National Perspectives

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National Perspectives
What are Climate Change Impacts on NZ SMEs?
Gavin Fisher
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Covering

• Climate Change in NZ
• NZBCSD/NIWA Approach
• The National Policy Scene
• Business Implications

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Whats driving it all?
ENERGY USE
Source World Resource Institute
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Climate
Coming season Next year El Nino
cycles IPO cycles Climate Change
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Its definitely getting warmer
Global average temperature and sea level are
projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001
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What about New Zealand?
Worst case
Extrapolated
Best case
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Is it that simple?
NEVER SIMPLE!
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Large scale climate ENSO
(El Nino Southern Oscillation)
Sea temperature difference from average
La Niña Conditions Summer 1998/99
El Niño Conditions Summer 1997/98

• Based in the tropical Pacific ocean
• Large influence on New Zealand, on average
• Large scales but local effects

Source Jim Renwick
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Summer rain, West Coast
Normal rainfall
Drier
Wetter
Wetter
Drier
El Niño changes the odds of climate events
Source Jim Renwick
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Large scale climate IPO
(Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation)
La Niña-like
El Niño-like
Source Jim Renwick
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IPO Local effects
New Zealand rainfall 1978-99 minus 1947-77
Increased westerlies, El Niños Small mean
changes, but long time scales
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Climate change 1990 to 2040

• Global mean temperature rise around 1ºC
• Mean changes for NZ, 6 global models
• Interaction with ENSO, IPO

Source Jim Renwick
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Longer term climate change detail
Source David Wratt
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Putting it together

• Use knowledge of New Zealand climate
• Input to productivity models
• Input to energy system/price models

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New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable
Development Approach
Just do it!
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Climate Change Projects - Phase III
Starting in late 1999.

• Phase 1 Business Opportunities
• Introduction to what it all means for business
• Phase 2 Emissions Assessment
• Simple why and how of emissions reporting
• Phase 3 Emissions Management
• Now get it all into business operations!
• Plus continue to assist government agencies on
  policy development relating to business issues.

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NZBCSD Activities

• Business case why bother?
• Practical tools
• facilities, equipment, operations, suppliers,
  waste, travel, energy use, etc
• Case studies
• Help with access to resources
• eg EECA, MfE, SBN
• Mentoring
• Web site availability

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National Policy Scene
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National Policy Drivers

• WHAT?
• Ratification of Kyoto Protocol (just waiting on
  the Russians)
• Climate Change Strategies
• Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy
• National Sustainable Growth Strategy

• WHO?
• NZ Climate Change Office
• EECA
• Ministry for the Environment
• Ministry of Economic Development
• Local Government NZ
• Ministry of Transport

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Our Government Commitments
Big driver is reducing NZs greenhouse gas
emissions
Can argue about WHY but for whatever reason,
the practical side is now HOW we do it!
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New Projects Scheme
Announced this week.
This is where the Government issues tradable
Emissions Units for each tonne of CO2 not
released that might have been otherwise, after
2008. Details..
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Emissions Units

• 4 Million available (4 M tonnes CO2)
• Value will be set by market
• currently around 10 each
• For near viable projects that reduce
  emissions
• Apply next week see www.gets.govt.nz
• Focused on re-newable energy, but also fuel
  efficiency,
• waste reduction, etc
• But need to save minimum 10,000 tonnes over
  2008-2012

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Total emissions by region
This is most of it- CO2 CH4 N2O
81 M t CO2e
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PER POPULATION
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Business Implications
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Example Climate Impact Analysis
Source David Wratt
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Example Productivity Impact Analysis

Kiwifruit
More opportunities?
Source Gavin Kenny
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Bottom Lines

• Carbon Taxes
• somebodys probably going to be paying them
• Fuel Costs
• very likely to feel the impacts
• Damage Insurance
• going to need more cover, and more
  sophisiticated
• Weather Drivers
• affects a lot of aspects of business in NZ
• Global Markets
• we are often at the mercy of trends beyond our
  influence

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SMEs
Future proofing its happening fast!

• Get involved
• become aware, and keep in touch
• Improve efficiency of energy use
• transport fuel, electricity, solid fuel
• More sophisticated finance / insurance products
  spread the risk
• More value added green products
• the global market is waiting
• Look for new opportunities, as well as be in the
  front line at dealing with changes in the
  specific business environment

This is why we are here now!
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Summary
Real climate change will have impacts on NZ
positive and negative
They are complex
NZBCSD and others really are trying to make a
difference
The Government is committed and there is a lot
happening
If climate change doesnt affect you carbon
taxes and energy cost probably will!
Find, and listen to, trustworthy sources of
advise and information
Just do it!
Gavin Fisher National Centre for Climate-Energy
Solutions www.niwa.co.nz/ncces/