DITTY Project: WP6 Modelled scenarios for Sacca di Goro

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DITTY Project WP6Modelled scenarios for Sacca
di Goro
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Modelled Scenarios defined for Sacca di Goro
(1st June 2005 meeting, Ispra )
Each Scenario (1 year) requires 5 days computer
time! SWxSCxSLx 36 weeks analysis
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Modelling Approach

• Watershed model ISSM
• Hydrodynamics COHERENS 3D
• Biogeochemical model for Sacca di Goro
  (continuous)
• Stage-based model for clam farming activities
  (discrete)

For WP4 the selected year was 1992. In this case
we have updated the data sets tides, meteo,
Adriatic Sea, bathymetry, clam farming area, etc.
to simulate 2003
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WATERSHED MODEL ISSM
Water quantity
Water quality
Code implementation
ISSM (Integrated Surface and Subsurface Model)
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COASTAL LAGOON MODEL
COHERENS
BIOGEOCHEMICAL
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WATERSHED SW1 SW4
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CLIMATE CHANGE SC1 SC3
mm/year
Max. 969.3 1996 Wet Min. 399 1988 Dry Median 581
,3 1986 Average
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COASTAL LAGOON SL1 SL3

• Total surface area requested for new
  concessions 8.2 km2
• 10 (acceptable by Ferrara Province)
• 30 (maximum acceptable)
• Two possible locations
• Inner part (inside the lagoon)
• Seaside (outside the lagoon)

Actual extension of the clams farming
concessions 13.0 km2 (not completely exploited)
1992
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FIRST RESULTS Watershed
Average years1992,1993,1998, 2000, 2001
Simulated years 1991-2001
Wet years 1995,1996,1999
Bonello
Romanina
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First Results Hydrodynamics (2003)
Experimental (green) and simulated (blue)
temperatures at the buoy station during 2003
Experimental (green) and simulated (blue)
salinities at the buoy station during 2003
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FIRST RESULTS Clams productivity
Business as usual (baseline)
SW1SC2SL1

• Bathymetry 2003
• Watershed median year
• Clams farming area as 2003 (from Ferrara
  Province data)

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Clam farming activities
SL2 (BAU10), inside lagoon
SL3 (BAU10 inside lagoon 20 outside lagoon)
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30 increase in clams farming area (0D approach)
30 increase in farming area (inside the lagoon)
would produce a 5 increase in clams
Reason Increase in macroalgal blooms and more
anoxic crises clams mortality
increases
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NEXT STEPS

• Assess the climate variability on clams
  productivity
• Assess the impacts of nutrients on clams
  production
• Optimize area for clams production, 3D model
• Validate the results of 0D for the DSS