1. dia

1
Migration situation between Hungary and Ukraine
Áron Kincses Hungarian Central Statistical
Office
Dr. Dávid Karácsonyi Geographical Research
Institute of Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Migration Challenges to the Visegrad Countries
from Eastern Europe Budapest, 19 October, 2009
2
Historical overview of the Hungarian
international migration statistics

• During the years of isolation migration
  statistics did not exist at all. The situation
  changed fundamentally at the end of the 1980s
  when the political system changed. Hungary became
  a transit country to the west as well as a final
  destination for immigrants.
• The need for a comprehensive and consolidated
  information system on migration was expressed at
  different levels of political and economic
  decision-making, public administration and civil
  society at the beginning of the 1990s.
• The HCSO started to compile the international
  migration statistics with using the
  administrative data bases containing related
  information.
• The first data was published in 1993.

3
Data sources of migration

• The data base on migration dataset of Hungarian
  Central Statistical Office (HCSO), Office of
  Immigration and Nationality (Ministry of
  Interior) and Hungarian Tax and Financial Control
  Administration was used.
• Foreigners meant a foreign citizen having a
  residence permit, an immigration permit or a
  settlement permit who stayed in Hungary on 1
  January of the given year.
• The migration processes have been examined by
  destination, place of origin, age-groups,
  educational attainments and share of taxpayer in
  this study. The studied spatial distribution
  level is NUTS3. We shall give more spatial
  distribution details where it is relevant. We
  could isolate three educational levels a lower
  (ISCED 1-2), a middle (ISCED 3-4), and a higher
  (ISCED 5-7).

4
Migration in the World
Stock of foreign and foreign-born population,
2006
5
Change inflows of migrants by county of origin,
1995-2005 and 2006 (as of of total inflows)
Migration in the World
The share of total for top 10 country
6
Overview of the Hungarian international migration

• International migration is of close concern to
  Hungary, where it has also had social,
  demographic and economic impacts.
• The Hungarian pattern of age distribution, the
  activity rate, the employment rate, the number of
  tax-payers and the population number have been
  changed beneficially by migrants.

7
Hungarian population by citizens and age-groups,
1 January 2008
8
Tax-payer comparative table by county and
citizens, 2007
9
Foreign citizens in Hungary

• Since the beginning of the 1990s, there has been
  a positive balance in international migration in
  Hungary. Of the 174 697 foreign people resident
  in Hungary on 1st January 2008 (1,7 of total
  population), 40 of them are Romanian, 10 of
  them are Ukrainian respectively Serbian citizens.
  Their share has increased, and their spatial
  concentration has decreased a bit in Hungary. So
  there are about 17 000 Ukranian people residents
  in Hungary, and I have to make note of it, that
  since 1993, 10 299 Ukranian people have similarly
  become Hungarian citizens (97 of them
  Hungarian-speaking).
• The one of the most considerable group of foreign
  population is the Ukrainain citizens in Hungary.
  Thats why important to know what kind of
  features and spatial impacts characterize the
  international migration between these two
  neighbouring countries. We are going to examine
  the migration system from Ukraine to Hungary.

10
Foreign citizens residing in Hungary by country
of citizenship
11
Ukrainian citizens in Hungary

• As we can see, the effects of neighbouring
  countries are powerful and have gradually
  increased. The Ukranian Hungarian migration
  relationships are traditionally strong. The most
  affected Hungarian settlements are Budapest (6243
  person), Nyíregyháza (1010), Debrecen (579),
  Kisvárda (279) and Miskolc (210) and such
  counties are Budapest (6243), Szabolcs-Szatmár-Ber
  eg (4179), Pest (2139) and Hajdú-Bihar (823),
  where more than 77 of migrants live.

12
Ukrainian migrants in Hungary by destination, 1
January 2001
13
Ukrainian migrants in Hungary by destination, 1
January 2008
14
How can we explain the Hungarian spatial
contribution of Ukrainian citizens?

• There reason people move are no big mystery
  they do it today, as they did two centuries ago
  to improve their lives. written by Jeffrey G.
  Williamson (2005).
• In my opinion besides the regional difference of
  earnings, the location has had an essential role
  on the spatial distribution of migrants. For
  someone it will play an important role in
  choosing a permanent address, location, central
  and peripheral territories. We should just think
  about the distance from the place of origin, or
  the ease of contact with family. So, according to
  our hypothesis there are two separate and
  considerable geographical motives.
• The first is Budapest, the capital city of
  Hungary, which is a typical dynamic centre area
  of migration. A wide variety of occupations and
  counties of origin can be found there.
• The second geographical motive is the proximity
  to the border, which is not a barrier, but rather
  a contact zone.
• On the other hand, we can also observe
  accordingly reflected effect in the emigrant
  country, namely migrants from beside the border
  stay much closer to the border, than the others.
  The migrants from the inner counties of Ukraine
  may settle down in the centre of Hungary rather
  than in the periphery.

15
Spatial classification

• The aim of this study is to provide a
  relationship between original Ukrainian and
  current Hungarian counties.
• According to dataset, we can divide the original
  counties into three classes.
• 1. Transcarpathian Plain
• 2. Transcarpathian Mountains
• 3. Other counties.
• On the other hand we also can divide the
  Hungarian counties into three groups by viewing
  the examined migration method.
• 1. Counties near to the border (Borsod-A-Z,
  Hajdú-B, Szabolcs-Sz-B)
• 2. The centres of immigration (Budapest and Pest
  county)
• 3. Other counties

16
Map of spatial classification
17
Spatial distributions

• It is important to note that between
  Transcarpathian Plan and Central Hungary there
  are strong migration flows (40 of all migrants).
  So this migration phenomenon is quite
  concentrated. Using the above classification, we
  can point out that Ukrainian people who now live
  near to the border, come in greatest number from
  proximity to border of Ukrainian side (86,6).
  But most of the Ukrainian migrants, whose
  birthplace near to the border, have stayed in
  centre of Hungary (48,5). Budapest and Pest
  County are chosen very likely by other immigrants
  independently of place of origin.

18
Results of classification
Distribution of Ukrainian citizens residing in
Hungary by classification of the original
Ukrainian place, 1 January 2008
Distribution of Ukrainian citizens residing in
Hungary by classification of the current
Hungarian place, 1 January 2008
19
Detailed examinations-1

• This classification can be examined by
  educational attainment and age-groups. We have
  carried out that highly educated have been
  attracted by the centre class of Hungary also
  from larger distance.
• There are enourmos portion of people with higher
  education from the other classes of Ukrainian,
  who mostly stay in the centre class of Hungary.
  We confirmed, that the distribution of education
  attainment rather depends on the origin Ukrainian
  place of residence than on the original Hungarian
  one.

20
Ukrainian population in Hungary by education
attainments and spatial classifications, 1
January 2008
21
Detailed examinations-2

• Very different spatial picture have been stated
  by age-classification. In the centre of Hungary
  most of Ukainian citizens are in working age. In
  contrast, we can highlight, that among
  Subcarpathian people vast percentage are in
  inactive age.

22
Ukrainian population in Hungary by age-groups and
spatial classifications, 1 January 2008
23
Demographical and migration situation in Ukraine
Data source Derzhkomstat, www.ukrstat.gov.ua,
Author Dávid Karácsonyi
24
Population rate by rayon (annual average)
Data source www.ukrcensus.gov.ua, Author Dávid
Karácsonyi
25
Population rate by rayon (annual average)
Data source www.ukrcensus.gov.ua, homepages of
oblast statistical offices of Derzhkomstat Author
Dávid Karácsonyi
26
Natural population change by rayon (2004)
()
Data source Derzhkomstat oblast statistical
yearbooks, 2004, Author Dávid Karácsonyi
27
Migration balance by rayon (2004)
()
Data source Derzhkomstat oblast statistical
yearbooks, 2004, Author Dávid Karácsonyi
28
Migration situation types of rayons
Data source Derzhkomstat oblast statistical
yearbooks, 2004 Author Dávid Karácsonyi
Total population decrease Influence of migration over 50 Influence of migration under 50 Total population increase Influence of migration over 50 Influence of migration under 50
Outmigration blue white Outmigration impossible green
Inmigration impossible orange Inmigration red no such unit
29
Ageing Index 2001 (population older/younger than
capable of work)
()
Data source www.ukrcensus.gov.ua, Author Dávid
Karácsonyi
30
Denepndency Ratio 2001 (olderyounger than
capable of work / capable of work )
Data source www.ukrcensus.gov.ua, Author Dávid
Karácsonyi
31
Components of population change (2003-2005)

Natural population change
Interregional migration
International migration
Data source Derzhkomstat, www.ukrstat.gov.ua,
Author Dávid Karácsonyi
32
Demographical situation in Transcarpatia
(Zakarpattya) oblast
Total population change 1989-2001
Map source Károly Kocsis et al. 2006
33
Migration in Rayons of Zakarpattya oblast
(2003-2005)
Data source Derzhkomstat oblast statistical
yearbook of Zakarpattya oblast, 2003, 2004, 2005
Author Dávid Karácsonyi
34
Ukrainian citizens staying in Hungary with
settlement of origin in Zakarpattya oblast, 2001
Data source BÁH, Hungarian Office for Imigration
and Citizenship Author Dávid Karácsonyi, Áron
Kincses, Cartography Zsolt Bottlik/MTA FKI
35
Ukrainian citizens staying in Hungary with
settlement of origin in Zakarpattya oblast, 2008
Data source BÁH, Hungarian Office for Imigration
and Citizenship Author Dávid Karácsonyi, Áron
Kincses, Cartography Zsolt Bottlik/MTA FKI
36
Ratio of ethnic Ukrainian population, 1989
Map source Károly Kocsis et al. 2006
37
Ratio of ethnic Ukrainian population, 2001
Map source Károly Kocsis et al. 2006
38
Ratio of ethnic Hungarian population, 1989
Map source Károly Kocsis et al. 2006
39
Ratio of ethnic Hungarian population, 2001
Map source Károly Kocsis et al. 2006
40
Change in the number of ethnic Hungarian
population 1989-2001
Map source Károly Kocsis et al. 2006
41
Applicants for Hungarian card, 2002-2004
Original Hungarian map source www.geox.hu,
Cartography Dávid Karácsonyi
42
Thank you very much for your attention! Köszönjük
a szíves figyelmüket! ??????? ??????? ?? ????
????????!