Oklahoma 8Hour Ozone Modeling Update:

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Oklahoma 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Update MM5
Meteorological Modeling
March 5, 2003
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Ozone Modeling for Oklahoma 8-hr Ozone Early
Action Compact (EAC) UpdateMM5 Meteorological
Modeling

• Ralph Morris
• ENVIRON International Corporation
• 101 Rowland Way
• Novato, CA 94945
• [phone]
• rmorris_at_environcorp.com
• Presented at
• Oklahoma EAC Modeling Protocol
• Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
• March 5, 2003
• 707 North Robinson, Room 101
• Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

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Oklahoma 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Protocol

• Preliminary Draft Modeling Protocol (12/02/02)
• Decisions on Modeling Protocol at December 19,
  2002 Technical Advisory Committee Meeting
• Use MM5 for Meteorological modeling
• Use CAMx for photochemical modeling
• Use EPS2x for emissions modeling
• Use August 15-25, 1999 episode
• May want to extend to September 1, 1999 depending
  on meteorological stagnation analysis
• Extend 4-km Oklahoma grid south to include Red
  River ozone monitoring sites
• Draft Modeling Protocol dated 12/31/02

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Schedule for Oklahoma8-Hour Ozone Modeling Study
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Episode Selection August 15-25, 1999

• 11 day period with six (6) and three (3) 8-hour
  exceedance days in Tulsa and Oklahoma City,
  respectively (8 and 6 days gt 80 ppb)
• Characterized mainly by southerly winds
• Slow to moderate winds, South to South-Southeast
• Moderate to high ozone transport
• August 25 northerly transport
• Of five meteorological classifications, includes
  days with top three occurring classes
  (303016 76)
• Missing stagnation and easterly transport days
• If extend to September 1, 1999 pick up what looks
  like easterly transport and stagnation days
• Add two initialization days to model 13 days,
  August 13-25, 1999

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Oklahoma Ozone Monitoring Network (1999-2001)
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36-Hour Back Trajectory from Tulsa (93.4 ppb) and
Oklahoma City (86.2 ppb) on 08/17/99
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36-hr Back Trajectories Aug 23, 1999 and August
25, 1999 (Both 98 ppb in Tulsa)
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August 28, 1999 (91 ppb in Tulsa) and August 30,
1999 (93 ppb Tulsa, 88 ppb OK City)
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Modeling Domain

• MM5 uses Lambert Conformal Projection (LCP) grid
  system so must use LCP
• Choose LCP grid definition to be consistent with
  Texas regional-scale modeling domain
• MM5 two-way grid nesting uses 31 ratio therefore
  use 36/12/4-km nested grids
• 4-km grid covering most of Oklahoma from Lawton
  east
• 12-km grid covering major upwind emissions
  regions
• 36-km grid covering lower Midwest and Gulf States

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MM5 (red) and CAMx (blue) 36/12/4-km Modeling
Domain (min 3 cells offset)
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CAMx 36/12/4-km Oklahoma Modeling Domain
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CAMx 12/4-km Oklahoma Modeling Domain
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Meteorological Modeling

• MM5 Prognostic Meteorological Model
• 36/12/4-km Two-Way Nesting
• Four Dimensional Data Assimilation
• EGAS Analysis Fields
• NOAA Upper-Air Profiler Data
• 28 Vertical Layers up top 50 mb (19-km)
• Evaluation of MM5 using METSTAT Program
• Standard NCAR FDDA observations data
• Oklahoma MESONET data (independent)

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Emissions Modeling

• EPS2x Emissions Model GLOBEIS Biogenic
• EPA NEI99 Emissions Database
• MOBILE6.2 new NONROAD Mobile Source Models
• Local Travel Demand Model (TDM) Data for Tulsa
  and Oklahoma City
• Major Point Sources Day-Specific CEM Data from
  Acid Rain Database
• Local Data as Available

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Photochemical Modeling

• CAMx Photochemical Grid Model
• 36/12/4-km Two-Way Nesting
• CB-IV Chemistry
• PPM Advection Solver
• Clean Boundary Conditions (BCs) on Outer
  36-km Grid Domain
• MM5CAMx to Process MM5 Data
• Evaluation Following EPA Guidance

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Oklahoma 8-Hour Ozone -- Key Dates

• 12/01/02 Preliminary Draft Modeling Protocol
  with Episode Selection DONE
• 12/31/02 EAC Signed DONE
• 12/31/02 Draft Modeling Protocol, Episode
  Selected DONE
• 03/03 -- MM5 Modeling Completed DONE
• 05/03 -- Emissions Inventory Ready
• 07/03 -- CAMx Model Evaluation
• 09/03 -- Future Year Modeling
• ????? -- SIP Submitted to EPA

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MM5 Meteorological Modeling

• August 13-25, 1999 modeling period
• Previous experience running MM5 over Oklahoma for
  Texas modeling evaluated several different PBL
  schemes
• Gayno-Seaman
• MRF
• Blackadar
• Pleim-Xiu (worked best, use for OK modeling)
• RRTM radiation parameterization
• Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization
• FDDA to EDAS analysis fields

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MM5 Meteorological Modeling

• MM5 processed by MM5CAMx to generate
• Layer Interface Height (m AGL)
• Exactly match lowest 15 layers of MM5
• Wind Fields (u,v) (m/s)
• Temperature Fields (K)
• Pressure Fields (mb)
• Vertical Diffusivity (m2/s) from MM5 PBL
  heights
• Water Vapor Fields (ppm)
• Cloud Cover (fractional)
• Rainfall Rate (in/hr)

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MM5 and CAMx Vertical Layer Structure
  Layer sigma pressure height thickness
CAMx Layers
28 0.0000
50.00 18874.41 1706.76 27 0.0250 73.75
17167.65 1362.47 26 0.0500 97.50
15805.17 2133.42 25 0.1000 145.00
13671.75 1664.35 24 0.1500 192.50
12007.40 1376.75 23 0.2000 240.00
10630.65 1180.35 22 0.2500 287.50
9450.30 1036.79 21 0.3000 335.00
8413.52 926.80 20 0.3500 382.50
7486.72 839.57 19 0.4000 430.00
6647.15 768.53 18 0.4500 477.50
5878.62 709.45 17 0.5000 525.00
5169.17 659.47 16 0.5500 572.50
4509.70 616.58 15 0.6000 620.00
3893.12 579.34 --15--- 14 0.6500
667.50 3313.78 546.67 --14--- 13
0.7000 715.00 2767.11 517.77
--13--- 12 0.7500 762.50 2249.35
491.99 --12--- 11 0.8000 810.00
1757.36 376.81 --11--- 10 0.8400
848.00 1380.55 273.60 --10--- 9
0.8700 876.50 1106.95 266.37
---9--- 8 0.9000 905.00 840.58
259.54 ---8--- 7 0.9300 933.50
581.04 169.41 ---7--- 6 0.9500
952.50 411.63 166.65 ---6--- 5
0.9700 971.50 244.98 82.31
---5--- 4 0.9800 981.00 162.67
65.38 ---4--- 3 0.9880 988.60
97.29 56.87 ---3--- 2 0.9950
995.25 40.43 20.23 ---2--- 1
0.9975 997.62 20.19 20.19
---1--- 0 1.0000 1000.00 0.00
Surface  
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MM5 Model Performance Evaluation

• NCAR observation database (used in generating the
  EDAS analysis fields for FDDA)
• MESONET Oklahoma Network (independent database
  not used in FDDA)
• Hourly and Daily MM5 performance statistics for
  surface meteorological variables
• Wind Speed (m/s)
• Wind Direction (deg)
• Temperature (K)
• Mixing Ratio (g/kg) water vapor, RH
• Upper-Air Meteorological Evaluation Oklahoma
  City twice-daily soundings

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NCAR FDDA Met Observation Sites
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MESONET Met Observations Sites
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MM5/RAMS Model Performance Evaluation
Historical Model Performance Statistics

• MM5/RAMS performance statistics summarized for
  over 40 MM5/RAMS applications
• Surface Wind Speed
• RMSE ranges from 0.8 to 3.2 m/s, average 2 m/s
• Surface Wind Direction
• Difference ranges from 0 to 120 deg, avg 25 deg
• Surface Temperature
• Bias ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 K, average -0.1 K
• Error ranges from 1.3 to 3.3 K, average 1.9 K
• Mixing Ratio (g/kg)
• Bias ranges from 2.0 to 3.6, average 0.0
• Error ranges from 0.4 to 12.8, average 1.9

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Hourly Surface Wind Speed Performance (NCAR
observations database)
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Hourly Surface Wind Speed Performance (MESONET
observations)
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Daily Surface Wind Speed Performance (NCAR
observations database)
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Daily Surface Wind Speed Performance (MESONET
observations)
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Hourly Surface Wind Direction Performance (NCAR
observations database)
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Hourly Surface Wind Direction Performance
(MESONET observations)
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Daily Surface Wind Direction Performance (NCAR
observations database)
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Daily Surface Wind Direction Performance (MESONET
observations)
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Hourly Temperature Performance(NCAR Observations
Database)
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Hourly Temperature Performance(MESONET
Observations)
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Mixing Ratio (RH) Performance(NCAR observations
database)
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Mixing Ratio (RH) Performance(MESONET
observations)
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Summary MM5 Model Performance for Surface
Meteorological Variables
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MM5 Performance at Oklahoma CityUpper-Air
Rawinsonde Site 0600 LST 08/17/99
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
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MM5 Performance at Oklahoma CityUpper-Air
Rawinsonde Site 0600 LST 08/17/99
Temperature
Mixing Ratio
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MM5 Performance at Oklahoma CityUpper-Air
Rawinsonde Site 1800 LST 08/17/99
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
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MM5 Performance at Oklahoma CityUpper-Air
Rawinsonde Site 1800 LST 08/17/99
Temperature
Mixing Ratio
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MM5 PBL Depths _at_ 1000 LST August 17, 1999
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MM5 PBL Depths _at_ 1500 LST August 17, 1999
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MM5 Winds/Temperatures/Pressure _at_ 1000 LST
August 17, 1999
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MM5 Winds/Temperatures/Pressure _at_ 1500 LST
August 17, 1999
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Conclusions on MM5 Modeling of the Oklahoma
August 13-25, 1999 Ozone Episode

• MM5 model performance for surface and aloft
  winds, temperature, and moisture is quite good,
  as good or better than typically obtained by MM5
  and RAMS for ozone modeling in the past
• Some concern regarding MM5 PBL heights
• Next test is to run MM5 data as input to CAMx
  when initial emissions are ready (April-May 2003)
  and evaluate CAMx ozone estimates against
  observations
• Data was obtained, but not processed, for
  extending the MM5 simulation to September 1, 1999

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Next Steps in Oklahoma 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Study

• Several decisions to be made today
• MM5 simulation of the August 13-25, 1999 period
  acceptable?
• Model performance better than typical
• Next tests with photochemical grid model and
  ozone model performance
• ? Recommend accepting MM5 simulation, may revisit
  when doing ozone model performance evaluation if
  technically justified
• CAMx vertical layer structure
• ? Recommend 15 layers exactly matching MM5 layer
  interface heights up to 3,900-m AGL.

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Next Steps in Oklahoma 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Study

• Several decisions to be made today
• What temperatures to use in emissions modeling
  for biogenics and mobile sources
• Interpolated surface observations versus MM5
  estimates
• In earlier MM5 modeling MM5 underestimated the
  variations in high/low temperatures so observed
  values were used
• Latest MM5 modeling using Pleim-Xiu linked PBL
  and land surface module estimates temperatures
  better
• ? Recommend using MM5 surface (10-m) temperatures
• Extending episode from August 26 to September 1,
  1999
• Pick up stagnation and easterly transport days
• Wait for ODEQ stagnation classification
• More resources will be needed
• ? Recommend MM5 modeling now if resources
  available

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Next Steps in Oklahoma 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Study

• Efforts turn towards emissions modeling
• Resolving issues with point source stack
  parameters
• MOBILE6.2
• New NONROAD model
• Area
• GLOBEIS/BEIS3 biogenics
• Return to EAC Home Page