Bonneville Power Administration

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Bonneville Power Administration Hydsim
Model Nancy Stephan RMJOC Climate Change Data
Set Workshop June 9th, 2009
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Process for Determining Inventory
HUB Forecasts
CGS
Expected Residual Hydro Load
Streamflows (Historic or ESP)
TF Deals
LARIS
HYDSIM
Aurora
Operational Constraints
Monthly Streamflows, Initial and Ending Forebay
Elevations
Project Constraints, BiOp Objectives, Plant
Outages, Flood Control, etc
Operational Objectives
HOSS
Use of Flexibility/Uncertainty
Generation and Inventory (HLH, LLH, Super-Peak,
etc)
Inventory Spreadsheet
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Key Inputs

• Loads
• Streamflows
• Historical (2000 Level Modified streamflows
  1929-1998)
• ESP (1949-1992, generated via NWSRFS)
• Operational Constraints
• Hard Project Constraints (flow limits, elevation
  limits, etc.)
• Project Outages
• Non-Power Constraints (Flood Control, fish VECCs,
  Banks Lake adjustment, Fish Operations, BiOp, TSR
  and Supplemental Operating Agreements, etc.)

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Key Inputs (cont.)

• Operational Objectives
• Uncertain objectives (Chum Protection, summer
  spill on Lower Snake projects, etc.)
• Flexible Objectives (fall operation of Grand
  Coulee, supplemental operating agreements with
  Canada, etc.)
• Marketing and Load obligations

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Hydsim

• Month-average results, except for April and
  August which are split into two periods
• Uses a set of user defined priorities to resolve
  conflicting constraints
• Can use either ESP or historical streamflows
• Can run in two modes
• Refill initial elevations are independent of
  previous water years ending elevation)
• Continuous initial elevation are set equal to
  the previous water years ending elevation
• Multi-step process
• TSR step sets the Canadian base operation
• OPER step regulates remainder of the system and
  adjusts Canadian operation as necessary
• Requires a set of pre-/post-processing tools for
  easily preparing the constraints and for
  simplifying analysis of the results
• Regional generation fed to Aurora for price
  analysis