The Southern Global

1
The Southern Global Change Program
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Brief History
Founded in 1991 as part of the United States
Global Climate Change Research Program (1.8
billion annual budget)
Established a RWU within the SGCP in 1996 (prior
to that date the SGCP was responsible for
administering its research budget through
cooperative agreements)
Evolved to a RWU of approximately a dozen staff,
with the majority being masters level
non-paneled scientists
Program focuses on large scale, integrated
research modeling and assessment
In 2004 expanded the role of field research
In 2006, the SGCP was subsumed under the EFETAC
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Notables
The SGCP has contributed to dozens of state,
regional, national and international assessments,
and hundreds of publications, including -
(Forest Sector Lead) on 2000 National Climate
Assessment - 2004 Southern Forest Resource
Assessment - 2006 Uwharrie NF Plan Revision -
2008 North Carolina CAPAG - 2009 Science Action
Plan (SAP 4.4) Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation
The SGCP is one of (if not the) most racial
diverse units in the FS RD and it uses this
diversity to examine issues from a variety of
social and cultural view points
When last calculated (2006), the SGCP had a cost
per publication ratio over 5 times better than
the industry average
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Program Evolution
5
1999
National Integrated Ecosystem Modeling Project
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Historic Climate Climate
Change Scenarios Demographics Economics Forest
Inventory (FIA/FIM) Forest Productivity Hydrology
Land Use/Land Cover Nitrogen Deposition Soils V
alidation Plots Wildlife Linkage/Integration With
in/Between Components
VEMAP II Database COMPLETE
CCC (CGCM1) Scenario
Hadley Centre (HadCM2) Scenario COMPLETE
Sub-County Level Database Acquisition COMPLETE
County Level Projection Data (1967-2000) COMPLETE
Exotic Species Analysis
Eastwide Database NE Research Station Plots
COMPLETE
Eastwide Database Southern Research Station
Plots COMPLETE
Southern Northern Regions (Eastwide)
Wetland Hydrology Synthesis Project COMPLETE
Watershed-Level Water Quality
Simple Water Balance Model (Conceptual) COMPLETE
Soil Erosion Model (GATES) COMPLETE
NRI Database (HUC-County) COMPLETE
NADP Database Eastern US N Deposition
(Concentration) Surface
Nitrogen Deposition New England Gradient Analysis
CONUS-Soil Database, PnET-II WHC Sensitivity
COMPLETE
1998 Tree Cores, Foliage, and Litter COMPLETE
Establish 1999 Field Plots COMPLETE
1999 Tree Cores, Foliage, and Soil Analysis
1999 Litter Collection and Analysis
USGS Butterfly - Moth Database Integration
COMPLETE
PnET-II/SRTS Linkage (South) COMPLETE
PnET-II/DISTRIB-SHIFT Linkage COMPLETE
PnET-II/FIA Database Linkage
SOIL
CLIMATE
FIA
Demographic Database Integration
Products
PnET-II/SRTS Linkage (South)
VEMAP II Historic Climate Database Integration
Wetland Hydrology Synthesis
Hadley Centre (HadCM2) Climate Change Scenario
Simple Water Balance Model (Conceptual)
GATES Model
FIA/FIM Eastwide Database Integration
PnET-II/DISTRIB-SHIFT Linkage
Economic Database Integration
NRI Database Integration
1998 Field Data Analyzed
Butterfly-Moth Database Integration
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2000
National Integrated Ecosystem Modeling Project
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Climate Change
Scenarios Demographics Economics Forest Inventory
(FIA/FIM) Forest Productivity Hydrology Land
Use/Land Cover Nitrogen Deposition Soils Validat
ion Plots Wildlife Linkage/Integration Within/Bet
ween Components
CCC (CGCM1) Scenario COMPLETE
Block-Group Level Census and Economic Database
(Continental Extent) COMPLETE
SRTS (?)
FIA/FIM-Derived Forest-Type Nitrogen
Mineralization Estimates
Southern Northern Regions (Eastwide) model
complete now applying
PnET-II Hardwoods Species Parameter List
Water Balance Model (NC Coastal Watersheds) model
complete
Flatwoods Model (Forested Wetlands)
Watershed-Level Water Quality
Simple Water Balance Model (Southeast)
ANSWERS 2000 Soil Erosion Model COMPLETE (China)
PnET-II Derived PET Estimates
MRLC (Eastwide) COMPLETE
NRI Database (Point/Plot)
NADP Database Eastern US N Deposition
(Concentration) Surface COMPLETE
Nitrogen Deposition New England Gradient Analysis
and Database COMPLETE
CONUS-Soil Derived Nitrogen Mineralization
Estimates
PnET-CN Model Predictions of Nitrogen
Mineralization Nitrification
CONUS-Soil Database Expansion
2000 Tree Cores, Foliage, and Soil Analysis
Establish 2000 Field Plots (25)
1999 Tree Cores, Foliage, Soils, and Litter
Analysis COMPLETE
Butterfly/Moth Diversity Forest Fragmentation
Model (Continental Extent, County Scale)
Economic Growth Nitrogen Deposition Linkage
Socioeconomics Biodiversity Linkage
Central System Linkage PnET-II/SRTS/LULC/etc.
PnET-II/FIA Database Linkage
Avian Habitat Climate Change Integration
(Southern Appalachians)
PnET-II Vegetation Parameter Testing
ET
PnET-II Latin Hypercube Testing
SWS
SPECIES COMPOSITION
Socioeconomics Biodiversity PET Linkage
SPECIES GROWTH
PnET-II HYBRID (Stand Level Dynamics) Model
Linkage
ForCarb Biological Model Linkage
Products
Eastern US N Deposition-Concentration Surface
(NADP)
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2001
National Integrated Ecosystem Modeling Project
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Climate Change
Scenarios Demographics Economics Forest Inventory
(FIA/FIM) Forest Productivity Hydrology Land
Use/Land Cover Wildland Fire Nitrogen
Deposition Fire Validation Plots Wildlife Linka
ge/Integration Within/Between Components
PnET workshop at UNH
Hadley3 Climate Change Scenario
HUC-Level Water Stress Integration
Southern Northern Regions (Eastwide)
Gap Model Development (with UVa)
Started Regional ET model development/valid
Water Balance Model (NC Coastal Watersheds)
Flatwoods Model (Forested Wetlands)
Oak Ridge productivity validation
Simple Water Balance Model (Southeast)
ANSWERS 2000 Soil Erosion Model
MRLC (Eastwide)
PnET-CN Model Predictions of Nitrogen
Mineralization and Nitrification
Southern Pine Beetle in Spruce StudyMt. Mitchell
Live/dead biomass fire risk study (FHM)
2000 Tree Cores, Foliage, and Soil Analysis
Butterfly/Moth Diversity Forest Fragmentation
Model (Continental Extent, County Scale)
Economic Growth Nitrogen Deposition Linkage
Socioeconomics Biodiversity Linkage
Central System Linkage PnET-II/SRTS/LULC/etc.
Avian Habitat Climate Change Integration
(Southern Appalachians)
ET
SOFRA Southeastern model integration______________
_____________________
SPECIES COMPOSITION
Socioeconomics Biodiversity PET Linkage
PnET-II GAP (Stand Level Dynamics) Model Linkage
SPECIES GROWTH
Southern Forest Resource Assessment Chapter on
Abiotic Forest Stressors
Products
Eastwide live biomass/down deadwood maps
National Assessment of the Potential Consequences
of Climate Variability and Change Forest Sector
and Southeastern Region
Special Issue of Environmental Pollution
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2002
National Integrated Ecosystem Modeling Project
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Climate Change
Scenarios Demographics Economics Forest Inventory
(FIA/FIM) Forest Productivity Hydrology Land
Use/Land Cover Wildland Fire Wildland Urban
Interface Nitrogen Deposition Soils Validation
Plots Linkage/Integration Within/Between
Components
Hadley3 Climate Change Scenario COMPLETE
HUC-Level Water Stress Integration COMPLETE
EWDB to FIAdb Migration COMPLETE
PnET-II to PnET-CN Transition (species dynamics)
PnET-II Updated, Regionalized COMPLETE
PnET Hardwoods Species Parameter List
PnET DNDC integration (Li)
Foliar N Mapping SE Hardwoods Conifers (first
iteration) COMPLETE
Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Erosivity
Water Availability in China COMPLETE
Water Balance Model Validation SE Application
Eastwide MRLC (with links to VEMAP FIPS)
COMPLETE
Erosion/water quality study (with Jim Vose)plot
establishment at UNF, ARNWR, NNF___
Effects of Prescribed and Wild Fire on Water
Quality
Incorporate Forest Health Monitoring P3 Plot Data
with Eastwide DDW Estimates COMPLETE
Index of Fire Threat at WUI
Establish Biomass Plots Hydrology
Instrumentation at ARNWR UNF
Mt. Ascutney Field Sampling (Soils Roots)
COMPLETE
Cross-site comparison of N deposition impacts on
fine root dynamics
Analysis of PnET Validation Plot Data COMPLETE
THE NEXUS
Southern Forest Resource Assessment Chapter
COMPLETE
harvest
ownership
Products
Wildland Urban Interface maps
Carbon Conference
Supplemental Issue of Environmental Pollution
keystone paper in Science on elevated CO2 and
nutrients (Oren et al.)
SRS Directors Award for Stewardship
Southern Forest Resource Assessment Published
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2003
National Integrated Ecosystem Modeling Project
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Climate Change
Scenarios Demographics Economics Forest Inventory
(FIA/FIM) Forest Productivity Hydrology Land
Use/Land Cover Wildland Fire Wildland Urban
Interface Nitrogen Deposition Soils Validation
Plots Wildlife (?) Linkage/Integration Within/Bet
ween Components
SGCP Retreat Apr 28 May 2
Hadley3 Climate Change Scenario for US (at VEMAP
resolution?)
NPA data scaled to 8-digit HUC units
Species-Level PnET Development (in support of
PEcon)
PnET Hardwoods Species Parameter List
PnET DNDC integration (Li)
Fire Impacts on Forested Watersheds across an NC
Gradient DRAINMOD MIKESHE Modeling
Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Basin
Scale Hydrology (WMS, USGS)
Incorporate LULC Change into Productivity
Hydrology Research
Index of Fire Threat at WUI
Regional Scale Wildland Fire Risk Pyramid
Development
Soil Erosion Research with ANSWERS 2000 Model
PEcon
GAP/PnET/SERTS model (renamed PEcon)
harvest
ownership
Products
First draft STAR report
Special Issue of Environmental Management
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2004
Southern Global Change Program Research Agenda
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Forest Inventory (FIA/FIM)
Forest Productivity Hydrology Carbon/Towers
Wildland Fire Nitrogen Deposition Soils Extre
me Weather Events Linkage/Integration Within/Betw
een Components Tech Transfer
SGCP Retreat Apr 28 May 1
FIA biomass resource utilization
Ozone impacts on mature forests (McLaughlin)
PnET DNDC integration (Li)
LiDAR and AET modeling (Lu)
WSSI initial development (no return flow or
groundwater)
WSSI refinement (RF and groundwater)
WeyCo/Parker Tract ground plots installed and
monitored
insects carbon sequestration paper
WeyCo Parker Tract tower installed, up and running
USCCC consulting on Chinese and US tower specs
(location, permits, etc)
Croatan NF hydrology monitoring
Croatan and Uwharrie NF pre-burn biomass sampling
FIA P2 and P3 analysis for down dead wood fuel
modeling
Mt. Ascutney root collection and analysis
Mt. Ascutney root analysis (2003 samples)
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge
hurricane effects sampling and paper
PEcon model development and troubleshooting
(light curves, species level updates
NSF NEON ecological impacts of climate change
workshop report
Uwharrie NF Watershed Analysis
Riverwood Middle School soil erosion project
SGCP website re-design and publication search
Products
Special Issue of Environmental Management
(Mickler, Sun)
Pres paper at 3rd International Nitrogen
Conference (Boggs, McNulty)
STAR Grant report (Abt, Murray, McNulty, Bunch,
Moore Myers)
Sun pres paper at Interagency Conference on
Research and Wetlands
posters at SRS All-Scientists Meeting
AWRA pres paper (Sun, McNulty, Moore Myers)
Hanson et al. paper in Ecological Monographs
(modeling comparison)
Gavazzi pres paper at ESA
Sun paper at Advances in Hydro Science and
Engineering
Sun book review in JAWRA
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2005
Southern Global Change Program Research Agenda
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Research Components Carbon Sequestration
Forest Productivity Hydrology Nitrogen
Deposition Soils Wildland Fire
Other Linkages Integration Within/Between
Components Tech Transfer
WeyCo litter and branchfall collection
pilot FACE at Duke Forest (Oren)
WeyCo belowground sampling with root ingrowth
ongoing
WeyCo tower data collection
WeyCo LAI collection
WeyCo aboveground biomass collection
workshop in Beijing
SGCP TAV Nov 8 - 10
USCCC monitoring
SGCP Retreat May 2 - 5
Ozone impacts on mature forests (McLaughlin)
PnET DNDC integration (Li)
WSSI refinement (return flow and groundwater)
WSSI refinement (continued) and
eastwide/continental expansion
historic LULC? impacts on Eno River hydrology
(UNC)
Mt. Ascutney trip plot fertilization, sampling,
and clean-up
national scale critical load modeling
critical loads workshop
BMP water quality site location,
characterization, and Sigma sampling
(DENR/Crumbley)
Croatan NF P2 P3 biomass sampling
Uwharrie NF P2 P3 biomass sampling
DDW P2 and P3 analysis, modeling, and write-up
PFire
Croatan fire impacts on water quality
Uwharrie water quality monitoring and analysis
PnET-II
DDW


FARM
smoke emissions work with CEP
PEcon model refinement and application______
__________________________________________________
_______________________________________
Uwharrie Forest Plan Revision - Other NFs?
Riverwood Middle School soil erosion project
SGCP website publications and detailed project
info
Products
J of Hydrology paper (Sun, McNulty, et al.)
International Symposium on Ecosystem Carbon
Balance and Cycling pres paper (McNulty)
WRRI pres papers (Lu, McNulty, Sun)
Canadian J of Forest Research paper (Boggs,
Gavazzi, McNulty, Moore Myers)
Wildland Fire pres (Boggs)
NAFC pres (McNulty)
SWS pres papers (Lu, Sun)
SGSF GIS Task Force membership (Moore Myers)
EastFIRE extended abstracts paper (Gavazzi,
Bunch, McNulty, Moore Myers, Sun)
AWRA pres (Sun)
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Products
Southern Global Change Program Research Agenda

Databases VEMAP I Historic Climate Breeding Bird Survey AVHRR 1990 US Census Demographics (County Level) Models Regional version of PnET-II Analyses Nitrogen Deposition Impacts on Southern Appalachian Hardwoods Conference Presentations and Publications NIGEC Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore IRTCES in Beijing Steve McNulty and Ge Sun International Erosion Control Association Ge Sun Databases VEMAP II Historic Climate Hadley Centre Climate Change Scenario (HadCM2) FIA Eastwide NRI (HUC-County) US Census Demographics (Sub-County Level) Demographic Projections (1967 - 2000, County Level) Economic USGS Butterfly - Moth Models GATES Simple Water Balance (conceptual) Linkage between PnET-II and SRTS models Linkage between PnET-II and DISTRIB/SHIFT Analyses Wetland Hydrology Synthesis Conference Presentations and Publications ESA John Bartlett, Johnny Boggs, Todd Earnhardt, Susan Fox, Jennifer Moore, Ge Sun ASAE Annual Meeting Ge Sun and Steve McNulty SRS All-Scientists Meeting John Bartlett, Johnny Boggs, Susan Fox, Michael Gavazzi, Steve McNulty, Bob Mickler, Jennifer Moore, Ge Sun Climate and Water Resources Ge Sun Southern Pine Forests Workshop Ge Sun Global Warming International Conference Steve McNulty Southern Forestry and GIS Meeting Jennifer Moore Chapter in Morains GIS book John Bartlett Databases Demographics of NC Piedmont (1800 - 2000) Foliar Nitrogen of Southern Hardwood Species Nitrogen Deposition/Concentration (Southern US) Canadian Climate Center (CGC1) Change Scenario NRI Plots Database Catalog Listing of spatial temporal, attributes, applications Models NPP Suite - PnET-II - FIA - MRLC Regional simple water balance Watershed hydrology (NC coastal areas) N Mineralization Suite - PnET-CN - CONUS-Soil - FIA/FIM Population Growth in Desert Areas Insect (Butterflies Moths) Diversity - Forest Fragmentation Economic Growth and Nitrogen Deposition Environmental Nexus Fact Sheets - Database catalog - Database integration - Global change research tools - Forest productivity modeling - Watershed modeling Conference Presentations and Publications ASPRS Johnny Boggs, Todd Earnhardt, Bob Mickler, Ge Sun ESA Michael Gavazzi IALE John Bartlett / Jennifer Moore ERIM Todd Earnhardt, Bob Mickler, Jennifer Moore Population and Environment paper John Bartlett Soil Science paper Ge Sun Springer Verlag 139 Bob Mickler Databases VEMAP I Historic Climate Breeding Bird Survey AVHRR 1990 US Census Demographics (County Level) Models Regional version of PnET-II Analyses Nitrogen Deposition Impacts on Southern Appalachian Hardwoods Conference Presentations and Publications Annual Nitrogen Conference Johnny Boggs SAF Annual Meeting Steve McNulty BioScience paper 1 Steve McNulty et al. BioScience paper 2 Steve McNulty et al. BioScience paper 3 Steve McNulty and John Aber Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Southeastern United States Steve McNulty et al. Climate Change Impacts on the United States Steve McNulty et al. Forest Ecology and Management paper Ge Sun, Steve McNulty et al. Environmental Pollution paper Bob Mickler, Todd Earnhardt, and Jennifer Moore ASAE Meeting Ge Sun and Zhiming Niu Beijing Forestry University paper Ge Sun, Steve McNulty, and Zhiming Niu Southern Forest Science Conference Bob Mickler, Ge Sun Databases Models Regional ET for forested watersheds across southern US Analyses Conference Presentations and Publications AWRA Jianbiao Lu ESA John Bartlett, Johnny Boggs, Michael Gavazzi Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference Ge Sun ISCO Steve McNulty, Bob Mickler, Jennifer Moore, Ge Sun Southern Forest Resource Assessment Jennifer Moore, John Bartlett, Johnny Boggs, Michael Gavazzi, Linda Heath, Steve McNulty J of Hydrology Ge Sun, Steve McNulty et al. Environmental Pollution paper Steve McNulty Global Biogeochemical Cycles paper Ge Sun et al. J of Air Waste Mgmt paper Bob Mickler, Todd Earnhardt, and Jennifer Moore J of Soil and Water Conservation Zhiming Niu, Ge Sun, Steve McNulty MS Thesis Jianbiao Lu SRS Directors Award for Stewardship SGCP Databases Models Analyses Conference Presentations and Publications ASAE Ge Sun ESA Bob Mickler Conference on Carbon Sequestration Steve McNulty, Bob Mickler, Shi Qi, Sara Strickland Society of Wetland Scientists Ge Sun Southern Forest Sustainability Workshop Jennifer Moore Myers Environmental Mgmt paper Ge Sun et al. J of Sustainable Agriculture Johnny Boggs et al. Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds proceedings Ge Sun et al. Chapter in Karnosky book Bob Mickler, Steve McNulty et al.
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
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Products
Southern Global Change Program Research Agenda

Models PEcon and FARM Analyses Conference Presentations and Publications ASAE/CSAE Ge Sun ESA Michael Gavazzi, Steve McNulty SRS All-Scientists Meeting Johnny Boggs, Michael Gavazzi, Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore Myers, Ge Sun Watershed Assessment and Restoration Conference Ge Sun, Steve McNulty Annual Nitrogen Conference Johnny Boggs, Steve McNulty, Ge Sun National Fire Plan Meeting Michael Gavazzi EPA Fire Summit Corey Bunch, Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore Myers Air Pollution Workshop Steve McNulty SGSF GIS Task Force Meeting Jennifer Moore Myers Carbon Conference pubs in Environmental Mgmt (numerous) Chapter in SAF book Ge Sun J of AWRA paper Ge Sun, Steve McNulty, Jianbiao Lu et al. AWRA Specialty Conference proceedings Steve McNulty, Ge Sun, Jennifer Moore Myers, Erika Cohen International Conference on Hydro-Science and Engineering proceedings Ge Sun, Steve McNulty, Erika Cohen, Jennifer Moore Myers Uwharrie Watershed Assessment Johnny Boggs, Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore Myers, Ge Sun SRS GTR Ge Sun et al. SAUBR Proceedings Jennifer Moore Myers Environmental Mgmt paper Bob Mickler et al. Databases FIAdb upgraded to v1.7 Analyses Conference Presentations and Publications Institute of NC Water Resources Conference Erika Cohen, Ge Sun EastFIRE Michael Gavazzi, Jennifer Moore Myers ASAE Ge Sun International Wetlands Conference Ge Sun DHI Users Conference Jianbiao Lu FIA Users Conference Jennifer Moore Myers WRRI Meeting Jianbiao Lu, Ge Sun AWRA Jianbiao Lu, Steve McNulty FS/EPA Critical Loads Meeting Steve McNulty SGCP Critical Loads Workshop Steve McNulty, Johnny Boggs, Erika Cohen, Jennifer Moore Myers, Sara Strickland, Ge Sun USCCC Meeting Steve McNulty, Ge Sun Poyang Lake Conference Steve McNulty, Ge Sun AAEIC Meeting Ge Sun EPA STAR Report Steve McNulty, Corey Bunch, Jennifer Moore Myers et al. Canadian J of Forest Research paper Johnny Boggs, Michael Gavazzi, Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore Myers J of AWRA paper Jianbiao Lu, Ge Sun, Steve McNulty et al. J of Hydrology paper Ge Sun, Steve McNulty et al. Forest Ecology and Mgmt paper (in press) Steve McNulty, Johnny Boggs et al. International Symposium on Ecosystem Carbon Balance and Cycling proceedings Steve McNulty
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
DRAFT
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SGCP Current Research Areas
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Research Scales
Biome Competition
Region
Landscape
Forest Competition
Biome Selection
Landscape Dynamics
Forest Selection
Species Competition
ha
Tree
Species Selection
Insect
1/10 ha
Disease
Week Month Year
Decade Century
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Regional Scale Integrated Ecosystem Modeling
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Forest Growth Models
Climate Data
Soils Data
Vegetation Data
Forest Growth
Forest Distribution
Forest Fire
Forest Hydrology
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Flow Chart of PEcon linked forest growth,
biodiversity, and economics model
Climate
Spatial
FIA
Update Equilibrium
Update Inventory
?Volume1
PnET-CN
SRTS
?Volume2
Allocate Harvest
Calculate Growth
?Volume3
Calculate Acres Harvested
Update Acres
FIA Plot
Inventory and Harvest
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Forest Productivity Across The Eastern US
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Forest Economic Impacts
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Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 2040 No Climate
Change Baseline
gt 25 DECLINE 5-25 DECLINE lt5
CHANGE 5-25 INCREASE
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Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley
Climate Change
5-25 DECLINE lt5 CHANGE 5-25
INCREASE
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Soil Erosion
Issue To assess current and potential future
soil erosion and stream sediment across the
Uwharrie National Forest.
Objective Locate and reduce sources of current
and future soil erosion with a special
emphasis sediment entering streams.
Method Current and future soil erosion was
calculated using soil erosion models, UNF data
and climate projections in a GIS.
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Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Regional Water Stress Across the Southern US
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Water Withdrawal
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Model Rationale
Anthro
Land use change
Climate
Ground water
Demand
Supply
34
Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)
WaSSI Total water supply from all
sectors Total water demand from all
sectors
35
Impact of the Loss of Ground Water on WaSSI
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Impact of a 20 reduction in Forest Cover
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Impact of a 20 decrease in irrigation on WaSSI
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Impact of a 50 Increase in Population on WaSSI
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Can Examine Monthly and Seasonal Patterns of
Water Stress
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Critical Acid Load Research
A critical load can be defined as  a quantitative
estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants
below which significant harmful effects on
specified sensitive elements of the environment
do not occur according to present knowledge.
When pollutant loads exceed the critical load it
is considered that there is risk of harmful
effects. The excess over the critical load has
been termed the exceedance. A larger exceedence
is often considered to pose a greater risk of
damage. UK Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology
47
Simple Mass Balance Equationfor Forest Soils
CL(SN) BCdep Cldep BCw BCu Ni Nu
Nde ANCle(crit)?
BCdep Base Cation Deposition Cldep Chloride
Deposition BCw Base Cation Weathering BCu
Base Cation Uptake
Ni Nitrogen Immobilization Nu Nitrogen
Uptake Nde Nitrogen Denitrification ANCe(crit)
Acid Neutralizing Capacity
48

• BC Ca K Mg Na

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BC Ca K Mg Na
51
Estimated Forest Soil Critical Acid Load
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Estimated Areas of Forest Soil in Exceedence of
the Critical Acid Load
53
Modeling Critical Loads of NS of Forest Soils at
Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiments Site (GLEES)
Robert Musselman, John Korfmacher

• RMRS-4354- Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiments
  Site

54
Project Goal

• Run critical loads and exceedance empirical
  model, Simple Mass Balance Equation, with data
  collected at Glacier Lake Ecosystem Experimental
  Site (GLEES)
• Compare GLEES output with model results from
  national scale critical loads and exceedance maps

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Why our results are wrong

• Rethinking Ecosystem Threats
• (an unabashed commercial on why this centers
  research should continue)

With a special guest quote from former Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
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Five Year Averaged Climate (1951 2001), Mt.
Mitchell, NC, USA
60
Background
Western NC experienced a moderate three year
drought from 1999-2002. In 2001, red spruce
(Picea rubens) trees began to die in large
numbers in and around Mt. Mitchell NC, USA. The
initial evidence suggested that the
affected trees were killed by the southern pine
beetle. This insect species is not normally
successful at colonizing these tree species.
Subsequent investigations revealed an interesting
pattern where trees died or survived the SPB
attack.
61
Picea rubens (red spruce) mortality near
Asheville, NC
62
Critical Acid Load In Forest Soil in Western
North Carolina, USA
63
Sampling damaged Southern Appalachian red spruce
stand
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Drought Stress
Drought, Temperature, Insect, N deposition
Stresses
65
Residual Tree Foliar Chemistry
0.12
1.4
Dead Plots
Live Plots
1.3
0.1
Foliar MgN Ratio
Foliar N Concentration ()
1.2
0.08
1.1
0.06
1.0
0.04
Foliar N
Foliar MgN
66
Hypothesis for mortality

• The area in and around Asheville received
  elevated
• nitrogen deposition, but these levels are
  below that
• considered critical acid load

• The ratio between above ground growth (i.e.,
  stem
• wood, branches and foliage) and below ground
• growth (i.e. coarse and fine roots) increased

• The increased level of nitrogen inputs likely
  had a
• fertilization impact

67
Hypothesis for mortality (cont.)

• The larger more vigorously growing trees had a
  higher AG/BG ratio than the small trees

• The drought conditions reduced available water,
  
• carbohydrate reserves for the production of
  
• secondary carbon compounds such as
  oleoresin.

• The lack of oleoresin (especially in large trees)
  allowed for the colonization and the large scale
  forest mortality witnessed during that time.

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Threat Interactions
Elevated nitrogen deposition Causing altered tree
physiology
Forest Mortality
Climate Change Reducing carbohydrate reserves
Insects Causing tree mortality through
colonization and tree girdling by larval feeding
69
and Now Back to Our Program

• Field Research

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Site summary

• Coastal plain ecosystems comprise only about 5
  of total U.S. land area, but the soil carbon
  density in these ecosystems is about 10-fold
  higher than in upland ecosystems and they may
  therefore play a disportionately large role in
  ecosystem-climate feedbacks. The role of these
  ecosystems in continental carbon exchange is
  largely unclear because they have been
  underrepresented in flux monitoring networks. We
  monitored ecosystem carbon fluxes and pools for
  three years in two lower coastal plain loblolly
  pine plantations (5 and 19 years of age in 2009).
  The contribution of soil to ecosystem respiration
  decreased from over 90 immediately following a
  harvest to about 55-60 by age 17. The
  replenishment of soil C through litterfall in the
  17-yr old stand equaled heterotrophic respiration
  (Rh) in 2006, but was 7 and 30 lower than Rh in
  2007 and 2005, highlighting the sensitivity of
  soil carbon stocks to interannual climate
  variability. Throughout three years, the net
  loss of soil C was 233 g m-2.

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Ecosystem provinces of US (Bailey et al., 1994),
and Soil carbon stocks in SE-US (Johnson Kern
(2003).
72
Year 0
73
Year 2
74
Year 4
75
NEE by age latitude
SK data from Amiro et al., 2001, 2006 Barr et
al., 2004 Howard et al., 2004 Zhao et al.
2004 Black et al., 2005 Dunn et al., 2007. NC,
Duke data from Stoy et al., 2006 Oren et al.,
2006 NC, Plymouth data from Noormets et al.,
2009 WI data adapted from Noormets et al., 2006
2007
76
Postharvest change in NEE SR
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2005
2007
2006
unpublished
77
Independent assessments of whole stand water use
Evapotranspiration from eddy flux tower compares
well with stand soil water depletion
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Soil moisture and water use partitioning between
soil layers
During winter time, 60-65 of whole stand water
use comes from the upper soil layers (0-60 cm).
During summer time, a switch occurs where more
than 50 of whole stand water use comes from the
lower soil layers (60-100cm).
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Hydraulic redistribution of soil water from deep
to shallow roots
During the late summer, hydraulic redistribution
contributed for more than 1 mm/day and up to 50
of soil water depletion. Over the years,
hydraulic redistribution contributed to 8 of
whole year water use.
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Direct effects of Hydraulic redistribution on
soil moisture and stand carbon fluxes
Hydraulic redistribution maintained higher soil
water content and therefore increased GEP and
NPP by 11-12
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Comparison between whole stand water loss
(evapotranspiration) and tree water loss
(transpiration)
From may to September, tree water loss represents
only 65 of all stand water loss due to the
understory effect. In winter, tree and whole
stand water loss are within 8 .
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Research Funded by the National Fire Plan
Steve McNulty, Michael Gavazzi, Jennifer Moore
Myers, David Chojnacky

• Goals
• Improve wildfire risk assessment in the
  wildland/urban interface
• Develop regional estimates of live forest
  biomass, standing and down dead wood biomass to
  identify areas at a high risk of wildfire
• Assess fuel model estimates of down dead wood

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Assessing Wildfire Risk in the Wildland/Urban
Interface
Use GIS to Map LU/LC and infrastructure to
identify high risk areas Fold in fuel and fire
occurrence database to identify high risk areas
Tech transfer to Southern Group of State
Foresters and Fire Wise Communities/USA
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Forest Wildland-Urban Interface
RATE OF CHANGE
66 hectare scale
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RATE OF CHANGE
66 hectare scale
86
Assessing NFDRS Fuel Load Estimates
Results
NFDRS fuel models accurately estimated 1-hour
fuels on the sites studied. Fuel models generally
underestimated 10-, 100-, and 1000-hour
fuels. Duff is an important component of 100- and
1000-hour fuels in the coastal plain and does not
appear to be well represented in the NFDRS.
Croatan National Forest
Nearly 2 feet of duff burned away during wildfire
Uwharrie National Forest
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge
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Comparison of Field Data to the Standard Fuel
Models

• Field Data Assigned to Standardize Fuel Models on
  ARNWR site
• Andersons Fuel Models
• 4 Chaparral (6 foot)
• 7 Southern Rough
• National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Fuel
  Models
• O High Pocosin
• D Southern Rough
• Wendel Fuel Model B-20 High Brush
• Forest Fuels on Organic and Associated Soils in
  the Coastal Plain of North Carolina

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Quantifying Changes in Dead Fuel Loads Following
Prescribed Fire

• Results from on-going research

Prescribed fire is an effective management tool
for reducing fine fuel loads and live understory
biomass. There may be a negative feedback in some
ecosystems whereby live shrubs are killed by
fire, resulting in increased dead shrub fuel
loads. Fire in the coastal plain can result in a
significant increase in fuel loads and the loss
of carbon rich duff.
UNF 6 months after prescribed burn
CNF 6 months after prescribed burn
CNF - 1 day after prescribed burn
CNF 1 day after prescribed burn
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(Exciting) Future Research Areas
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Threats to Ecosystem Services
91

• Ecosystem Services are a rapidly developing area
  of ecological study

• Water quality and quantity are two important
  types of
• ecosystem service.

• Forest carbon sequestration is also an
  important ecosystem service due to global
  warming and related to ecosystem water use

• Both Water use and carbon sequestration are
  related to biodiversity

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Relationships Between Ecosystem Services
(Sun Model)
Water Availability
Carbon Sequestration
Biodiversity
(Constanza Model)
(Law Model)
93
A Convenient Ecological Relationship
Forest water use is related to forest productivity
Forest productivity is related to ecosystem
carbon sequestration
All the information needed to predict carbon
sequestration is available from the water supply
model (Sun Model)
So a modification of the water supply model
equation could be used to predict carbon
sequestration, and trade offs between water
supply and carbon gain
94
Switching to the US for an Example of Water
Availability and Carbon Sequestration
95
Water Availability
96
Since forest water use is related to carbon gain,
we can predict forest carbon sequestration
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Finally, we can predict Biodiversity because
As Ecosystem Water Use Increases, so does
Biodiversity
99
Relationships Between Ecosystem Services
(Sun Model)
Water Availability
Carbon Sequestration
Biodiversity
(Constanza Model)
(Law Model)
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Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options Managing Under a Changing Climate
Incorporating climate change into the USFS
planning process is an important step that could
be taken now to help identify suitable management
adaptations as well as ecological, social, and
institutional opportunities and barriers to their
implementation. Synthesis and Assessment Product
4.4 (June 2008)
Objective The Template for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO)
is a tool intended to facilitate the integration
of climate change science into land management
planning. The overarching goal is to provide
land managers with the best available science
they need to effectively and efficiently sustain
forests and the services they provide under a
changing climate.
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• Literature Review Database Development
• Collaborative process between the SGCP and a
  steering committee composed of management and
  planning experts from the NFS Southern Region
  (R8).
• SGCP communicates literature review findings at
  regular intervals
• evaluate the relevance of the information to
  forest planning
• allow for structured guidance and peer review

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Project Deliverables
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Other Great Stuff (but no time to mention)
United States China Carbon Consortium
SGCP/NC Department of Natural Resources BMP
Project
World Wildlife Fund Climate Camp
International Hydrologic Symposium
COFLAC
Mount Ascutney
International Programs Support