Macroeconomic

1
(No Transcript)
2
Macroeconomic Environment
3
US Real GDP
4
World Real GDP
5
US Crude Oil Spot Price
6
Change in Value of US
7
US Crop Futures
8
World Stocks-to-Use
9
International Market Cotton Trade
10
China Cotton Balance Sheet
11
India Cotton Balance Sheet
12
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7





13
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9




14
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4



15
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5


16
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9

17
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9

18
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9

19
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9

20
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5 W. Africa 3.0 3.7
All Others 10.3 9.9

21
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5 W. Africa 3.0 3.7
All Others 10.3 9.9 All Others 6.7 6.5

22
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5 W. Africa 3.0 3.7
All Others 10.3 9.9 All Others 6.7 6.5
US 15.2 14.7
23
US Cotton Demand
24
US Cotton Retail Market
25
US Cotton Retail Market
26
US Cotton Mill Use (Crop Year)
27
US Cotton Supply
28
2008 US Planting Intentions
2007 Actual 2008 Intentions Percent Change
Southeast 2,255 1,996 -11.5
Mid-South 2,750 2,049 -25.5
Southwest 5,122 5,021 -2.0
West 411 252 -38.7
Total Upland 10,538 9,318 -11.6
ELS 292 231 -21.1
All Cotton 10,830 9,549 -11.8
29
US Cotton Production
30
Abandonment Yield Variability
31
US Cottonseed Production
32
Stocks Prices
33
US Cotton Production Use
34
US Cotton Ending Stocks
35
World Cotton Production Use
36
World Cotton Stocks
37
Nearby NY and A (FE) Index
A (FE)
Nearby NY
38
Nearby NY and A (FE) Index
Implied A
A (FE)
Current futures contracts
Nearby NY
39
Cotton Stocks-to-Use
40
Cotton Stocks-to-Use
A Index /lb
Stocks/Use
41
Growth in World Mill Use
42
Fiber and Yarn Prices
43
Copies of the Economic Outlook Available at the
Close of this Session