Item 3: Methods to Improve Estimates of Migration Flows

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Item 3 Methods to Improve Estimates of Migration
Flows
DiscussantMarcel Heiniger, Swiss Federal
Statistical Office

• Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration
  Statistics, Geneva, 3-5 March 2008

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Presentations

• 1. WP 8 The MIMOSA model for estimating
  international migration flows in the European
  Union
• 2. WP 4 Comparing international migrations flows
  between sending and receiving countries Lessons
  of a recent cooperation between Belgium and the
  Netherlands
• 3. WP 10 Measuring net migration using household
  surveys

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The Challenge

• ? a long history of inadequate, incomparable and
  missing migration data
• ? the need for an international migration data
  base that is complete, consistent and contains
  reliable migration estimates

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The Problem

• Guidelines and methodologies for providing
  harmonized estimates of international migration
  flows have yet to be developed or implemented

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The Goals

• to bridge the gap between available data on
  international migration flows and the information
  required for policy makers and research
• to develop and employ methodologies to convert
  raw data on migration into internationally
  comparable statistics
• 3. to estimate migration flow data that are
  comparable across countries and to establish a
  coherent and consistent data base that contains
  sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and reliable
  information

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Possible Approaches

• 1. to estimate net migration
• 2. to estimate gross migration flows

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Current Initiatives

• Project MIgration MOdeling for Statistical
  Analyses (MIMOSA)
• To develop appropriate methodologies to reconcile
  the differences in international migration
  statistics in European countries and to assist EU
  Member States to produce more reliable migration
  figures, to make all available figures more
  compatible and more comparable and to estimate
  missing data using all available data and expert
  opinions

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Possible Approaches (2)

• origin-destination (double entry) migration
  matrices
• models of migration
• to predict migration flows from available
  (defective) data
• to adjust data based on data deemed to be
  accurate and reliable
• to use adjusted data as the basis for estimating
  the missing data
• to augment the above information by empirically
  established regularities and expert opinions

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Models of Migration

• use available information from one or more
  sources in combination with realistic assumptions
  about the relation between various data types and
  structures of the missing data
• aim to produce the best possible estimates of
  international migration during a given period
• are rooted in statistical theory and use/combine
  different methods and techniques
• incorporate the strengths of theory and empirical
  data