Transportations Impact on Climate Change Climate Changes Impact on Transportation

1
Transportations Impact on Climate ChangeClimate
Changes Impact on Transportation

• Presentation by George C. Eads
• Vice President, CRA International
• to the Business Advisory Committee
• Northwestern University Transportation Center
• Evanston, Illinois, November 1, 2005

2
PART 1TRANSPORTATIONS IMPACT ON CLIMATE
CHANGESummary of Final Report of WBCSDs
Sustainable Mobility ProjectFull results,
including the SMPs final report, Mobility 2030,
the modeling that I will describe in a couple of
minutes, and the documentation for the modeling,
can be found at http//www.sustainablemobility.org
/
3
The World Business Council for Sustainable
Development (WBCSD)

• A coalition of 170 international companies
  united by a shared commitment to sustainable
  development via the three pillars of economic
  growth, ecological balance, and social progress
• WBCSD members are drawn from more than 35
  countries and 20 major industrial sectors
• WBCSD issues reports that are the responsibility
  of the entire membership also provides
  logistical support and structure for member-led
  sector projects
• The Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) was a
  member-led sector project

4
Sustainable Mobility Project Members
5
Transport sectors share of worldwide GHG
emissions (Data for year 2000)
Source IEA WEO 2002 SMP calculations
6
Transport-related GHG emissions by
modeWell-to-wheels basis
7
Transport-related GHG emissions by
regionWell-to-wheels basis
8
Levers for reducing transport-related GHG
emissions the ASIF identity

• Emissions ASIF
• Activity (volume of passenger and freight
  travel)
• Structure (shares by mode, utilization factors,
  and vehicle type)
• Intensity (fuel use per unit of vehicle
  activity)
• Fuel type (GHG emissions characteristics of
  fuel)

9
Activity times Structure transport demand
10
Intensity times Fuel Emissions per unit of
demand
11
Two illustrative simulations conducted by the SMP

• Impact of the near-universal adoption of
  individual technologies in reducing worldwide GHG
  emissions from road vehicles
• What sort of combination of strategies would be
  required to return worldwide GHG emissions from
  road vehicles to their 2000 level by 2050?
• Taking account of
• Impact of growth of demand for personal and goods
  transport
• Share of theoretical emissions reduction
  potential of technologies assumed actually to be
  utilized
• Time required for technology introduction
• Actual in use emissions performance of vehicles
  in contrast to performance measured by government
  tests
• Time required for vehicle fleet turnover

12
Impact of near-universal adoption of specific
technologies
Note GHG emissions are being measured on a
well-to-wheels basis
13
Simulation 1 Assumptions

• Diesel ICE technology (using conventional diesel
  fuel) assumed to have 18 fuel consumption
  benefit versus prevailing gasoline ICE technology
  during entire period
• Gasoline hybrids assumed to have 30 advantage
  versus the prevailing gasoline ICE technology
  diesel hybrids, a 36 advantage fuel cell
  vehicles, a 45 advantage
• Diesels and advanced hybrids reach 100 sales
  penetration (worldwide) by 2030 in light-duty
  vehicles and medium-duty trucks
• Fuel cells reach 100 sales penetration
  (worldwide) by 2050 hydrogen produced by
  reforming natural gas, no carbon sequestration
• For carbon neutral hydrogen, change WTT
  emissions characteristics of the hydrogen used in
  fuel cell case above
• For biofuels, assume would be used in a world
  road vehicle fleet similar in energy use
  characteristics to the SMP reference fleet

14
Simulation 2 Hypothetical combined
technology strategy

• Applied five technology increments in order
  shown (impacts are additive, but order matters)
• Dieselisation. For light-duty vehicles and
  medium-duty trucks, rises to around 45 globally
  by 2030.
• Hybridisation. For light-duty vehicles and
  medium-duty trucks increases to half of all ICE
  vehicles sold by 2030.
• Conventional and advanced biofuels. The quantity
  of biofuels in the total worldwide gasoline and
  diesel pool rises steadily, reaching one-third by
  2050.
• Fuel cells using hydrogen derived from fossil
  fuels (no carbon sequestration). Mass market
  sales of light-duty vehicles and medium-duty
  trucks start in 2020 and rise to half of all
  vehicle sales by 2050.
• Carbon neutral hydrogen used in fuel cells.
  Hydrogen sourcing for fuel cells switches to
  centralized production of carbon-neutral hydrogen
  over the period 2030-2050 once hydrogen LDV
  fleets reach significant penetration at a country
  level. By 2050, 80 of hydrogen is produced by
  carbon-neutral processes.
• Assumptions of effectiveness of technologies
  identical to those used in Simulation 1

15
Results for GHG emissions from road vehicles
Note GHG emissions are being measures on a
well-to-wheels basis
16
The five strategy elements just listed do not
achieve goal of returning road vehicle
well-to-wheels GHG emissions to their 2000
level by 2050

• Two additional increments required
• Additional fleet-level vehicle energy efficiency
  improvement. SMP reference case projects an
  average improvement in the energy efficiency of
  the on-road light-duty vehicle fleet of about
  0.4 per year. We assume that the average annual
  in-use fleet-level improvement rises by an
  additional10 (i.e., from about 0.4 to about
  0.6).
• A 10 reduction in emissions due to better
  traffic flow and other efficiency improvements in
  road vehicle use.

17
Summary of transports impact on climate change

• Transport sector worldwide generates between
  one-fifth and one-quarter of GHG emissions
• Transport-related GHG emissions are increasing
  rapidly
• Likely to take decades to return transport-relate
  emissions to their levels of 2000
• Eventual reductions will result from a
  combination of
• Changes in transport technologies
• Changes in transport fuels
• Changes in transport demand
• Changes in modal mix of transport activity

18
2 CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATIONNew
TRB Committee that Bob Gallamore and I are both
members of
Following remarks do not represent views of the
Committee. Committees first meeting was
October 20-21, 2005
19
Past emissions have already raised GHG gas
concentrations significantly
Source IPCC Third Assessment, Working Group I,
Summary for Policymakers, p. 6
20
These past emissions will impact earths climate
regardless of what is done to reduce future
emissions

• Increase in average surface temperature
• Observations collected over the last century
  suggest that the average land surface temperature
  has risen 0.45-0.6C (0.8-1.0F) in the last
  century (Source USEPA).
• Climate models predict additional warming of
  about 0.6ºC without further change in atmospheric
  composition. (Source Hansen, et al, Science,
  Vol 308, p. 1431-1435, 3 June 2005.
• Increase in sea levels
• Sea level has risen worldwide approximately 15-20
  cm (6-8 inches) in the last century.
  Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) of the rise has
  resulted from the melting of mountain glaciers.
  Another 2-7 cm has resulted from the expansion of
  ocean water that resulted from warmer ocean
  temperatures. (Source USEPA)

21
One recent effort to identify potential
infrastructure impacts Metropolitan East Coast
Assessment

• Assessment covered 31 county region around New
  York City 20 million people
• Found that many infrastructure elements are at 6
  to 20 feet above current sea level and are now
  prone to flooding every few decades to a century
• The projected sea level rise of 1-3 ft by the
  year 2100 will cause these same structures to
  sustain equivalent flooding every few years to
  decades
• Flooding frequency will rise by factor of 2 to
  10, with a mean increase being a factor of about
  3 http//metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/inf
  rastructure/Infrstr-website.PPT, accessed
  10/27/05

22
Current FEMA flood zone map for 31 county area
around New York City
This and next several slides from Jacobs, et al.
Risk Increase to Infrastructure Due To Sea Level
Rise Was one section in the MEC Regional
Assessment
23
Comparison of lowest critical elevation for
selected MTA bridges and tunnel facilities
showing predicted storm surge heights
24
Same data for selected PNYNJ facilities
25
Projected impact of sea level rise of to 2090 on
frequency of storm surges of different
heightExample Newark Airport
26
Occurrence of different surge heights over
different time periods at present and by 2090
New York MTA Facilities
27
Same information NY Port Authority Facilities
28
Why should US transport sector be interested in
understanding impacts such as these?

• Transport infrastructure is very long-lived
• Once put in place, transport infrastructure is
  very difficult (and expensive) to relocate
• Current infrastructure planning is based upon
  assumption that while weather is highly variable,
  underlying climate patterns are stable
• However, a change in underlying climate patterns
  can be expected to change the expected frequency
  of unusual weather events

29
TRB Committee on Climate Change

• This study will focus on and emphasize the
  consequences of climate change on U.S.
  transportation and adaptation strategies. It
  will summarize possible consequences for
  transportation, such as from sea-level rise,
  higher mean temperatures with less extreme low
  temperatures and more hot extremes, and,
  possibly, more frequent and severe rain events.
  U.S. transportation options for adapting to
  impacts will be analyzed, including possible need
  to alter assumptions about infrastructure design
  and operations ability to incorporate key trends
  and uncertainties in long-range decision making
  and capability of institutions to plan and act on
  mitigation and adaptation strategies at the state
  and regional levels.
• Source Detailed Statement of Task

30
Thank you for your attention. Any questions?