IHOPE Research Information System (IRIS)

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Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth
System AIMEShttp//www.aimes.ucar.edu
AIMES Climate, Humans and Models
Integrative and Applied Earth Systems Themes have
allowed AIMES flexibility to develop productive
collaborations with diverse communities across to
social sciences and humanities IHOPE
archaeology, anthropology, historical ecology,
environmental history, ecology, information
systems, paleo climate and ecology The IPCC
climate modeling, including AOGCM, ESM, EMIC
integrated assessment with new activities in IAV
in partnership with WGCM and ESSP YSN urban
chemistry and climate, land use and decision
making, cultural use and impact of firepast,
present and future, integrating bio and
ethnographical information to understand
human-environmental processes
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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• IHOPE TIMELINES
• January Mayanist at SAR
• July YSN in France Integrating disparate data
• April/Fall e-corridor planning and workshop
  Japan
• September next IHOPE NCEAS WG integrating
  Data
• January SAR in Santa Fe tDAR and IRIS SW US
• November NCEAS IHOPE working group (3 meetings)
• IHOPE Research Prospectus published
• January Dahlem conference book published by MIT
  Press - already in second printing
• November IHOPE synthesis paper published in
  Ambio
• January IHOPE Stockholm ResPlan meeting
• March Akita Resilience and e-corridor
• November ESSP meeting in Beijing
• Summer Dahlem conference
• October Towada and Sustainable Futures
• 2004 Summer Dahlem planning meeting
• IGBP/IHDP joint meeting in Banff

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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• Summary NCEAS Working Group
• Big Picture
• How do societies change over time and what are
  the thresholds?
• How can historical ecology and environmental
  history provide a framework for contemporary and
  future policies and land use practices?
• How to develop and communicate integrative world
  histories and Earth system science across
  disciplines and communities?
• How to develop a terminology for comparative
  analyses?

• Need a minimum criteria of primary information
  for IHOPE contributions
• To achieve an integrated history, IHOPE needs
  credible methodology
• IHOPE contribution systemic understanding of the
  past to test hypotheses of e.g., resilience,
  complex systems and emergent properties of human
  interactions with the environment.

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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NEXUS Concepts for IHOPE
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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• Summary NCEAS Working Group
• Implementation
• Prototype Nexus concepts towards common
  vocabulary
• Social and Natural Variable list for a data
  system
• Addressing need to develop consistencies across
  and within communities (e.g., archaeology,
  modeling)
• Logistics
• Funding opportunities for a coordinator and
  PDS SRC and ASU
• Draft governance structure
• Next meeting implementing data system
  September, 2009

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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IPCC AR5 The data handshake between IAMs and ESMs
Kathy Hibbard (NCAR-AIMES) Nebojša Nakicenovic
(IIASA-WGCM)Steven Rose (US EPRI) Jean-Francois
Lamarque (NCAR/NOAA) Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Integrated Assessment FrameworkIPCC 2001
 

Climate Change
Impacts Vulnerabilities
A 10 year process
Socio-Economic Development Paths
Emissions
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Research and Assessment Foci by WG WGI Earth
System Model (ESM) includes global climate
modeling community WGII Impacts, Adaptation and
Mitigation (IAV) includes social and ecosystem
impacts communities WGIII Mitigation (IAM)
includes integrated assessment modeling
communities
Near-term (2035) ESM Extreme events, higher
resolution, atmospheric chemistry IAV Observed
impacts, adaptation IAM Baselines, near-term
mitigation, climate-air pollution policy
interactions
Long-term (2100 and beyond to 2300) ESM Climate
dynamics, climate-carbon cycle interactions IAV
Vulnerability studies, multiple stresses IAM
Overshoot and other stabilization, etc.
Source Moss et al., 2008
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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New scenarios development process parallel vs.
sequential approach
Figure from Moss et al., 2008
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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New scenarios development process Critical path
of scenario development
Figure from Moss et al., 2008, 2009
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Representative Concentration Pathways in
perspective
Span RF scenarios
Represent 10-90th emissions
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Scenarios selected to span climate space. (and
new scenario development process with scientific
communities as responsible party)
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Scenarios for Whom?

• Three major user communities
• Climate modeling communityneed scenarios to
  provide a coherent, internally consistent,
  time-paths for Earth System Models.

• Impacts, adaptation vulnerability modeling
  communityneed scenarios to provide a coherent,
  internally consistent, time-paths to assess the
  consequences of potential climate changes and to
  set the context for adaptive strategies.

1. Integrated assessment communityto provide a
   coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to
   assess the costs of emissions mitigation

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Integrated Assessment FrameworkIAMC , WCRP,
and IGBP

Impacts Vulnerabilities
Climate Change
Socio-Economic Development Paths
Revised Development Paths
Emissions
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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RCP data hand-shake An IAM-ESM collaboration

• IAM teams need to extend their published
  scenarios to satisfy the full data request for
  climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling
• Harmonize definitions and historic data
• Provide additional detail for emissions
• Provide additional detail for land use land
  cover change
• Extend scenarios to 2300 currently only 2100
• Consistency and coordination between the
  communities required and essential to increase
  comparability and provide a smooth transition
  from historic to future periods

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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RCP Land Use from the IAMs

• Land-use and land-use change data will also be
  provided on a gridded basis
• Cropland
• Harvested forest area (secondary forests)
• Deforested area (primary forests)
• Pasture and grazing land
• Urban land
• Supplementary data that has also been requested
  includes
• Irrigated area
• Timber and wood harvest amounts (and disposition)
• Standard of living indicator
• Fertilizer use

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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RCP Sectoral Detail

• The RCP emissions data will be provided in
  greater sectoral detail than for previous
  scenario exercises
• Ground Transportation
• International Shipping
• Aviation
• Power Plants, Energy Conversion, Extraction, and
  Distribution
• Solvents
• Waste (landfills, wastewater, non-energy
  incineration)
• Industry (combustion processing)
• Residential and Commercial
• Ag waste burning on Fields
• Agriculture (e.g. Animals, Rice, Soil)
• Savannah Burning
• Land-Use Change (Deforestation)
• Greater detail is due to spatial, chemical,
  temporal, and differing sectoral coverage within
  ESM models

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Northern High Latitudes Proposal for an FTI

• AIMES and CLiC agreement to improve global
  models process to paramaterization for carbon
  and permafrost (also with GCP and others)
• Meet in Hamburg in May land use/land cover and
  wetland (organic and anaerobic development and
  implementation from ecosystem to global models
• AIMES and CLiC to meet in Stockholm early June
  with Carbon Pools and Permafrost (CAPP) project
  of IPY
• Talking to IGAC, iLEAPS, PAGES on a more
  integrative proposal to be further discussed
  this week

IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Moving MareMIP forward a C-LAMP for Marine
Biogeochemistry in Global Models
Terrestrial land and biogeochemistry components
of the global Earth system models adapting C-LAMP
(Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project
protocols (http//www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp/)
For ocean biogeochemistry models, Corinne
Le Quère and Scott Doney with Yasuhiro Yamanaka
to begin diagnostics and model intercomparison
protocols Fall, 2009 hoping for IMBER and SOLAS
collaboration
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Young Scholars Network Fostering
trans-disciplinary understanding

• Meet other young scientists from around the
  world and disciplines.
• Exchange advice and contacts towards career
  development.
• Seek feedback, its applicability to other
  disciplines and publishing opportunities.
• Become part of a network of future scientific
  leaders, including those like yourself who could
  become journal editors, research grant donors and
  department heads.
• Develop international and cross-disciplinary
  collaborations, leading to cutting-edge science.
• Foster science education, outreach and
  in-reach by learning and informing peers and
  non-scientific communities about your work.

http//www.aimes.ucar.edu/ysn/YSN.5workshop.uxeau.
html
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Young Scholars Network Improving Efficiency!!
(thanks to Lisa!)
http//www.regonline.com/Checkin.asp?EventId70733
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IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden
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Next AIMES SSC 30 September 2 October joint
with WGCM An AIMES Open Science Meeting 10-12
May 2010 at the Edinburgh International
Conference Center Follow model from first AIMES
SSC meeting ALL Core Projects of IGBP and
relevant IHDP, ESSP projects invited.
IGBP IPO 25-27 February, 2009 Stockholm, Sweden