A1260031546WUdeI

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The future of telecoms- technologies and trends
Berit Svendsen, Vice President andHead of
ProductsIS, Telenor Norway
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• Innovators dont change the world.
• The users of their innovations do.
• (Michael Schrage, MIT Media Lab)

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Development in telecommunications
First transatlanticcable opened
Internet(Arpanet)was born
Commer-sialisation of NMT
Internettakes off
1969
1981
1993
The age of Internet
The age mobile telephony
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Mobile telephony
3.0 mrd
2.5 mrd
2.0 mrd
1.5 mrd
Fixed telephony
1.0 mrd
0.5 mrd
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Kilde London Business School / GSMA /
Deloitte / Verdensbanken
Most people in the world will meet Internet for
the first time through mobile phone
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Users perspective End-user Device Driven
Convergence
Same person multiple roles and multiple service
usage situations
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Open up those broadband highways?

• To get full advantage of broadband - Fibre to
  the home is the ultimate solution. Cost is
  prohibitive
• Access to Internet everywhere Wireless networks
  offer mobility

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Open up those broadband highways?

• Users are changing the way they use Internet
  thanksto social networks
• TV- and video-content readyfor downloading
• Telenors experience
• 40 traffic increase per user
• 100 traffic increase in network y-o-y
• 15 of users using 75 of network capacity

Result Telecommunication network is running out
of bandwidth
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Nordic countries are advanced regarding
broadband4a. Broadband subscribers per 100
inhabitants in OECD countries, June 2007
OECD
Source OECD ICT Key Indicators
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Fiber to the home roll out - Status Western Europe
Belgacom
France Telecom
Swisscom
Deutsche Telecom
Telenor
TeliaSonera
KPN
British Telecom
TDC
Telefonica
Siminn
Telecom Italia
Increasing infrastructure investment
No ADSL upgrade
ADSL2
Partly VDSL upgrade
VDSL
FTTH
Partly FTTH
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Rapid growth for IPTV globally
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The battle about the PC and mobile screen

• Computing is moving online, away from desktop and
  Microsoft to Google, master of online search
• Googles value 160 billion versus Microsofts
  value 270 bill,
• Will software be delivered as an internet-based
  service supported by advertising?

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Industry players Google is the winner
Google and telcos2005- 2007
Telcos 1999 - 2006
Telecoms-equipment makers
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Trends in RD

• Innovation comes more from software than hardware
• Firms hungry for innovation look to MA,
  partnerships with universities and takeovers in
  addition to own research
• The old model of research, of putting people in
  a bubble is over. Most interesting research is
  now done where technology touches people
  Bernando Hubermann, senior scientist HP
• With Internet ideas can be tried out fast,
  directly on consumers, who can further develop
  them and with immediate feedback from customers
• There is at least as much creativity in finding
  ways to take the idea to market as coming up with
  the idea John seely Brown, former PARC director

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The phone of the future

• Hidden in jewellery or accessories or even
  embedded in the body
• Will have enough storage capacity to be able to
  video its users entire life
• Store every piece of music ever recorded in one
  chip included in the phone
• Remote control for life..
• Tiny projectors inside telephones allow walls,
  tabletops or screens made of flexible materials
  to be used as displays
• Input from
• Sensors in the collar lip-reading
• Chips in brain picks up brain activity

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Expected huge growth in machine-2-machine

• Internet gets ears andeyes
• 150 million machines in Scandinavia
• But different parts dont work to well together
  - yet