BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop

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Palaeo- distribution modelling Using the pollen
record to validate climate change impact
assessments

• Peter Brewer

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we predict, on the basis of mid-range
climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37
of species in our sample of regions and taxa will
be committed to extinction.

• Thomas et al. (2004) Nature. 427, 145-148.

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Inga edulis present day
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Inga edulis 2050s
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Inga edulis 2090s
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Future modelling
Climatic Preference or Niche
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Future modelling assumption

• The climate layers used in the modelling process
  are the only influential variables that change
  through time

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How can we test?

• We require independent locality data for a
  different time period

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How can we test?

• We require independent locality data for a
  different time period
• Pollen record provides palaeo- locality data over
  a wide area and time frame.

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Pollen data sites
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Problems with using pollen

• Standard palynological problems include
• Differential preservation
• Long distance dispersal
• Contamination
• Taxonomic resolution
• Only a few taxa are identifiable to a specific
  level

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Study species
Taxon PollenRecs GBIFRecs Distinct?
Fagus sylvatica 1324 24112 Yes
Pteridium aquilinum 1777 29197 Yes
Menyanthes trifoliata 1930 14694 Yes
Corylus avellana 2368 25118 Yes
Plantago lanceolata 3477 39638 Yes
Lycopodium clavatum 4156 2916 Yes
Calluna vulgaris 4258 28000 Yes
Typha latifolia 7313 15565 Yes
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Model Building
Model Projection
Derived from palaeo data
Derived from present data

Results
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Model Building
Model Projection
Derived from present data
Derived from palaeo data

Results
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Model runs
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The role of BDWorld

• Tools require different data formats
• Manual editing of data introduces mistakes
• Repeating experiment with different taxon and/or
  time period is laborious
• BDWorld provides an integrated environment where
  all data sources and tools can be compiled into
  one workflow

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What data and tools are needed?

• Present locality data
• Palaeo-locality data
• Present and palaeo climate data
• Modelling algorithms
• Statistical analysis

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What data and tools are needed?

• Present locality data GBIF
• Palaeo-locality data Pollen DBs
• Present and palaeo climate data Bristol
• Modelling algorithms openModeller
• Statistical analysis Custom

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Workflow
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Tool Triana/BDWorld Complete
StringGen Triana Yes
Buffer Triana Yes
Duplicator Triana Yes
ImageView Triana Yes
StringEditor Triana Yes
StringViewer Triana Yes
BDWCacheDatabase BDWorld Yes
ComboBoxBuilder BDWorld Yes
GBIFDatabase BDWorld Yes
GetLayers BDWorld Yes
GetLayerset BDWorld Yes
GetoMAlgorithms BDWorld Yes
GetSpeciesList BDWorld Yes
GetTaxon BDWorld Yes
ImageConverter BDWorld Yes
PollenLocalities BDWorld Yes
RunOpenModeller BDWorld Yes
RunProjOpenModeller BDWorld Yes
SpeciesListToMap BDWorld Yes
StatsComp BDWorld No
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Work still to complete

• Finalise choice of statistical analysis
• Fix big datasets problem
• Run analyses!

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Acknowledgements

• BBSRC
• BiodiversityWorld Team
• Michael Keith-Lucas