europe 17 million (47)
Asia and the Pacific 12 million (33)
Middle East 1,5 million (4)
Africa 3 million (8)
Americas 3 million (8)
Source World Tourism Organization
7
Europe beyond expectations

• several sports and cultural events
• terrorist plot in the UK did not stop demand
• Northern destinations growing above average
• slowdown in Central Eastern Europe in spite of
  good results in many destinations
• special note to Ireland, Netherlands, Germany,
  France and Italy

8
International Tourism in Europe, 2006
International Tourist Arrivals 458 million
(3.9) or 54 of the world total Internat
ional Tourism Receipts, 2005 280 billion or 51
of the world total Receipts per arrival 625
Central and Eastern Europe 88 mn (1.0) 26 bn
(2005)
Northern Europe 56 mn (6.6) 43 bn (2005)
Western Europe 149 mn (4.3) 98 bn (2005)
Southern Mediterranean Europe 165 mn (4.2)
113 bn (2005)
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Central Eastern Europe - one of the most
dynamic subregions, but slowing the pace
Southern / Mediterranean 3.6
Europes average annual growth rate 1990 2006
3.5
Western Europe 2
Central Eastern 6.7
Northern Europe 3.7
Preliminary data
Source World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
10
Top Tourism Destinations in Central Eastern
Europe, 2005
2004 data
Source World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
11
Inbound Tourism in the Russian Federation

• International Tourist Arrivals (2005)
• 19.9 million stable over 2004
• 23 market share in Central and Eastern Europe
  and 4.5 in Europe

Data for 2006 1.5 in Visitor Arrivals 27 in
International Tourism Receipts up to September

• International Tourism Receipts (2005)
• US 5.6 billion 7 over 2004
• 17 share in Central and Eastern Europe and 2
  in Europe
• average receipts per arrival US 265 vs US
  335 in Central and Eastern Europe

Source World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
12
Factors influencing tourism in theRussian
Federation in 2006

• favourable economic situation
• growth in GDP (and per capita income)
• strong rouble (appreciated 4 vs US and 3 vs
  euro)
• improved infrastructure in the country new
  highways, modernization of airports
• visa formalities to enter the Russian Federation
  and for outbound tourists from Russia
• Increase of gasoline and natural gas prices

13
Traditional and emerging source markets
Source World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
14
Outbound Tourism in the Russian Federation

• International Tourism Expenditure (2005)
• US 17.8 billion 13 over 2004
• 9th top spender market in the world
• Expenditure per capita US 125 vs US 99 in
  Central and Eastern Europe

Data for 2006 3.5 in Trips Abroad 5 in
International Tourism Expenditure up to September

• Trips abroad
• 28.4 million trips abroad 16 over 2004
• 4th source market in Europe in volume of trips
  abroad

Source World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
15
2007 Outlook

• Sustained growth in international tourist
  arrivals 4
• Favorable economic situation sustained GDP
  growth 4.9
• 2007 870 million international tourist arrivals

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Forecast 2007
Preliminary results
Source World Tourism Organization
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World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) Longest period of sustained growth for 25
years
Source International Monetary Fund (IMF)
18
Advanced economies, GDP growth However, strength
is not coming from advanced economies
Source International Monetary Fund (IMF)
19
Emerging market and developing economies, GDP
growth Growth driven by emerging market and
developing economies
Source International Monetary Fund (IMF)
20
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision
1,6 bn
1,0 bn
842 m
Source World Tourism Organization
21
Thank you!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org