Ken Ducatel

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Technology Foresight and Strategic Intelligence
in Support of Policy
Ken Ducatel JRC/IPTS December 2002
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What Where is IPTS?
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What is Strategic Prospective Intelligence?

• Technology Forecasting
• on-going monitoring of technology developments
• early identification, validation and
  implementation.
• Technology Assessment
• support to decision making on technology impact
  assessment on STEEPV criteria
• identification of choices focus on specific
  problems or technologies
• Technology Foresight
• to bring together key agents stakeholders
• engaging in interactive/ open/ bottom-up
  processes
• development of shared visions (ownership)

Source A. Tübke et al. 2001 Strategic Policy
Intelligence (http//futures.jrc.es/menupage-b.ht
m)
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Foresight
Strategic planning has moved from aiming at
rational planning to more evolutionary
approaches
Foresight complements existing policy decision
making processes (e.g. forecasts, tech assessment)
Strategic Planning
Shift from predictive to exploratory approaches
especially involving users to increasing
acceptance and reflecting the realisation that
the future is to be shaped rather than predicted
Less an elite process more participatory
recognising that in a Knowledge Society
intelligence is distributed
Foresight
Future Studies
Networking
Source FOREN 2001 A Practical Guide to Regional
Foresighthttp//foren.jrc.es/
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Foresight Actors
Source FOREN 2001 http//foren.jrc.es/
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Foresight and SMEs

• SMEs and ST Strategic Intelligence
• Low relevance to SMEs - except University/High
  Tech Start-ups, Spin-offs?
• Even so do small firms have a voice?
• SMEs and Regional Foresight
• High potential relevance to SMEs
• But are SMEs really involved?
• Are the results of use?

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Regional Foresight 1 Lombardia Integrata (1999)
Registries offices
L I
Single net
Geographic Information System

• Firms
• Assistance on new firm set-up and financial
  support
• Support on form filling
• Technical support
• Progress chasing
• Platform for consultancy services (environment,
  construction).

Security
Citizens
Source Roveda http//foren.jrc.es/
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Regional Foresight 2 NE-UK Offshore
Source Olliviere http//foren.jrc.es/