Prosper Independent School District

1
Denton Independent School District
Growth Report September 26,
2006
Todays Vision ..
Tomorrows Reality.. Planning
for..
Our Future Growth..
Lantana
Preserve
2
DFW Housing Vital Signs(3Q05 2Q06)

• Dallas
  Ft. Worth DFW
• Vol. Starts (Billions) 7.71 3.66 11.38
• Median Home Price 194K 167K 184K
• Annual Starts 32,267 17,910 50,177
• Annual Closings 30,011 16,136 46,147
• FV Home Inventory 5,739 4,192 9,931
• Months Supply (1) 2.29 3.12 2.58
• Vacant Lots 61,781 32,085 93,866
• Months Supply (2) 23.0 21.5 22.4
• Lot Deliveries 36,609 15,479 52,088
• Lots Under Development 22,340 16,341 38,681
• Employment Growth 68,400 20,500
  88,900 (3.2 Growth)
• (1) 2.5 mos. is considered equilibrium (2)
  24 mos. is considered equilibrium

3
Denton ISD New Housing Activity
4
Price Range Analysis
Annual Average Start Price 216,931 Annual
Median Start Price 149,254 2Q 2006 Average
Start Price 226,572 Vacant Lot Supply 5,275
(25.1) months Future Lot Supply 4,095 (19.5)
months
5
Pilot Point ISD
Sanger ISD
Celina ISD
Aubrey ISD
Krum ISD
North
East
DISD Growth Areas
Prosper ISD
Ponder ISD
Little Elm ISD
South West
Frisco ISD
Lake Dallas ISD
Argyle ISD
Northwest ISD
Plano ISD
Lewisville ISD
6
Denton ISD Sub-division Activity NORTH
Craver Ranch 6500 Acres
Clear Creek/Hills of Denton 7000 Single Family
Rayzor Ranch
Windsor Farms
Prominence Place
Active
Future
Built-out
7

• Prominence Square
• 188 Total Lots
• At least 10 starts this year

• Windsor Farms
• 113 Total Lots
• 88 Lots remaining
• 27 Starts this year

8
Denton ISD Sub-division Activity EAST
Providence 1200 Single Family
Comanche Ridge 2400 Single Family
Savannah 2400 Single Family
Cross Oaks Ranch 2400 Single Family
Paloma Creek 3400 Single Family
Active
Future
Built-out
9
N

• Cross Oak Ranch
• 229 Total starts 3Q05-2Q06
• 217 Starts this year

• Paloma Creek South (new lots)
• 2,924 Total Lots
• 2,075 preliminary lots
• 438 home starts next 2 years

FM 720
10
Cole Ranch 10,000 Single Family 4,400
Multi-family
Hunter Ranch 10,035 Single Family 4,200
Multi-family
Wheeler Ridge 800 Single Family
Country Lakes 2000 Single Family
Denton ISD Sub-division Activity SOUTH - WEST
Lantana 3,400 Single Family
Active
Future
Built-out
11

• Country Lakes
• 1,305 Total Lots
• 211 Occupied
• 96 starts last year

N

• Wimberly at Lantana
• 59 New lots delivered in 2Q06
• 20 Starts expected this year

12
DISD 10-Year Enrollment Projections

• Projected Enrollment October 2006 19,886
• Current Enrollment as of September 25, 2006
  19,701
• Budgeted Enrollment 19,631
• Total enrollment includes all schools
• Student per home cohort levels off
• DISD enrollment will grow by 1500 students
  annually with current trend in area home sales.

13
Denton ISD 2Q06 Summary

• Annual starts are up 10 to 2,521 vs. 2Q05
  (2,287)
• Closings are level at an annual total of 2,422
  (vs. 2,437 2Q05).
• Finished vacant inventory remains level at 2.1
  months
• 417 units in 2Q06 (424 units in 1Q06)
• Paloma Creek (57), Cross Oak Ranch (46), Savannah
  (44)
• 1,315 new lots delivered
• 342 in Savannah
• 205 in Robson Ranch
• 154 in Cross Oak Ranch
• 142 in Paloma Creek
• 121 in Lantana
• 118 in The Preserve at Pecan Creek
• 107 in Villages of Carmel
• 99 in Lexington Park
• 27 in Bellaire Crossing
• 5,275 vacant developed lots on the ground
• 4,095 future lots being developed
• 9,069 preliminary lots planned
• Forecast for 3Q06 2Q07 2,395 Starts