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Title: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/


1
March 9, 2006
http//www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
2
Snow Temperature Trends in the Northwest
3
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4
Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000)
5
50 YEAR HISTORY SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT APRIL 1
6
Trends (1916-1997) in timing of peak snow
accumulation
7
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8
A warming of about 3 to 4.5 degrees F will result
in snowlines rising 1000 feet.
9
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10
Snow Model
11
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12
April 1 Average Snow Cover Extent MPI Model
Base Case
2025
2045
13
Meltdown for European Skiing?
Les Sept Laux in mid-December 2001
The Austrian mountain resort of Kitzbuhel will
eventually be cut off from its ski slopes, the
U.N. Environment Program predicts.
U.N. Warming threatens ski resorts
14
Keystones of the Torino Strategy Snow-making
machines can consume large quantities of water.
The construction of 20 new reservoirs holding
350,000 cubic meters of water had been originally
proposed. Now only nine new water storage
facilities, holding around 220,000 cubic meters,
have been built.
15
Ski Resort Economics
16
If a day is to be considered skiable, then it
must contain at least one favorable factor and no
unsuitable factors.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the
Mid-Atlantic Regions Downhill Skiing Industry,
Michigan Journal of Economics, Vol 17, 2001,
Matthew R. Balazik, Pennsylvania State University
17
An important concept is snow reliability. In
Switzerland the reliability threshold is
assumed to be 7 out of 10 good winter seasons,
with a snow cover depth of 30-50 cm, for a
minimum 100 days between December 1 and April 15.
Currently, just 85 of Swiss ski resorts meet
this snow reliability test.
Many skiers would prefer to plan their skiing
activity and vacations with certainty, certainty
that may be absent if resorts rely on natural
snow, whilst consistency allows managers to fully
utilize lift, lodge, and snowmaking
infrastructure and staff throughout the season.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE THE ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY OF THE SKIING INDUSTRY AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES IN ARIZONA, USA, Rosalind
H. Bark-Hodgins1 and Bonnie G. Colby University
of Arizona, Working Paper, 2005
18
  • Ski areas profits or losses are determined by
    New Years Day
  • Thanksgiving weekend can make or break a season

19
Impact on Idaho Ski Areas
20
Idaho Ski Areas
21
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24
The Economics of Mitigation
25
Snow Making Percents Selected Ski Areas
26
The Economics of Snow Making
  • 139,322 gallons of water for an acre foot of
    snow
  • A typical run 3 acre feet of water for one
    foot of snow
  • A typical run requires 55 tanker loads for one
    foot of snow

27
  • With humidity at 20 temperature can be as high
    as 37o F to make snow
  • The dryer the better -- night time temperatures
    are critical

28
  • Capital costs vary between 10,000 and 20,000
    per acre to be covered
  • OM costs can be as much as 25 of total
    operating costs

29
  • Water availability is the key factor in an
    areas ability to make snow

30
Adaptive Strategies
31
Climate Change - Impacts on the Tourism Industry
in Mountain Areas Rolf Bürki, Hans Elsasser,
Bruno Abegg, 1st International Conference on
Climate Change and Tourism, Djerba, 9-11 April
2003
32
Not All Ski Areas Are Convinced
The warmer winter temperatures projected by the
climate models mean ski resorts would open later
and closer earlier. Bogus Basin has experienced
these conditions the past three seasons.
Temperatures at Bogus have averaged 15 to 20
degrees above normal during that time, said Mike
Shirley, Bogus Basin general manager. "We've had
three very tough winters in a row," Shirley said.
"We haven't had that at any previous time." "I'm
not prepared to admit this is a pattern that's
going to continue," Shirley said. "Color me
skeptical." The Idaho Statesman, May 15, 2005
33
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34
When Jean-Pierre Boespflug invites you to tour
the first U.S. destination ski resort built from
scratch in more than two decades, it helps to
pack your imagination.
35
Ski Areas Are Becoming Active In Global Warming
Issues
36
TANSTAAFL
37
Navajo battle ski resort over sacred
mountain Judge denies claim that wastewater for
snowmaking is desecration
Thursday January 12, 2006
38
Spare a thought for the hibernating Mountain
Pygmy-possums roused from their annual deep sleep
under the snow by snowmaking and slope grooming
overhead. The unexpected wakeup call increases
the mouse-sized animal's energy needs at a time
when they are snowed under and their energy
levels are low.
39
Machine-grading causes particularly severe and
lasting impacts on alpine vegetation, which are
mitigated neither by time nor by revegetation
measures. The impacts of artificial snow increase
with the period of time since it was first
applied to ski piste vegetation. Extensive
machine-grading and snow production should be
avoided, especially in areas where nutrient and
water input are a concern. Ski pistes should not
be established in areas where the alpine
vegetation has a high conservation value.
Effects of ski piste preparation on alpine
vegetation, SONJA WIPF, CHRISTIAN RIXEN,
MARKUS FISCHER, BERNHARD SCHMID and VERONIKA
STOECKLI, Journal of Applied Ecology 2005 42 ,
306316
40
However, due to the greater snow mass, the
beginning of the snow-free season was delayed by
more than 2 wk. Average winter ground
temperatures under a continuous snow cover were
decreased by approximately 1C on both piste
types compared with off-piste control plots. The
results suggest that the heat balance of alpine
soils is changed by both piste types, either by
an extensive heat loss on pistes with natural
snow or by prolonged snow cover on pistes with
artificial snow.
Ground Temperatures under Ski Pistes with
Artificial and Natural Snow Journal Arctic,
Antarctic, and Alpine Research Volume 36 Issue
4 Pages 419-427 Rixen, Christian,
Haeberli, Wilfried, Stoeckli, Veronika
41

Climate Impacts Group University of
Washington King Building 4909 25th Avenue
NE Seattle, WA 98195 Ph 206.616.5350 Fax
206.616.5775 karpov_at_u.washington.edu Don
Reading, Ph.D. 6070 Hill Road Boise, ID
83703 Ph 208.342.1700 Fax
208.384.1511 dreading_at_mindspring.com
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