Urban Growth and Ecosystem Modeling in the

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Urban Growth and Ecosystem Modeling in the
Palmetto State
Jeffery S. Allen
South Carolina Water Resources Center
Strom Thurmond Institute Clemson University
Strom Thurmond Institute
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WYFF 4 TheCarolinaChannel.com Carolinas See
Major Population Increases
Columbia, S.C., Updated 122 p.m. EST December
28, 2000--South Carolinas population has topped
the 4 million mark. The U.S. Census Bureau said
Thursday that 4,012,012 people lived in South
Carolina On April 1. Thats an increase of
525,309 people since the 1990 census.
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Population Changes Population Change in South
Carolina from 1950 - 2000. Population
1950 Population 1960 Change
2,117,027 2,382,594
12 Population 1960 Population 1970
2,382,594 2,590,713
9 Population 1970 Population 1980
2,590,713 3,121,820
20 Population 1980 Population 1990
3,121,820 3,486,703
12 Population 1990 Population 2000
3,486,703 4,012,012 15 South
Carolina population estimate 1999
3,885,736 Census Bureau predicts 1 million
increase by 2025
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Population Change in South Carolina Coastal
Counties from 1970 - 1990. County Population
1970 Population 1990 Change Beaufort
51,136 86,425
69 Berkeley 56,199 128,776
129 Charleston
247,650 295,039 19 Colleton
27,622 34,377
24 Dorchester 32,276 83,060
157 Georgetown 33,500 46,302
38 Horry 69,992 144,053
106 Jasper 11,885 15,487
30 South Carolina
2,590,713 3,486,703 35
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Agricultural Land Changes Crop, pasture, range
and forestland converted to developed land
between 1982 and 1992 14.3 million acres
(nationally) Prime and unique farmland
converted to developed land between 1982 and
1992 4.3 million acres (nationally) Reported
from NRCS
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Total Acres of Land Conversion by State,
1992-1997 (thousand acres) Rank STATE Acres
converted to developed land (1,000
acres) 1 Texas 1219.5 2 Pennsylvania 1123.2
3 Georgia 1053.2 4 Florida 945.3 5 North
Carolina 781.5 6 California 694.8 7 Tennessee
611.6 8 Michigan 550.8 9 South
Carolina 539.7 10 Ohio 521.2 Source
(London and Hill, 2000) -- USDA, 1997 National
Resource Inventory Summary Report
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Total Acres of Land Conversion by State Adjusted
by Acreage and Population,1992-1997 Rank
STATE inc dev land STATE land dev STATE
Acres dev/person 1 WV 38.8
NJ 6.0 NM 0.220 2 NM 35.7
MA 5.7 GA 0.156 3 PA 35.0
PA 3.9 WV 0.153 4 GA 33.1
MD 3.6 SC 0.150 5 TN 30.5
GA 2.9 MT 0.149 6 SC 30.2
SC 2.8 ME 0.136 7 ME 29.0
DE 2.8 TN 0.122 8 MS 23.3
FL 2.7 MS 0.120 9 NC 23.0
NC 2.5 NC 0.114 10 AL 22.7
TN 2.3 WY 0.114 Source (London and Hill,
2000) -- USDA, US Census Bureau and Jim Self
Center on the Future, Clemson University.
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Rates of Land Conversion in South Carolina at
Five Year Intervals, 1982-1997 Time
Period 1982-1987 1987-1992 1992-1997 inc in
dev land 13.0 14.1
30.2 Source (London and Hill, 2000) -- USDA
and Jim Self Center on the Future, Clemson
University.
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South Carolina Population Growth and Increase in
Developed Land 1992-97
Source (London and Hill, 2000) -- USDA, US
Census Bureau and Jim Self Center on the Future,
Clemson University.
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Urban Land Area to Population Growth Ratios 1960
- 1990 Baltimore 5 to 1 Charlotte 2 to
1 Detroit 13 to 1 Portland 1.3 to 1 St.
Louis 7 to 1 1970 - 1990 Chicago 11
to 1 Los Angeles 7 to 1 New York City 8
to 1 Seattle 2.3 to 1 1973
1994 Berkeley/Charleston/Dorchester SC 6 to
1
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Urban Sprawl Problems
Uncontrolled growth - urban sprawl results in
many problems such as

• Increased cost of living
• Rising taxes and pressure on infrastructure and
• urban services
• Traffic congestion and increased (travel) time
• Environmental pollution/degradation
• Loss of farm/forest land, habitats and rural
• (natural) landscape
• Downtown declines and community segregation

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Charleston Area
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Charleston Area Urban Extent 1973
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Charleston Area Urban Extent 1994
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Urban Growth Trends (Past)
1973-1994
Population Growth by 41
Urban Area Growth by 266
Sprawl Index 6 1 (ratio of urban area growth
to population growth
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Analysis Units
Murrells Inlet
---200x200 m2 grids (cells) for calibrating
models ---30x30 m2 grids (cells) for
prediction
Parcel --smallest legal unit
Part of Mount Pleasant
Zone --area demarcated by the major roads
Grid or Cell --square-shaped area
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Examples of Predictor Variables
Slope
Population Density
Cost Distance
Previous Urban
Wetland
Water Lines
Protected Land
Roads
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Urban-Land Transition Probabilities
Urban Transition Probability
Water
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Logistic Regression Prediction
Focus Group Prediction
Rule-Based Prediction
Comparison of Predicted Results of Four Models
Integrated GIS Prediction
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Predicted Urban Growth by 2030 Charleston
Area South Carolina
Urban 1973
Urban 1994
Urban 2030
Non-Urban 2030
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Water
Interstate Hwy
Secondary Hwy
Integrated Prediction
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Charleston Area Predicted Urban Extent 2030
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Charleston Urban Growth
Temporal Series Maps
Urban Area 250 Miles2
Urban Area 70 Miles2
1994
1973
Urban Area 607 Miles2
Urban Area 868 Miles2
Urban
2015
Mapped at 51 ratio for year 2015 and 2030
2030
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Examples of Scenarios
Surprises
Desires
Hurricane
Developers
Economic Recession
Environmentalists
Regulatory Policy
Planners
Development Incentives
Politicians
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Figure 1. Ecosystem impacts associated with
changing land use patterns.

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Figure 3. Feedback in relationships between human
and ecological systems associated with
urbanization.
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Social
Implementation
Alternatives
Policies
Surprise
Ecological
Reorganization
Conservative/Restorative
Exploitation
Destructive