Land Use Portfolio Model In Action

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Land Use Portfolio ModelIn Action

• A Tool for Quantitative Policy Analysis

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Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM)

• Modeling, mapping, and risk communication
• Inspired by financial portfolio theory
• Implemented in a GIS-based decision support
  system (DSS)
• Allows users to compare cost effectiveness of
  different policy alternatives

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Land Use Portfolio Model

• Developed at USGS to conduct risk analysis of
  natural hazards and ecological vulnerability
• Combines socioeconomic and natural science
  methods and data for decision making
• Most recent projects in Memphis, TN, Vancouver,
  Canada, and South Florida

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Importance of Disaster Mitigation

• Because hazard mitigation choices are long term,
  losses that can be caused by a natural disaster
  should include the cost of building replacement
  and the market value of amenities for a location
• Lose clustered economic activity that buildings
  support
• E.g., French quarter of New Orleans
• LUPM can assess both structure value and total
  market value of land parcels by overlaying maps
  showing vulnerability, hazard, and risk with maps
  showing clustered economic activity

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Memphis Project

• Evaluated new commercial building code for
  Memphis region. USGS identified the region as
  hazardous due to earthquakes
• USGS/UPenn scientists performed risk analysis by
  overlaying GIS zoning map and property values
  with geologic map showing probability of
  liquefaction
• Analysis showed which building sites for proposed
  development were in danger of liquefaction risk

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Memphis Project

• This demonstration project led to an invitation
  by city officials to assess the cost
  effectiveness of the stringency of
  commercial-building code standards
• Building code applies to vacant commercial
  parcels with earthquake hazards shaking,
  liquefaction, etc.
• Mitigation costs are assumed to have a wide range
  and possibly could act as a barrier for further
  development in these areas
• City wants to develop a template that would allow
  them to perform cost-benefit analyses of the
  merits of earthquake mitigation

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Memphis Project

• Initial case study compared property value with
  the cost of structural mitigation
• Built analytical model with overlays from the
  city of Memphis and Shelby county with USGS
  earthquake shake maps to identify vulnerable
  areas
• Performed risk analysis with scenario 7.7
  earthquake
• Economic area characteristics included in model
  allows city officials to assess risk and return
  of mitigation of new buildings for individual
  land parcels

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South Florida Project

• LUPM will be applied to measure economic impact
  of alternative land-development strategies
  outside Urban Development Boundary and near
  protected areas in Miami-Dade County, FL
• Purpose is to evaluate the ecosystem impacts of
  protecting lands associated with the Everglades
  Restoration Area
• Model will incorporate economic activity of area
  to estimate the societal costs of ecological
  protection
• Evaluate land use choices and strategies to
  maximize ecosystem values

9
South Florida Project

• Working model still in development
• Goal is to develop ecosystem risk indicators to
  assess the regional ecological and socioeconomic
  impacts of land-use decisions