Forecast Labour Demand

1
Forecast Labour Demand

• NWT Bureau of Statistics
• February 28, 2007

2
Brown Bag Series 2006-07

• This is the fifth in a series of analytical
  presentations that will be undertaken in 2006-07
  by the Bureau of Statistics on behalf of ECE. The
  planned topics are
• Labour Supply in the NWT
• Employment Income Patterns
• Barriers to Labour Market Entry
• Regional Labour Market Profiles
• Forecast Occupation Demand
• A Profile of Older Workers in the NWT
• Current and past presentations are available on
  the Bureau of Statistics website at
  www.stats.gov.nt.ca

3
Presentation Overview

• This presentation provides an introduction to the
  occupation demand forecasts developed by the
  Bureau of Statistics and Education, Culture and
  Employment (ECE), and presented as the NWT Job
  Futures.
• There are four parts to the presentation
• Derivation of Labour Demand Forecasts
• Assessing Occupation Demand Forecasts
• Occupational Demand Overview
• Accessing the Labour Demand Information

4
Derivation of Labour Demand Forecasts
5
Information Sources

• The occupation demand forecasts are a product of
  several information sources
• 2004 NWT Community Survey results
• National Occupation Classification Statistics
  (NOCS)
• North American Industry Classification System
  (NAICS)
• NWT Resource Development Employment impacts

6
Methodology1

• The base, or current level, of occupation demand
  is taken from the 2004 NWT Community Survey,
  which assessed employment as at Winter 2003.
  Employment results from the survey are coded by
  both NAICS and NOCS.
• The NAICS and NOCS information is merged to form
  a matrix that links each industry to each
  occupation, and vice versa.
• The NWT Resource Development Employment Impacts
  are a product of the NWT Bureau of Statistics
  input-output (IO) model.
• A series of development projects that are either
  underway, in progress, expected, or thought to
  have high probability of occurrence were selected
  and input to the IO model.
• The IO model yields a number of outputs including
  estimates of GDP, labour income and employment.

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Methodology2

• The employment outputs from the IO model, for
  each project, are categorized to a specific
  industry (e.g., Ekati to diamond mining, etc.).
  The results were then applied against the
  NAICS/NOCS matrix to yield an occupation demand
  profile for each project.
• The occupation demand profile for each project
  was then applied to the life of each project
• For example, for the Snap Lake project, the
  occupation demand component for the construction
  phase was based on the period 2004-2006, and the
  diamond mining operations phase was based on the
  period 2007-2014
• the results for all projects for the period
  2004-2014 were aggregated to produce an
  occupation demand forecast by NOC.

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Projects Included in the Forecast
Start Project Project Date Life (yrs) Ekati
diamond mine Operations 1998 12 Diavik diamond
mine Operations 2003 14 Mineral Exploration
On-going 2004 - GNWT Expenditure
reduction 2004 2 Snap Lake diamond mine
Construction 2004 4 Snap Lake diamond mine
Operations 2007 22 Mackenzie River bridge
Construction 2005 2 Mackenzie Gas Project
Pipeline Const. 2004 7 Mackenzie Gas Project
Operations 2011 25 Gahcho Kue diamond mine
Construction 2009 3 Gahcho Kue diamond mine
Operations 2011 12
Start Project Project Date Life (yrs) Taltson
hydro Construction 2008 2 Bear River hydro
Construction 2008 3 GNWT/Federal infrastructure
program 2004 5 Cameron Hills development 5
wells 2005 8 Cameron Hills development 48
wells 2013 10 Ekati diamond mine Underground
Const. 2004 1 Diavik diamond mine Dike
Construction 2005 1 Jericho diamond mine
Construction 2005 1 Jericho diamond mine
Operations 2006 8
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Limitations to Consider

• The occupation demand forecasts are based on
  modeled results, which incorporate a number of
  assumptions.
• The relationship between industries and
  occupations is fixed over the life of the
  forecast
• The timing, scope and occurrence of specific
  projects that underlie the overall economic
  forecast may change, therefore changing the
  profile occupation demand
• The forecast of occupation demand does not
  include the impact of turn-over
• The occupational forecast rankings are relative
  rankings, not absolute.
• The rankings are determined for each occupation
  relative to all other occupations, and not in
  isolation.
• If aggregate occupation demand in the NWT over
  the forecast period is high in absolute terms,
  then the ranking of each occupation is relative
  to this overall trend.
• Therefore, it is not possible to compare these
  NWT occupational demand rankings with rankings
  from other provincial or territorial jurisdictions

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Assessing Occupation Demand Forecasts
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Ranking Criteria

• Three ranking criteria used to assess
  occupational demand forecast
• Peak Demand
• Duration of Demand
• Opportunities in Demand
• Statistical measures are derived for each of the
  141 occupations, and are then compared to
  aggregate (all occupations) measures to determine
  the occupational ranking criteria.
• The rankings assess individual occupational
  demand relative to all occupations.
• We will use (NOC 761) Trades Helpers and
  Labourers to illustrate the application of the
  three ranking criteria.

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Peak Demand

• The peak demand measure is intended to capture
  the nature of demand over time i.e., is demand
  concentrated over a short period of time, or
  distributed over the entire forecast period?
• Peak demand is determined based on the standard
  deviation of demand over the period 2004 to 2014.
  
• The standard deviation tells us how volatile
  demand is expected to be over time for each
  occupation the volatility is measured relative
  to the average demand over time.

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Peak Demand Example

• NOC761 Trades Helpers and Labourers
• The standard deviation for this occupation,
  relative to all occupations, over the period
  2004-2014 indicates that demand is concentrated
  over a short period of time - i.e., Peak High
• This occupation will see significant increases in
  employment levels, reaching their peak over a
  short period of time during pipeline
  construction.

• Top 5 Peak demand occupations
• Trades Helpers and Labourers
• Carpenters and Cabinetmakers
• Managers in Construction and Transportation
• Heavy Equipment Operators
• Motor Vehicle and Transit Drivers

14
Duration of Demand

• The demand duration measure is intended to
  estimate the sustainability of occupation demand
  over the period 2004-2014 i.e., how does demand
  at the end of the forecast period compare to
  demand over the entire period?
• The demand level at the end of period (2014) is
  taken as a ratio over the average level of demand
  between 2004 to 2014.

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Example of Duration

• NOC761 Trades Helpers and Labourers
• The demand in year 2014, relative to average
  demand over the entire period 2004-2014 for this
  occupation, indicates that demand is short-term,
  when compared to all occupations - i.e., Duration
  Low
• This occupation will see only short-term demand,
  coinciding with the short period of time during
  pipeline construction.

• Top 5 Duration demand occupations
• Other Occupations in Protective Service
• Underground Miners, Oil and Gas Drillers and
  Related Workers
• Machine Operators and Related Workers in Metal
  and Mineral Products Processing
• Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors,
  Clergy and Probation Officers
• Physical Science Professionals

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Opportunities in Demand

• The opportunity measure is intended to estimate
  any level changes in demand for occupations
  relative to the current level of demand i.e.,
  how average does forecast demand compare to
  current levels?
• The average number of job opportunities over the
  period 2004-2014 is taken as a ratio over the
  current level (i.e., 2003) of demand

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Opportunities Example

• NOC761 Trades Helpers and Labourers
• The average number of opportunities over the
  period 2004-2014, relative to the 2003 level for
  this occupation, when compared to all
  occupations, indicates that the number of
  opportunities over the forecast period will be
  high - i.e., Opportunities High
• This occupation will see significant increases in
  employment levels, reaching their peak over a
  short period of time during pipeline
  construction.

• Top 5 Opportunities demand occupations
• Central Control and Process Operators in
  Manufacturing and Processing
• Masonry and Plastering Trades
• Mine Service Workers and Operators in Oil and Gas
  Drilling
• Carpenters and Cabinetmakers
• Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters

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Occupation Demand Overview
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Shares of Forecast Occupational Demand

• At the apex of occupational demand, the proposed
  pipeline project will account for about 60 of
  total demand

20
Occupational Shares 2003 and 2008

• At the peak of demand, compared to the 2003 base
  estimates, the shares for most occupations remain
  stable except for Trades, transport equipment
  operators, where the share of demand increases
  from 17 to 23 of total.

21
Trades, Transport Equipment Operators 2008
Demand relative to 2003

• At the peak of demand, compared to the 2003 base
  estimates, plumbers, carpenters trades labourers
  are forecast to double 2003 demand levels

22
2008 Demand Pipeline and Other Projects

• Across Occupations, at the peak of demand in
  2008, the relative occupational demand shares
  from Pipeline and other projects is generally
  consistent

23
Duration of Demand

• Except that when we compare occupational demand
  for the two project groupings, by taking the 2014
  demand relative to peak (2008) demand, we see
  that other projects demand has greater duration
  over the forecast period.

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Accessing the Labour Demand Information
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Two Ways to Access Information

• ECE has printed a number of Job Futures
  publications
• ECE, College and Career Development Catherine
  Boyd, et al
• The Bureau of Statistics hosts the electronic
  version of the Job Futures on our website at
• www.jobfutures.stats.gov.nt.ca

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Website Access

• At the Job Futures main page, you can access

• How to use the Job Futures
• The methodology used to derive the Job Futures
• Current NWT labour market information
• The occupational profiles
• Select Job Futures - Occupational Profiles

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Select an Occupation of Interest

• Access the profiles by
• The listed top-level (1-digit) NOC occupations
• An alphabetical listing of the profiles
• A numerical (NOC) listing of the profiles
• Select Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators
  and Related Occupations

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Drill Down to the 3-digit Level

• The 2-digit occupations are presented
• With 3-digit occupational categories displayed
  for selection and download
• Select Trades Helpers and Labourers to download
  the profile

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Occupational Profile Trades Helpers and
Labourers
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Linking Education, Employment, Income, and
Occupational Profiles
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Contact Information
NWT Bureau of Statistics Department of
Executive [phone] info_at_stats.gov.nt.ca www
.stats.gov.nt.ca www.jobfutures.stats.gov.nt.ca