High Oil Prices:

1
6th Framework Programme Thematic Priority 3.2
Scientific Support to Policies DG Research of the
European Commission
High Oil Prices The HOP! modelling scenarios
Burkhard Schade, JRC IPTS
TRT Trasporti e Territorio
2
Presentation overview

• Baseline
• Uncertainties
• HOP! Scenarios
• Scenario modelling

3
Baseline Conventional oil
Source USGS
4
Baseline Assumptions on unconventional oil
Source Weto-H2
5
Baseline Assumptions on the development of the
transport sector and of energy demand




Change of value in 2030 compared to 2000
Change of value in 2050 compared to 2000
Area
Indicator


Transport Passenger

Passenger traffic vol.

? ?

? ??


-
Car

? ?

? ??


-
Train

? ?

? ?


-
Air

? ?

? ? ??

Transport Freight

Freight traffic vol.

? ??

? ? ??


-
Car

? ??

? ? ? ??


-
Train

? ??

? ? ? ??


-
Ship

? ??

? ? ??

Transport vehicles

Passenger cars

? ?

? ??


-
Gasoline

?

?


-
Diesel

? ?

? ??


Truck

? ??

? ? ??

Energy demand

Total

? ?
? ?


-
Transport

?

? ?


-
Residential

? ?

? ??


-
Industry

?

?

Scale ? 5
?
5 -
15
? ?
15 -
50
? ??
50 - 100
? ? ??
100 - 200

? ? ? ??
gt 200
?


5 and

15
? ?


15 and

50.

6
Baseline EU energy supply/demand in 2005
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
7
Baseline EU energy supply/demand in 2030
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
8
Baseline The uncertainties on oil
Source USGS
9
Baseline The uncertainties on oil
Source USGS
10
Baseline The uncertainties on oil
Source USGS
Technology development
Reduction of Production cost
Source WETO-H2
11
Possible reactions to high oil prices Overview of
HOP! scenarios
Conven- tional oil
Uncon- ven- tional oil
Baseline
High
High
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
12
HOP! scenario Low oil invest alternative fuels
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
13
HOP! scenario Low oil invest energy efficiency
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
14
HOP! scenario Low oil invest both
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
15
HOP! scenario Low oil no invest
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
16
HOP! scenario Very low oil invest alternative
fuels
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Residential
Heating oil
Biofuels
Transport
Transport fuels
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
17
HOP! scenario Very low oil invest energy
efficiency
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
18
HOP! scenario Very low oil invest both
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Heating oil
Residential
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
19
HOP! scenario Very low oil no invest
Invest Altern. Transport Fuels
Invest Energy Efficiency
Invest Both
Nothing
Energy Supply of oil and petroleum products oth.
Energy Demand
Impact on Energy Efficiency
Primary Energy
Conventional oil
Oil for industrial processes, Fuel oil
Industry
Unconventional oil
Investment in Energy Efficiency
Residential
Heating oil
Biofuels
Transport fuels
Transport
Natural Gas
Others like coal, H2 etc.
20
Determination of substitution between oil and
biofuels
Input Factors
Production and its Cost Components
Demand
RD Investment
Production of oil
Learning
Technology
Exploration cost
Amount of oil res.
Exploitation
Oil Demand
Oil Price
Production cost
Concentration
Extra cost (Tax)
Resource National.
Production of biofuel
Energy cost
Energy
Feedstock cost
Land use
Availability Land
Biofuel Demand
Biofuels Price
Learning
Technology
Capital cost
Political support
RD Investment
Extra cost (Tax)
21
Thank you for your attention!
Burkhard Schade Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies European Commission DG
JRC phone [phone]
burkhard.schade_at_ec.europa.eu www.jrc.es
TRT Trasporti e Territorio