A1258690568WStAo

1
Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook
Kurt M. Guidry Associate Specialist LSU
Agricultural Center
2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook
Conference September 25,2001
2
Current Feed Grain Fundamentals

• Supply Side

• 2001 Corn Crop Estimated At 9.238 Billion
  Bushels-Down 730 From 2000/01.
• 2001 Sorghum Crop Estimated At 537 Million
  Bushels-Up 67 From 2000/01.
• World Corn Production Down About 7.24 Million
  Metric Tons From 2000/01
• World Coarse Grain Production Up 3.14 Million
  Metric Tons From 2000/01

• Demand Side

• Exports To Increase By 35 Million Bushels From
  2000/01
• Starlink, Mad Cow, and Foot and Mouth Disease
  Impacts
• Feed Demand Expected Down Slightly
• Ethanol Production Expected To Increase
  Dramatically
• 2001 Corn Use Estimated At 9.825 Billion Bushels
• 2001 Sorghum Use Estimated At 510 Million Bushels

• Supply - Demand Ending Stocks

• Corn Stocks Expected To Fall By 577 Million
  Bushels in 2001/02
• Sorghum Stocks To Increase By 28 Million Bushels
  in 2001/02
• World Coarse Grain And Corn Stocks To Fall In
  2001/02
• Expected Corn Price - 1.95 - 2.35, Sorghum
  -1.95 - 2.35

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4
U.S. Corn Planted Acres
90
80,165
79,537
79,579
79,311
79,229
78,921
76,109
75,957
77,431
74,166
80
73,239
71,479
70
60
50
40
Thousand Acres
30
20
10
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
5
U.S. Corn Production
12
10,051
9,968
9,477
9,759
9,431
10
9,233
9,207
9,238
7,934
7,475
7,400
8
6,338
6
Million Bushels
4
2
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
6
U.S. Corn Food, Seed, Industrial Use
2500
2,050
1,965
1,913
2000
1,846
1,805
1,715
1,714
1,628
1,613
1,556
1,534
1,425
1500
Million Bushels
1000
500
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
7
Projected U.S. Ethanol Production
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
-------- Million gallons per year --------
Existing Plants New Plants Total
2,219 82 2,301
2,481 518 2,999
2,689 1,329 4,018
2,774 1,387 4,161
2,852 1,575 4,427
8
U.S. Corn Feed Residual Use
7
5,850
5,800
6
5,664
5,460
5,482
5,471
5,277
5,252
4,798
4,693
5
4,680
4,609
4
Million Bushels
3
2
1
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
9
U.S. Corn Exports
2500
2,228
2,177
1,981
1,975
1,940
1,937
2000
1,797
1,727
1,663
1,584
1,504
1500
1,328
Million Bushels
1000
500
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
10
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks
2500
30
2,113
1,930
25
2000
1,775
1,521
1,558
1,718
20
1,100
1,308
1,361
1500
850
15
Percent
Million Bushels
883
1000
10
426
500
5
0
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
Ending Stocks
Stocks To Use Ratio
11
U.S. Yearly Average Feed Grain Prices
3.5
3
2.5
2
Dollars Per Bushel
1.5
1
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
Corn Prices
Grain Sorghum Prices
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U.S. Sorghum Planted Acres
15
13,177
13,097
11,064
10,535
10,052
10,000
9,882
9,787
9,429
9,626
9,200
9,288
10
Thousand Acres
5
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
14
U.S. Sorghum Production
1000
875
900
795
800
700
646
634
595
585
573
600
534
520
537
459
470
500
Million Bushels
400
300
200
100
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
15
U.S. Sorghum Food, Seed, Industrial Use
60
55
55
50
45
45
45
40
35
30
Million Bushels
22
20
19
19
20
17
17
10
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
16
U.S. Sorghum Feed Residual Use
600
516
500
457
440
401
377
400
366
365
295
284
300
262
Million Bushels
235
225
200
100
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
17
U.S. Sorghum Exports
350
291
300
277
256
245
240
250
233
223
212
205
202
198
197
200
Million Bushels
150
100
50
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
18
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks
200
25
175
143
20
150
15
72
100
Percent
53
49
Million Bushels
10
48
65
65
48
47
18
50
20
5
0
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
Ending Stocks
Stocks To Use Ratio
19
World Corn Production
700
600
500
400
300
Million Metric Tons
200
100
0
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
20
World Corn Production
300
250
200
150
Million Metric Tons
100
50
0
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
China
European Union
United States
Brazil
21
World Corn Ending Stocks
200
150
100
Million Metric Tons
50
0
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
22
World Corn Ending Stocks
120
100
80
60
Million Metric Tons
40
20
0
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
China
European Union
United States
Brazil
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24
Current Wheat Fundamentals

• Supply Side

• 2001 Wheat Crop Estimated At 1.99 B.Bushels-Down
  231 From 2000/01.
• World Wheat Production Down 7.98 Million Metric
  Tons From 2000/01

• Demand Side

• Exports To Decrease By 11 Million Bushels From
  2000/01
• Global Wheat Trade Expected To Rebound After
  Poor 2000/01
• 2001 Wheat Use Estimated At 2.322 Billion Bushels

• Supply - Demand Ending Stocks

• Wheat Stocks Expected To Fall By 241 Million
  Bushels in 2001/02
• World Wheat Stocks To Fall By 23.99 Million
  Metric Tons In 2001/02
• Expected Wheat Price - 2.70 - 3.10

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U.S. Wheat Harvested Acres
80
70
60
50
40
Million Acres
30
20
10
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
Marketing Year
All Wheat
Durum Wheat
Winter Wheat
Other Spring Wheat
27
U.S. Wheat Yield
28
U.S. Wheat Production
3000
2,547
2,481
2500
2,277
2,321
2,299
2,223
2,183
1,991
2000
1500
Million Bushels
1000
500
0
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
29
U.S. Wheat Domestic Food Use
1200
957
960
1000
914
929
907
891
883
853
800
600
Million Bushels
400
200
0
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
30
U.S. Wheat Feed And Residual Use
500
397
400
345
308
292
280
300
251
225
Million Bushels
200
154
100
0
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
31
U.S. Wheat Exports
1500
1,241
1,188
1,090
1,061
1,050
1,040
1,042
1,002
1000
Million Bushels
500
0
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
32
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks
1000
45
946
950
873
900
40
800
722
35
700
632
600
30
507
444
500
Percent
Million Bushels
376
25
400
300
20
200
15
100
0
10
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Use Ratio
33
U.S. Wheat Prices
6
5
4
Dollars Per Bushel
3
2
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
Marketing Year
Durum
Winter
Other Spring
All Wheat
34
World Wheat Production
700
609.2
588.8
586.4
579.1
571.07
581.9
600
538.4
524.0
500
400
300
Million Metric Tons
200
100
0
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
35
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36
World Wheat Ending Stocks
200
25
168.1
158.5
138.7
135.6
134.5
150
20
118.2
113.4
108.4
100
15
Percent
Million Metric Tons
50
10
0
5
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
Production
World Stocks-To-Use Ratio
U.S. Share Of Total World Stocks