Risk Assessment at Harvest

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Risk Assessment at Harvest
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Distribution of rainfall in the main wheat
growing regions of Australia
Average Rainfall Merriden 1914 - 1988
Average Rainfall Dalby 1871 - 1988
Average Rainfall Narrabri 1880 - 1988
Average Rainfall Wanbi 1958 - 1988
Average Rainfall Maryborough 1880 - 1988
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On average 10 of Australian Wheat is downgraded
due to weather damage, costing the industry
about 30 million Annually
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Relationship Between Summer Rainfall And
Weather Damage Wheat at Receival
Data for Goondiwindi 1963-1988
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Receivals of Weather Damaged Wheat (Queensland
1995-1999)
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Outputs Annual costs, Annual production, Grain
losses, Crop return, Harvest duration, Production
by grade
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The effect of grain moisture content on costs of
harvesting
Harvest costs
Drying costs
Shedding losses
Quality losses
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The effect of harvest moisture content on return
for various cropping areas
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Receivals of Weather Damaged Wheat (Queensland
1995-1999)
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Constraints to Use of Climate Forecasts
Technical barriers to forecast use
include Accessibility official forecasts vs
other agencies Credibility lack of evaluation
impede their use Understandability official
forecasts are misinterpreted partly because of
their probabilistic nature Relevance Seasonal
rainfall vs flood forecasting Timing Different
decisions require different lead time