25N

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25N
Angat/ Manila
Iloilo
Cebu
Philippines Pilot Project Areas
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JJA
Climatology

• NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 925 hPa wind
• UEA Precipitation

OND
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Composite PRCP (UEA) and Reanalysis V850
for 10 El Niño Events (1950-1998)
OND
JJA
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Reanalysis V850 and UEA PRCP
Individual El Niño Events
JJA 1972
OND 1965
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Composite PRCP (UEA) and Reanalysis V850
for 10 La Niña Events (1950-1998)
JJA
OND
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S. Luzon (Clark AB) Daily PRCP gt 1mm (1953-1991)
ENSO signal reverses between JJA and OND...
OND
cumulative probability
red El Nino black La Nina
( Kolmogorov-Smirnov test )
p lt 0.05
mm/day
JJA
cumulative probability
red El Nino black La Nina
p lt 0.01
mm/day
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(OND) Statistical Predictors Local, and
Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies
p1
p2
Plot Correlation between anomalies of
Philippines rainfall (UEA average) and SST
Predictors Time series (OND) of area-averaged
SST anomalies in above regions
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Using CCA to Study Potential Predictability

• Investigate Seasonal Predictability Through the
  Annual Cycle
• NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis V850
• ECHAM 4.5 V850 Simulations
• PRCP Analyses from UEA 1950-1998 (0.5 deg.
  lat/long grid)
• Relate Statistical Predictors to Modes of
  Large-Scale Variability

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(OND) Reanalysis u850 1st EOF
Structure (33 var.)
Time Series (1960 1998)
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(OND) Reanalysis u850 1st 3 EOFs and UEA PRCP
canonical correlation 0.80
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Much more to follow...
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(OND) 2 SST Predictors (Local and Nino 3.4 SST)
canonical correlation 0.75
p2
p1
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(OND) Reanalysis v850 1st EOF
Structure (21 var.)
Time Series (1960 1998)
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(OND) Reanalysis v850 1st 3 EOFs and UEA PRCP
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(OND) ECHAM 4.5 1st 2 EOFS u, v850 UEA PRCP
canonical correlation 0.63
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(OND) Correlation 1st EOF Reanalysis u, v SST
1st EOF u 850
1st EOF v 850
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(OND) ECHAM 4.5 Correlation 1st
EOF u, v850 SST
1st EOF u 850
1st EOF v 850