Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS12

1
Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri
LankaAS-12

• Senaka Basnayake
• Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS)
• Department of Meteorology
• Colombo
• Sri Lanka

2
Outline of the Presentation

• Meteorological data required
• Trend analysis performed
• Encountered anticipated problems of climate
  scenario development

3
Overall Objectives

• Project the climate change scenarios in the
  coconut and tea growing areas based on the Global
  Circulation Model results relevant to South Asia.

4
CLIMATE DATA
5
Required climate data
HISTORICAL DATA

• Temperature (1961-1990) -Minimum
• 
  -Maximum
• 
  -Mean
• Rainfall (1961-1990)

• NCEP Re-analysis (1961-1990)

• At time resolutions Daily
• Monthly

• At spatial resolutions
• Farm level
• National

6
Required climate data contd.
FUTURE DATA

• Global Circulation Model outputs 2020, 2050

• At time resolutions
• Daily
• Monthly

• At spatial resolutions
• Regional level

7
(No Transcript)
8
Map of Sri Lanka showing tea and coconut growing
area Tea Coconut
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
TREND ANALYSIS
14
(No Transcript)
15
TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS
16
TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
17
TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
18
TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
19
TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS
20
TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS contd.
21
(No Transcript)
22
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
23
Scenario Development
Baseline Climate
GCM Validation
Regenalisation
Regenalisation
Direct GCM Or interpolated
Dynamical Methods
24
Downscaling in Brief
25
Criteria for selection of Downscaling method

• Availability
• Suitability/Feasibility

Therefore SDSM has been selected
26
SDSM ( Statistical Downscaling Method)
This has an ability to develop climate scenarios
at a single-site of daily surface climate
variables under current and future climate
forcing.
27
Data input for SDSM

• Baseline Climatological data (1961-1990)
• NCEP Reanalysis data (1961-1990)
• Global Circulation Model (2020 and 2050)

28
Problems encountered

• Lack of computerized data (some data still in
  hard copies)
• Downloading of NCEP and GCM from other web sites
  was also not
• possible, Because it gives outputs for the
  whole globe but not for
• the area which we are interested.
• Downloading NCEP and GCM data has to be
  postponed for about
• two months due to the delay of establishment of
  Canadian web
• site on NCEP/GCM data to the area which covers
  Sri Lanka.
• These will be made available at
  http//www.cics.uvic.ca in near future

29
Problems anticipated
Since SDSM generates site specific scenarios,
spatial interpolations will have to be carried
out to get the spatial distribution over a
particular area or country GIS/Surfer will be
used to overcome this problem
30
Thank You