Mario Holzner

1
Medium-Term Economic Outlook and Challenges for
the RegionThe countries of Southeast Europe

• Mario Holzner

2
Outlook for the SEE countriesGDP, real change in
against previous year
Source wiiw (June 2008), Eurostat forecasts
wiiw, European Commission (Spring) for EU-15.
3
GDP growth rates, 2005-2010year-on-year, growth
in
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.
4
Industry growth rates, 2005-2010year-on-year,
growth in
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.
5
GDP and Industry growth rates, 2005-2010year-on-y
ear, growth in
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.
6
Employment, 2000-2007LFS - employed persons, th,
avg., annual change in
Remark AL, BA registration data.
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.
7
Unemployment, 2000-2007LFS - unemployed persons,
th, avg., annual change in
Remark AL, BA registration data.
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.
8
Employment and Unemployment, 2000-2007LFS
persons, th, avg. , annual change in
Remark AL, BA registration data.
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.
9
Drivers of GDP growth, 2000-2010contributions of
main components to GDP growth, in
Note Net exports including change in stocks and
statistical discrepancies. Source wiiw Annual
Database incorporating national statistics,
forecasts wiiw.
10
Real appreciation, 2004-2008EUR per NCU,
PPI-deflated, in against January 2004
Increasing line indicates appreciation.
Source wiiw Monthly Database.
11
Serbia Exchange rates, consumer prices and wages
2004-2007, year-on-year growth in
Increasing line indicates appreciation.
Source wiiw Monthly Database.
12
SEE EU accession forecast
13
Medium-Term Economic Outlook for the SEE
countries - conclusion

• Slight dip 2008, growth increase 2009 2010
• Growth driver domestic demand (remittances
  credit boom)
• Reindustrialization employment/export increase
• Stable competitive performance (except TR RS)
• Weak net export position
• Minor impact of global growth slowdown, price
  hikes
• Serbias unbalanced growth path regional risk
• EU accession prospects improving (except TR)

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15
Financial vulnerability and bubblesin NMS, SEE
main CIS

• Vladimir Gligorov, Olga Pindyuk, Mario Holzner

16
Financial vulnerability


Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics. BIS/IMF/OECD/WB
http//www.jedh.org
17
Financial bubbles
Source IFS(IMF). Bloomberg, national stock
exchanges.
18
Latvia Credits, house prices and assets growth
Index 2004 q4 100
Source Bank of Latvia Latio, Bloomberg.
19
Latvia Credits, house prices and assets growth
percentage change to previous quarter, 4 period
moving average
Source Bank of Latvia Latio, Bloomberg.
20
Ukraine Credits, house prices and assets growth
Index 2004 q4 100
Source National Bank of Ukraine, Domik,
Bloomberg.
21
Ukraine Credits, house prices and assets growth
percentage change to previous quarter, 4 period
moving average
Source National Bank of Ukraine, Domik,
Bloomberg.
22
www.balkan-observatory.net

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