luci2 Urban Simulation Model

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luci2 Urban Simulation Model

• V264 Class 19
• October 29, 2009

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Overview

• What the model does
• How the model simulates urban development
• Applications and future development

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What the model does

• Simulates urban growth for Central Indiana
• Forecasts employment change by ZIP code for major
  industry groups
• Separately simulates residential and
  employment-related development for mile-square
  grid cells
• Allows users to create and compare scenarios
  reflecting policy choices and assumptions about
  future development

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Central Indiana 2000 percent urban
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Primary Central Indiana data sources

• LandSAT satellite images for 1985, 1993, and 2000
• Land cover classification by Jeff Wilson,
  Geography
• Employment by ZIP code for 1995, 2000
• Indiana Department of Workforce Development
  (ES-202) data from IBRC

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Estimation of land use

• Reclassification of classified land cover data
• Developed set of classifiers based on
• Land cover in vicinity of each pixel
• Population and housing units from census
• Road network
• Estimated logit models to reclassify use by using
  Marion County land use data

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Model predictions

• Employment change for four industry groups by ZIP
  code
• Probabilities of residential and
  employment-related development by grid cell
• Densities of residential and employment-related
  development
• Journey to work

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Prediction of development

• Prediction of probability of conversion of land
  to residential and employment-related uses
• Based on random utility theory
• Estimated aggregated logit models
• Dependent variables logits of proportions of land
  converted 1993-2000
• Prediction of densities of development
• Estimated using 2000 data

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Predictors of probability of residential
development

• Accessibility to employment and employment change
• Availability of water and sewer
• Distances to interstate interchanges and other
  four-lane highways
• Proportion residential in 3x3 neighborhood and it
  square (logistic growth trend)
• Logit proportion converted to residential in
  preceding period (persistence)
• ISTEP scores for school districts

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Accessibility to employment
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How luci2 simulates urban development

• Works in 5-year simulation periods
• Simulation driven by exogenous, user-specified
  population growth for entire region
• Predicts employment change by industry group for
  ZIP codes
• Predicts employment-related and residential
  development

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Prediction of employment-related development

• Predicts employment-related land use per employee
  by ZIP code
• Predicts probability of conversion of land to
  employment-related uses by grid cell
• Allocates employment-related development within
  each ZIP code to grid cells with highest
  probabilities

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Prediction of residential development

• Predicts probability of conversion of land to
  residential use
• Predicts population density
• Adjusts probabilities to accommodate specified
  population growth

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Use of scenarios in luci2

• Purpose not to produce best forecast but
  alternative scenarios
• Scenarios can reflect policy choices, including
  restrictions on development on certain lands,
  utility expansion, densities, urban growth
  boundaries
• Scenarios can reflect alternative assumptions
  about factors influencing development, including
  population growth and importance of accessibility
  to employment

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The Current trends scenario

• luci2 starts with the Current trends scenario
• Assumes population growth at the rate from
  1990-2000
• Uses all model parameters as estimated for the
  period prior to 2000
• Assumes no changes to policies from recent period

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luci2 simulation results

• Results provided for active and comparison
  scenarios
• Maps show land urban and change and generalized
  land uses
• Tables provide summary results for region for
  land use and population
• Tables provide urban land and employment and
  their change by county

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luci2 enhanced user capabilities

• Automatic output of more detailed simulation
  results for start, end, and for each simulation
  round if desired
• Capability to add user scenarios

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luci2 user scenarios

• Restrictions on development in specified areas
• Minimum or maximum densities of development in
  specified areas
• Specification of areas to be provided with
  utility service
• New transportation alternatives

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luci2 as a general-purpose urban simulation model

• Models can be implemented for different areas
• With different datasets
• Using regular or irregular simulation zones
  (including TAZs)
• Using distances or travel times
• For models of varying complexity
• Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in luci2

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LUCI applications

• Indianapolis Metropolitan Planning Organization
  planning area delineation
• Land use change in Indianapolis Water Company
  watersheds, project with Center for Earth and
  Environmental Science
• Tippecanoe County stormwater management district
  development

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LUCI/T Model

• Central Indiana Suburban Transportation
  Mobility Study (INDOT)
• Analysis of transportation alternatives for
  9-county region around Indianapolis
• Custom version of model to predict land use
  impacts of outer belt

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luci2 Hendricks County comprehensive plan
scenarios

• Custom user scenarios reflecting restriction of
  new development to growth areas, alternative
  densities of new development
• Used in development of new Hendricks County
  comprehensive plan

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luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

• Developed for INDOT
• Simulates development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT
  travel demand model
• Uses travel times from travel demand model
• Will be integrated with travel demand model to
  capture interaction between land use and
  transportation

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More Information

• LUCI Websitewww.luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu
• John Ottensmannjottensm_at_iupui.edu