Developments

1
Developments in Critical Loads and Dynamic
Modelling Maximilian Posch Coordination Center
for Effects (CCE) ICP Modelling Mapping (ICP
MM) Working Group on Effects (WGE) MNP,
Bilthoven, The Netherlands
2

• Update of CL and DM data in spring 2005
• 2 calls for data
• CLs of heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg)
• - different criteria (ecosystem/health)
• - 18 NFCs responded
• - EMEP/MSC-E provided depositions/conc.
• (emission uncertainties!)
• - Health-gtagriculture-gtfertiliser inputs
  important
• - Pb more exceeded than Cd
• - use in review/revision of HM Protocol as yet
• undecided
• - CCE Report distributed available on www

3
Update of CL and DM data in spring 2005 (2) 2.
CLs of acidity nutrient N and DynMod of
acidity - 14/13 provided update (of 24 NFCs) -
EMEP/MSC-W provided deposition data (also BC
deposition!) - Overall, not many changes in CLs -
DynMod clearly adds to complexity - CCE Report
being sent out already available on www
4
Coverage
Grid CL data from NFCs Green Also DynMod
Red Also Target Loads
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Exceedance of acidity CLs (1)
Exceedance EU25 17.9 11.0 7.0 4.1
3.7 3.4 1.8
Europe 8.6 6.1 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.9
0.9
6
Exceedance of acidity CLs (2)
Exceedance EU25 17.9 11.0 7.0 4.1
3.7 3.4 1.8
Europe 8.6 6.1 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.9
0.9
7
Exceedance of eutrophication CLs (1)
Exceedance EU25 65.2 60.4 55.9 45.7
40.9 38.6 24.6
Europe 28.5 28.0 26.9 23.6 22.3 21.6
9.6
8
Exceedance of eutrophication CLs (2)
Exceedance EU25 65.2 60.4 55.9 45.7
40.9 38.6 24.6
Europe 28.5 28.0 26.9 23.6 22.3 21.6
9.6
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The Use of CLs in Integrated Assessment (IA) i.e.
how CL data are used by CIAM/TFIAM

• Use to date (Gothenburg Protocol, NEC Directive)
• Within every 150x150 EMEP grid cell so-called
  (protection
• and) exceedance isolines were calculated by the
  CCE
• and provided to CIAM/TFIAM.
• This is an approximation and results in a large
  amount of data.
• Also, the implementation in optimization
  algorithms is non-trivial.
• New challenges
• - 50x50 grid number of grids 500 ? 4,000
• ecosystem-specific depositions (gt 3 per grid
  cell)
• ? too many data and equations for optimisation

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therefore new methodology Linearised
relationship between AAE and emissions
AAEk is the AAE in receptor k for the new (or to
be determined) emissions Ep,j of pollutant p in
emitter area j AAE0,k is the AAE for the
reference emissions E0,p,j Np is the number of
emitter regions for pollutant p, P is the number
of pollutants (P3), f is a unit conversion
factor, K is the number of receptor
areas. ap,k,j are the coefficients impact
factors -- determining the linear model,
characterising the strength of the
relationship between emissions of pollutant p in
country j and AAE in region k.

Similar methodology used in Life Cycle Impact
Assessment
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Graphical representation of impact coefficients
for eutrophication
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Graphical representation of impact coefficients
for acidity
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How good is the linear approximation?
(1) Country-to-country relationships (acidity
nutrient N) 2 examples BE ? NL and DE ? SE
acidity
nutrient N
acidity
nutrient N
SO2 red NO2 green NH3 blue
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How good is the linear approximation? (2) (a)
All countries ? GB (b) All countries to Europe
acidification red eutrophication green
15

• Ongoing Work
• Derive impact factors for Target Loads instead
  of
• CLs (exceedance ? non-attainment)
• Investigate how time information (RDT and DDT)
• can be used in IAM

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• More information
• CCE reports 2005
• - Heavy Metals Report
• - Status Report 2005
• CCE website www.mnp.nl/cce
• Thank you for your attention!