The Ningaloo Tourism Futures Forum Perth

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The Ningaloo Tourism Futures Forum- Perth

• Tourism Planning for the Ningaloo Coast
• David Wood D.Wood_at_curtin.edu.au
• Tod Jones T.Jones_at_curtin.edu.au
• Michael Hughes M.Hughes_at_curtin.edu.au

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Project Partners

• Part of the Ningaloo Collaboration Cluster
• CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship
• Sustainable Tourism CRC
• Curtin University of Technology
• Murdoch University
• Edith Cowan University

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CSIRO FlagshipWealth from the Oceans

• Project 1 - Habitats and biodiversity
• Project 2 - Human uses in the region
• Project 3 - The socio-economics of tourism
• Project 4 Socio-economic values of human use of
  Ningaloo
• Project 5 Cluster management and monitoring
  progress
• Project 6 An integrated ecosystem and
  socio-economic model for Management Strategy
  Evaluation

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Researchers

• Curtin University of Technology
• Prof. David Wood
• Dr Tod Jones
• Dr Michael Hughes
• Anna Lewis (PhD Student)
• Philippa Chandler (PhD Student)
• Karin Schianetz
• Murdoch University
• Dr David Newsome

• Edith Cowan University
• Dr Pascal Scherrer
• A/Prof. Pierre Horwitz
• Dr Jeremy Northcote
• Kelly Chapman (PhD Student)
• Sustainable Tourism CRC
• Prof Larry Dwyer (UNSW)
• Dr Tien Pham (UQ)
• Ray Spur (UNSW)
• A/Prof. Margaret Deery (UV)
• Dr Liz Fredline (Griffith)

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Ningaloo Destination Modelling project

• The Ningaloo Destination Model
• A dynamic model incorporating the economic,
  environmental and social impacts of tourism
• Returned to the regions planners and managers

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Tourism Destination Planning

• Successful regional tourism involves
• Understanding why people travel
• Understanding the attributes that the destination
  has that could satisfy future travelers needs.
• Ensuring that the integrity of these attributes,
  particularly the natural environment, is not
  compromised
• Having flexibility to adjust to changes in market
  mix or domestic/international trends
• How can a region decide what balance is needed
  between tourism development, and environmental,
  social and community resilience?

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What is a Systems Model

• A model of how the region might change over the
  next 10-20 years as a result of
• an investment strategy or
• change in a control or
• as a result of an unforeseen event an
  uncertainty

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What a Systems Model can do

• The model can
• Set up what if scenarios
• Display regional consequences of scenarios
• Calculate the flow-on and indirect impacts on the
  system
• Show links between economic, environmental and
  social parts of the system
• Compare different scenarios for regions and
  market segments
• BUT a systems model cannot predict the future
  --- However, it can suggest trends and indicate
  the broad patterns of change

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Future Capabilities

• Model will address scenarios identified in the
  2007 workshops.
• Economic sub-model
• TBL assessment of tourism impacts
• Continued development over next 10 months

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Steps for Building the Ningaloo Destination Model
Step 3 Demonstrate Discuss Progress
Step 1 Define Scenarios
Step 2 Gather Data Build Model
Step 4 Gather Data Build Model
Step 5 Tourism Learning Forum
Step 6 Develop Model
Step 9 Annual Tourism Futures Forum
Step 7 Discussion with Stakeholders
Step 8 Finished Destination Model
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Todays Forum

• Aims
• To provide an overview of progress to date.
• To provide an avenue for input into model
  development.
• To share the information that we have gathered to
  this point.
• Structure
• Demonstration of the Prototype Ningaloo
  Destination Model
• Tourism Scenarios
• Tourism Overview from 2007 Survey Data

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NDM Parameters The Sub-Regions

• Carnarvon town site
• Blowholes and the Pastoral Stations
• Coral Bay town site
• Cape Range National Park
• Northwest Cape and Exmouth Gulf
• Exmouth town site

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NDM Parameters The Visitor Clusters

• Australian families
• Fishers
• Surfers
• Australian sun seekers
• Australian short stay caravanners/campers

• Older internationals (over 35)
• Young internationals (under 35)
• Tour groups
• Australian short stay hotels
• Australian longer stay hotels

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NDM Parameters The Revised Visitor Clusters

• Fishers
• Surfers
• Winter Escapees
• Self Drive
• Fly or Bus

• Interstaters
• Older internationals (35)
• Young internationals
• Tour groups

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Demonstration of the Prototype NDM Background
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Demonstration of the Prototype NDM
BackgroundTRA NVS IVS data, 4 year rolling
average
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Where are visitors staying?
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Who are the visitors?
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What are the visitors doing (hours per year)?
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Percentage of Visitors that undertake particular
activities
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Activities rated as important or very important
()
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Where do visitors to Exmouth do these activities?
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What if there is a 3 growth across all visitor
segments with no capacity constraints?

• In 2011
• An extra 8,000 people will visit Exmouth
• Visitors will spend another 40,000 hours fishing
  in and around the Exmouth gulf and
• Another 3,000 people will visit the pastoral
  stations, spending an extra 50,000 hours fishing
  from the shore.
• An extra 30,000 hours will be spent on beaches in
  Cape Range NP.

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Changing the Visitor Mix (1) Australian
Families increase by 10 in Exmouth

• Increase of approx. 3500 visitors after 5 years
• Changes in activities occur in CRNP going to
  beaches and snorkelling
• Increase in demand in peak times for hotels

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Changing the Visitor Mix (2) Sun Seekers
increase by 10

• Approx. 1500 extra visitors after 5 years
• Fishing effort increases substantially in Exmouth
• Large increase in demand for Caravan Parks

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Changing the Visitor Mix (3) Young
Internationals increase by 10

• Approx. 3500 extra visitors after 5 years
• Little change in fishing, increased activities
  in CRNP
• Little change in accommodation demand as many
  young internationals stay in Caravan Parks

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Feedback from Regional Workshops

• The model results need to be told as stories
  about the region.
• Can the model be future proofed?
• What about the inland attractions in Carnarvon?

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Questions?
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The Four Tourism Scenarios

• What is a tourism scenario?
• A story about a possible future of tourism in the
  region.
• Importance of scenarios
• Outputs for all scenarios
• Changes to the characteristics of tourism
• Environmental indicators (water use, electricity
  use, coastal impacts)
• Social indicators (crowding, community pride,
  employment)
• Economic indicators (value added, employment)

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Scenario 1 A large increase in visitor numbers
vs. a controlled increase

• Summary
• If you can control growth in particular segments
  and for particular activities, what will be the
  costs and benefits over the longer term to the
  environment, the community and the economy? How
  will this impact tourism?
• Key Questions
• What are the limits to growth in activities,
  accommodation capacity and for the environment?
• Are there differences in impacts if there is
  growth in different visitor segments?
• How sensitive are the outcomes to regional
  constraints (in accommodation, activity levels)?

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Scenario 2 Changes to Governance

• Summary
• If there are changes in governance over
  accommodation and activities, what will be the
  impacts on tourism? Particular concerns were over
  license tenure and land release (zoning).
• Key Questions
• What are the impacts of a release of x hectares
  for commercial tourism activity or a rezoning of
  residential land (inputs to come from shire
  zoning laws)?
• How will longer license lengths impact
  competitiveness (via investment)? What if
  licenses were tradable?
• What are the impacts of changes in quotas/bag
  limits on visitor numbers and the regional
  economy?
• What would be the impacts on housing availability
  for residents and staff given the different
  growth strategies?

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Scenario 3 Varied Rates and Uncertainties of
Growth

• Summary
• This view deals with a second aspect of growth
  what if there are unexpected interruptions? What
  are the best strategies for a fast recovery
  following an unexpected event or variations in
  visitor numbers to the region?
• Key Questions
• How sensitive is the region to a variation in
  growth rate (fluctuating)?
• How much time would the region take to recover
  from a cyclone or coral bleaching?
• What are the potential effects of climate change?
  
• What would happen if there were changes to the
  transportation systems (growth in fuel prices,
  budget airline, new airport in Carnarvon)?

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Scenario 4 Sustainable technologies and
development strategies in the town centres

• Summary
• How could adoption of sustainable technologies
  could affect the capacities of the town sites to
  expand in the short, medium and long term, given
  current constraints on water, electricity and
  waste water, and the spatial allocation of
  tourists. What are the potential savings?
• Key Questions
• What are the cumulative impacts on the
  environment of tourism growth and can they be
  mitigated by sustainable technologies?
• What are the differences in both environmental
  loads and monetary savings if sustainable
  technologies were implemented now? In 5 or 10
  years?
• What are the potential trade-offs between
  different industries? Can they be mitigated by
  introducing sustainable technologies?
• Can changing the spatial allocation of tourists
  and their activities mitigate the environmental
  impacts on the region?

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Assessing all the Scenarios

• Feedback from the regional workshops
• Are we missing anything?
• In your opinion, is anything being overlooked or
  not getting enough attention?

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Tourism to Carnarvon and the Ningaloo Coast in
2007

• Based on surveys collected in June and October
  2007 and Tourism Research Australia statistics

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Visitors to the Ningaloo Coast TRA data - NVS
IVS Surveys
Four year rolling average used due to small
sample sizes.
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The Dataset

• 521 responses
• 243 in July 07 (46.6)
• 278 in October 07 (53.4)
• More surveys were collected in February, April
  and June/July. Another trip is planned for
  September.
• Surveys were distributed in the 3 town-sites and
  along the coast through Blowholes, the pastoral
  stations and Cape Range NP.

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Visitor Origin ()
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Australian State of Residence ()
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Length of Stay ( of visitors)
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Household Income of Visitors to the Ningaloo
Coast ()
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Travel Group ()
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Age Group ()
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Trip Aspects Rated as Important or Very Important
for the Ningaloo Coast ()
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Information Sources for Visitors to the Ningaloo
Coast ()
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Differences between origin groups with regards to
activities rated as important or very important
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Any Questions?