The Debate Over Missile Defense in Europe

1
The Debate Over Missile Defensein Europe

• Robert G. Bell
• SAIC
• Georgia Tech
• The Sam Nunn School of International Affairs
• October 12, 2009

2
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates

• I have found since taking this post that when it
  comes to missile defense, some hold a view
  bordering on theology that regards any change of
  plans or any cancellation of a program as
  abandonment or even breaking faith.
• New York Times Op-Ed
• September 20, 2009

3
Missile Defense Decision Pathway
4
President Obama in Prague, April 5th

• Let me be clear Irans nuclear and ballistic
  missile activity poses a real threat, not just to
  the United States but to Irans neighbors and our
  allies. The Czech Republic and Poland have been
  courageous in agreeing to host a defense against
  these missiles. As long as the threat from Iran
  persists, we will go forward with a missile
  defense system that is cost-effective and proven.

5
President Obamas September 17th Announcement

• As I said during the campaign, President Bush
  was right that Irans ballistic missile program
  poses a significant threat. And that is why I am
  committed to deploying strong missile defense
  systems that are adaptable to the threats of the
  21st century. This new approach will provide
  capabilities sooner, build on proven systems, and
  offer greater defenses against the threat of
  missile attack than the 2007 European missile
  defense program.

6
Bush v. Obama Plans

• Brand X
• stronger, smarter and swifter defenses

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Potential Iranian Ballistic Missile Range
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Obama Plan v. Bush Plan

• Phased, adaptive approach
• Defend Europe first, US later
• Sea-based SM-3 in 2011
• Progressively upgraded land-based SM-3s in 2015,
  2018, 2020
• New sensors
• Forward based radar in Turkey
• NATO invited to be full partners from the start

• 3rd Site
• Defend US and Europe from start
• 10 GBIs in Poland, midcourse fire control radar
  in Czech Rep.
• Forward based radar in Turkey
• NATO invited to fill in gaps

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Which Provides Defense Sooner?

• Obama
• 2009 TMD for defending forces ready now
• 2011 defense of SE Europe against short to
  medium-range Iranian missiles
• 2020 defense of all Europe and USA against
  long-range Iranian missiles

• Bush
• 2009 TMD for defending forces ready now
• 2015-17 defense of most of Europe and USA
  against Iranian medium and long-range missiles

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Which Keeps Faith Better with our Loyal Allies?

• Obama
• 30 land-based SM-3 Block IA interceptors in
  Poland (US offer)
• Scores of SM-3 IAs offered for deployment
  elsewhere in Europe
• SM-3s and/or Command and control HQ in Czech Rep.
  (US offer)

• Bush
• 10 GBIs deployed in Poland (agreed by Polish
  Govt.)
• Midcourse fire control radar deployed in Czech
  Rep (agreed by Czech govt.)

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Which Costs More?

• Obama
• The cost of an SM-3 IB is about 10 million
  versus a GBI, which costs 70 million today, and
  against the the more advanced SM-3s, the cost
  estimate is 15 million per copy. (LtGen
  OReilly, MDA Director)

• Bush
• Defending Europe using three Aegis ships equipped
  with SM-3 Block II interceptors would cost twice
  as much as the now abandoned approach, 18-22B v.
  9-13B). (CBO Feb 2009 Report to Congress)

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Which Builds on More Proven Technology?

• Obama
• SM-3 Block IA already deployed
• SM-3 Block IB sensor under development
• SM-3 Block IIA and IIB are paper systems
• New sensors (inc. on UAVs) to be developed
• 2-stage GBI test in 2010

• Bush
• European GBI a two stage variant of 3-stage GBI
  tested 8 times since 2001 (7 successful)
• 2-stage GBI test in 2010
• Radar already deployed

13
Which Promotes Most Cooperation with Russia?

• Obama
• The Russians dont make determinations about
  what our defense posture is. (Obama)
• Improved relationship with Russia an ancilliary
  benefit..but it wasnt the driver by far (Jones)
• Correct and brave decision (Putin)
• US could deploy missile shield in Arctic!
  (Rogozin)
• Statementsraise more questions than answers
  (Lavrov)

• Bush
• CBM/transparency proposals rejected
• START extension held hostage
• Nuclear-armed cruise missiles to be moved to
  Kalingrad
• NATO-Russia TMD cooperation suspended

14

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Russian Interceptors (12)
Interceptor Site Korolev
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Russian Interceptors (16)
Interceptor Site Lytkarino
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Russian Interceptors (16)
Interceptor Site Skhodnya
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Russian Interceptors (12)
Interceptor Site Sofrino
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Russian Interceptors (12)
Interceptor Site Vnukovo
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Russian ABM Battle Management Center
Radar Site PILLBOX
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Russian MD Radar
Radar Site Gabala, Azerbaijan
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Russian MD Radar
Radar Site Lekhtusi (12/2006) Another
Voronezh DM of this type was constructed in
Armavir in 2007
23
Russian MD Radar Coverage

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Which Provides More Defense for America?

• Obama
• Alaska/California GBIs remain on alert
• 92 probability of stopping Iranian attack
  (Cartright)
• GBI deployments capped at current levels
• No additional homeland defense capability until
  2020 ( via SM-3 IIB).

• Bush
• Alaska/California GBIs remain on alert
• 96 probability of stopping Iranian attack once
  GBIs operational in Poland (Cartright)
• Additional GBIs to be deployed in Alaska

25
Obama v. Bush Plan

• Where do you come out?

26
Sam Nunn on Role of Missile Defense

• I dont view ballistic missile defense as simply
  a tactical matter to extract cooperation from
  Russia on Iran. I dont disagree that kind of
  cooperation is needed. But theres a much bigger
  picture here, which is that we are going to need
  some type of missile defense systems in the
  future, and having Russia as part of that effort
  is enormously important. We cant wish away this
  whole set of dangers that relate to the delivery
  of a nuclear weapon, either against us or our
  allies.
• - Interview, April 6, 2009