Adapting to Wildfires on the Urban Edge

1
Adapting to Wildfires on the Urban Edge in
Southern California
Jon E. Keeley UCLA,
Department of Ecology Evolutionary
Biology USGS/WERC Sequoia Field Station
Photo Chris Doolittle
2
Photo C.J. Fotheringham
3
Image NASA
4
Top Catastrophic Wildland Fires In The United
States, 1970-2007
Insured Losses (Millions 2006 )
Twelve of the top 15 catastrophic wildfires since
1970 occurred in California
Estimated insured losses. Adjusted to 2006
dollars by the Insurance Information Institute.
2007 fire losses are stated in 2007
dollars.Source ISO's Property Claim Services
Unit Insurance Information Institute.
5
Wildland-Urban Interface
Ignitions
Assets Property Habitats Lives Watersheds
Image Google Earth
6
Photo JE Keeley
7
Adenostoma fasciculatum (chamise)
Photo JE Keeley
8
Photo JE Keeley
Photo JE Keeley
9
Heteromeles arbutifolia (chaparral holly, toyon)
Photo JE Keeley
10
Phooe JE Keeley
Photo JE Keeley
11
Arctostaphylos (manzanita)
Photo JE Keeley
12
Photo USFS
13
Photo JE Keeley
14
Photos JE Keeley
15
Photo JE Keeley
16
(Keeley Fotheringham 2000)
17
Population Total Cause
Density of Fires
______________________________
per km2 per million
hectares due to per year
lightning ____________________________________

Southern CA
275 Coastal 4,290 lt1 Interior 2,803
6 lt Northern CA 25 Coastal
507 3 Interior 456 55
Image NASA
18
Photo NPS
Photo JE Keeley
Chaparral crown-fire regime
Photo JE Keeley
19
Fire Exclusion Era
Photo NPS
20
(Safford Schmidt 2008)
(Keeley Fotheringham 2003)
21
San Diego County --- 2003 2007 fires
(Keeley et al. 2009)
22
Laguna Fire 1970
Laguna 1970 Viejas Fire 2001
Laguna 1970 Viejas 2001 Cedar Fire 2003
Photo RW Halsey
23
Photo by Anna Jacobsen, Pepperdine University
24
Image Google Earth
25
(No Transcript)
26
24 Sept 1889
. Forest fires in the mountains east of Santa
Ana raged all day, and last night the light
reflected upon the sky from the fire in that
direction was plainly seen in this city
By Telegraph. Mountain Fires! Fires Near Santa
Ana. The views from the housetops was a
grand one. Never before have the people here
witnessed such a natural pyrotechnic display.
Looking eastward the entire heavens is one
bright-red glare
I was living in Orange County at the time and
well remember the great fire reported herein
from September 24 to 26 1889. Nothing like it
occurred in California since the National
Forests have been administered. In fact in my 33
years in the Service I have never seen a forest
or brush fire to equal it. This one covered an
enormous scope of country and burned very
rapidly. L.A.
Barrett (1935) Assistant Regional
Forester, USFS
Santa Margarita Ranch
27

• Year Fire County Month Acres
• --------------------------------------------------
  ----------------------
• 1889 Santiago Cyn Orange Sept 308,900
• 1932 Matilija Sta Barbara Sept 219,900
• 1970 Laguna San Diego Sept 174,200
• 1985 Wheeler 2 Ventura July 122,800
• 2003 Cedar San Diego Oct 270,575
• Day Ventura Sept 161,850
• Zaca Sta Barbara July 240,425
• 2007 Witch San Diego Oct 198,175
• 2009 Station Los Angeles August 166,600

28
Droughts
29
Photo JE Keeley
30
Drought
(Keeley Zedler 2009)
31
(Stahl et al. 2007)
32
Fire Management History (the short
version) Every decade we see one or more massive
wildfires Every decade we increase funding for
fuel modifications Every decade is followed by
a decade of even worse fire impacts
33
Risk Reduction Strategies Evaluate strategic
placement of fuel treatments (place in
cost/benefit framework)
Photo JE Keeley
34
Photo RW Halsey
35
Defensible space Barriers to fire
spread
Photo JE Keeley
36
Photo USFS
37
Photo USFS
38
Photo RW Halsey
39
(Brennan, Keeley and Pfaff, unpublished)
40
(No Transcript)
41
Strategies Reductions in burning are in the
best interest of communities and
resources Fuel treatments need to be
strategic
Photo JE Keeley
42
Summary Reductions in burning are in the best
interest of communities and resources Fuel
treatments need to be strategic (beyond the
interface we need research) Avenues for
improving fire prevention
Photo JE Keeley
43
Powerlines in embedded in wildland fuels
Photo JE Keeley
44
LA Times (November 1, 2009)
45
Santa Ana wind corridors
(Edinger et al. 1964)
46
(No Transcript)
47
Most Fires Ignite Along Roadways Barrier
s (eg 3 concrete K-rails) could prevent spread
from roads to wildlands
Photo JE Keeley
48
Summary Reductions in burning are in the best
interest of communities and resources Fuel
treatments need to be strategic (beyond the
interface we need research) Avenues for
improving fire prevention Increased local
involvement in fuel management land
planning
Photo JE Keeley
49
Image Google Earth
50
Image Google Earth
51
Image Google Earth
52
Image Google Earth
53
Fuels the two sides of the WUI
Urban fuels
Wildland fuels
Photo CJ Fotheringham
54
Sylmar trailer park prior to 2008 Sayre Fire
55
Photo JE Keeley
56
(No Transcript)
57
Acknowledgments
Thanks to colleagues, CJ Fotheringham, Richard
Halsey, Tess Brennan, Anne Pfaff, Paul Zedler,
Hugh Safford, Phil Rundel, Max Moritz, Marti
Witter, Mike Rohde, Steve Davis, Anna Jacobson,
among many others..
Photo JE Keeley