HPC in 2029: Will The March to ZettaFLOPS Succeed?

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HPC in 2029Will The March to ZettaFLOPS Succeed?

• William Groppwww.cs.uiuc.edu/wgropp

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Extrapolation is Risky

• 1989 T 20 years
• Intel introduces 486DX
• Eugene Brooks writes Attack of the Killer
  Micros
• 4 years before TOP500
• Top systems at about 2 GF Peak
• 1999 T 10 years
• NVIDIA introduces the GPU (GeForce 256)
• Programming GPUs still a challenge
• Top system ASCI Red, 9632 cores, 3.2 TF Peak
• MPI is 7 years old

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HPC Today

• High(est)-End systems
• 1 PF (1015 Ops/s) achieved on a few peak
  friendly applications
• Much worry about scalability, how were going to
  get to an ExaFLOPS
• Systems are all oversubscribed
• DOE INCITE awarded almost 900M processor hours in
  2009, many turned away
• NSF PRAC awards for Blue Waters similarly
  competitive
• Widespread use of clusters, many with
  accelerators cloud computing services
• Laptops (far) more powerful than the
  supercomputers I used as a graduate student

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NSFs Strategy for High-end Computing
Science and Engineering Capability (logarithmic
scale)
Track 1 System
UIUC/NCSA (1 PF sustained)
Track 2 Systems
Track 2d
PSC (?)
UT/ORNL (1PF peak)
TACC (500TF peak)
Track 3 Systems
Leading University HPC Centers (10-100 TF)
FY07
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY11
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HPC in 2011

• Sustained PF systems
• NSF Track 1 Blue Waters at Illinois
• Sequoia Blue Gene/Q at LLNL
• Undoubtedly others
• Still programmed with MPI and MPIother (e.g.,
  MPIOpenMP)
• But in many cases using toolkits, libraries, and
  other approaches
• And not so bad applications will be able to run
  when the system is turned on
• Replacing MPI will require some compromise
  e.g., domain specific (higher-level but less
  general)
• Still cant compile single-threaded code to
  reliably get good performance see the work in
  autotuners. Lesson theres a limit to what can
  be automated. Pretending that theres an
  automatic solution will stand in the way of a
  real solution

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HPC in 2019

• Exascale (1018) systems arrive
• Issues include power, concurrency, fault
  resilience, memory capacity
• Likely features
• Memory per core (or functional unit) smaller than
  todays systems
• 108-109 threads
• Heterogeneous processing elements
• Software will be different
• You can use MPI, but constraints will get in your
  way
• Likely a combination of tools, with
  domain-specific solutions and some automated code
  generation
• Algorithms need to change/evolve
• Extreme scalability, reduced memory
• Managed locality
• Participate in fault tolerance

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HPC in 2029

• Will we even have Zettaflops (1021 Ops/s)?
• Unlikely (but not impossible) in a single (even
  highly parallel) system
• Power (again) you need an extra 1000-fold
  improvement in results/Joule
• Concurrency
• 1011-1012 threads (!)
• See the Zettaflops workshops www.zettaflops.org
• Will require new device technology
• Will the high-end have reached a limit after
  Exascale systems?

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The HPC Pyramid in 1993
Tera Flop Class
Center Supercomputers
Mid-Range Parallel Processors and Networked
Workstations
High Performance Workstations
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The HPC Pyramid in 2029 (?)
Center Exascale Supercomputers
Single Cabinet Petascale Systems (or attack of
the killer GPU successors)
Laptops, phones, wristwatches, eye glasses
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Blue Waters ProjectPetascale Allocation Awards

• Computational Chemistry at the Petascale
• Monica Lamm, Mark Gordon, Theresa Windus, Masha
  Sosonkina, Brett Bode, Iowa State University
• Testing Hypotheses about Climate Prediction at
  Unprecedented Resolutions on the Blue Waters
  System
• David Randall, Ross Heikes, Colorado State
  University William Large, Richard Loft, John
  Dennis, Mariana Vertenstein, National Center for
  Atmospheric Research Cristiana Stan, James
  Kinter, Institute for Global Environment and
  Society Benjamin Kirtman, University of Miami
• Petascale Research in Earthquake System Science
  on Blue Waters
• Thomas Jordan, Jacobo Bielak, University of
  Southern California
• Breakthrough Petascale Quantum Monte Carlo
  Calculations
• Shiwei Zhang, College of William and Mary
• Electronic Properties of Strongly Correlated
  Systems Using Petascale Computing
• Sergey Savrasov, University of California, Davis
  Kristjan Haule, Gabriel Kotliar, Rutgers
  University

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Blue Waters ProjectPetascale Allocation Awards

• Understanding Tornados and Their Parent
  Supercells Through Ultra-High Resolution
  Simulation/Analysis
• Robert Wilhelmson, Brian Jewett, Matthew Gilmore,
  University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• Petascale Simulation of Turbulent Stellar
  Hydrodynamics
• Paul Woodward, Pen-Chung Yew, University of
  Minnesota, Twin Cities
• Petascale Simulations of Complex Biological
  Behavior in Fluctuating Environments
• Ilias Tagkopoulos, University of California,
  Davis
• Computational Relativity and Gravitation at
  Petascale Simulating and Visualizing
  Astrophysically Realistic Compact Binaries
• Manuela Campanelli, Carlos Lousto, Hans-Peter
  Bischof, Joshua Faber, Yosef Ziochower, Rochester
  Institute of Technology
• Enabling Science at the Petascale From Binary
  Systems and Stellar Core Collapse to Gamma-Ray
  Bursts
• Eric Schnetter, Gabrielle Allen, Mayank Tyagi,
  Peter Diener, Christian Ott, Louisiana State
  University

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Blue Waters ProjectPetascale Allocation Awards

• Petascale Computations for Complex Turbulent
  Flows
• Pui-Kuen Yeung, James Riley, Robert Moser,
  Amitava Majumdar, Georgia Institute of Technology
• Computational Microscope
• Klaus Schulten, Laxmikant Kale, University of
  Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• Simulation of Contagion on Very Large Social
  Networks with Blue Waters
• Keith Bisset, Xizhou Feng, Virginia Polytechnic
  Institute and State University
• Formation of the First Galaxies Predictions for
  the Next Generation of Observatories
• Brian OShea, Michigan State University Michael
  Norman, University of California at San Diego
• Super Instruction Architecture for Petascale
  Computing
• Rodney Bartlett, Erik Duemens, Beverly Sanders,
  University of Florida Ponnuswamy Sadayappan,
  Ohio State University
• Peta-Cosmology Galaxy Formation and Virtual
  Astronomy
• Kentaro Nagamine, University of Nevada at Las
  Vegas Jeremiah Ostriker, Princeton University
  Renyue Cen, Greg Bryan