Point Carbon AS

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Early mover JI projects
Jorund BuenPartner/Director, Point CarbonUNFCCC
Technical Workshop on Joint Implementation10
March 2006
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Outline

• Methodological issues
• Overview of JI activities so far
• Projects
• Forward transactions
• Assessment of impact of EU directives on JI

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How do we gather check info?

• Web searches UNFCCC, hosts, investors, project
  developers, targeted general search
• Mailinglists (climate-l etc)
• Conference material etc
• Regular contact with host investor country
  DNAs, key third parties, project developers,
  exchanges, brokers, service providers
• Interaction with high-end clients
• Calling project proponents to check status

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What is counted as a PDD?

• Latest version available physically in Point
  Carbons database,
• or
• A project that has met a set of authoritiative
  criteria of which a PDD forms part,
• and
• Not cancelled
• JI PDDs Count pre-2008 AAUs

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Sources of uncertainty Examples

• In the direction of underestimation
• Some players dont share info on new projects or
  transactions
• Some early movers might want see JISC rules
  before submitting
• Volumes lacking for some early-stage projects
• In the direction of overestimation
• Parties might not share info on cancelled/changed
  projects/transactions
• EU ETS double counting
• Project proponents dont risk-adjust their
  projects
• Lack of capacity to monitor possible delays and
  cancellations

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Overview of JI activities
Projects/ transactions Total volume -2012 (MtCO2e)
Projects (total) 515 268
Projects (PDD) 189 140
Transactions 82 63,7
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Overview JI pipeline
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JI projects - host country ()
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JI projects - host country (MtCO2e) 
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JI project types ()
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JI project types (PDDs, ktCO2e)
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CDM project types (PDDs, ktCO2e)
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JI projects PDD vs (pre)determination
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Forward JI contracts Host country (MtCO2e)
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Forward JI contracts per year
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Investor countries Contracts
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JI and EU legislation
Project Sectors 2005-07 2008-12 Impact of EU legislation
ETS Trading Sector e.g. Biomass fuel switch Combustion Oil refineries Metal Mineral Pulp and paper EUAs through the ETS EUAs / ERUs through JI project Thermal input gt 20 MW ERUs deducted from operators EUA account Thermal output gt 50 MW Possible change of baseline (LCP Directive)
Non ETS project e.g. Wind Farm e.g. Landfill Project Connected to grid Renewables Demand-side en. effic. AAUs - Early credits ERUs through a JI project No impact if host country has reserve fund ERUs deducted from national registry No influence from Acquis
Non ETS project e.g. Wind Farm e.g. Landfill Project Not covered by EU ETS, not grid-connected AAUs Early credits ERUs through a JI project No influence from linking directive. Change of baseline to 1 May 2012, at earliest
Enlarged ETS e.g. Chemical Facility (N2O) AAUs Early credits ERUs /EUAs through JI project ERUs deducted from national registry Possible change in 2008-12
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EU directives deadlines
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Conclusions

• Considerable early mover activity
• Project development
• Forward transactions
• Buyers almost exclusively government
  multilateral
• Host countries Romania, Bulgaria EU25
• Russia, Ukraine (and Poland) emerging
• Investor countries Dutch domination, others
  absent
• Large portion of early mover projects have been
  (pre)determined
• Linking directive and other EU directives
  combined may reduce projected ERU volume
  considerably

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Thank you
Email jb_at_pointcarbon.com Direct tel. 47
932 83 350