MOLAND Towards sustainable urban and regional development

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Assessment and Modelling of Soil Sealing in
Europe An Application of MOLAND (Monitoring
Land Use / Land Cover Dynamics)European
Commission Directorate General Joint Research
Centre, Institute for Environment and
Sustainability Unit Land Management Team
Carlo Lavalle, Niall McCormick, Marjo Kasanko,
Luca Demicheli, Jose BarredoPhone
39-0332-785231. Fax [phone]. E-mail
carlo.lavalle_at_jrc.it.Web-site
http//moland.jrc.it

• Assessment of soil sealing at a European level
  context
• EEAs DPSIR framework for identifying
  policy-relevant soil sealing indicators
• Examples of soil sealing indicators derived from
  the MOLAND database
• Land use, transport and socio-economic datasets
• Urban sprawl, loss of natural agricultural
  land, fragmentation etc.
• Future scenarios of future urban regional land
  use development

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Assessment of soil sealing at a European level
context

• Major soil problems (EEA-UNEPs Down to Earth
  report on soil degradation)
• Sealing
• Erosion (water wind)
• Slope stability
• Contamination (urban industrial hot spots)
• Acidification (deposition from the air)
• Soil degradation in central eastern Europe
• Data gaps
• Soil sealing (EEA definition)
• The covering of soil due to urbanisation and
  transport infrastructure construction, such that
  soil is no longer able to perform the range of
  functions associated with it.
• Indicators (EEA definition)
• Quantified information which help to explain how
  things are changing over time and vary spatially.

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DPSIR framework for identifying policy-relevant
soil sealing indicators for European reporting
DPSIR element Feasible indicators
Driving forces Population density (also per physical area) Master plans / development plans Suitability maps Land use maps Policies in place affecting soil sealing
Pressures GVA (gross value added) per geographical unit Public perception Increase / decrease in urban sprawl
State / Impacts Increase / decrease in artificial areas Fragmentation of natural agricultural landscapes Green or free space not fragmented Ratio of sealed to unsealed area
Responses Changes in building land prices Policy objective, legislation Economic financial instruments aimed at soil sealing Public perception of the problem
From EEA, 2001. Proceedings of the Technical
Workshop on Indicators for Soil Sealing.
Copenhagen, 26-27 March 2001.
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MOLAND (Monitoring Land Use / Land Cover Dynamics)

• Aim
• To provide scientific and technical support to
  the ECs various DGs, services, and associated
  bodies, responsible for the conception,
  development, implementation, and monitoring of
  EU policies related to urban and regional
  development.
• Policy framework
• Thematic Strategy on the Urban Environment
  6th EC Environment Action Programme. (DG ENV)
• Indicators for Sustainable Urban and Regional
  Development. (DG ENV, EUROSTAT, EEA)
• ESDP (European Spatial Development Perspective)
  / ESPON (European Spatial Planning Observation
  Network). (DG REGIO)
• Impacts of the Structural and Cohesion Funds.
  (DG ENV)
• Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the
  Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T). (DG
  TREN)

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Example of making MOLAND land use database City
of München
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MOLAND land use nomenclature system (example)
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• Environmental data
• Air pollution
• Production of greenhouse gases
• Water pollution
• Noise levels
• Waste production
• Nature biodiversity records
• Valuable landscapes
• Protected areas (biotopes sites)
• Designated areas
• Energy consumption
• Transport data
• Transport plans
• Transport network type
• Major port, airport, rail links, bus stations
• Traffic density per type

• Geographical data
• Administrative boundaries
• Wards (1993)
• Counties
• District Electoral Divisions
• Enumeration (census) districts
• Master plans (general)
• Digital Elevation Model
• Soil
• Geology
• Rivers
• Forestry
• Waterways
• Quarry sites
• Landfill sites
• CORINE
• NISTRM

MOLAND ancillary data
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• Demographic data
• Population density
• Age distribution
• Gender distribution
• Education level
• Housing type
• Religion
• Emigration, immigration, migration
• Commuter rate
• of employees per economic sector
• Seasonal population
• Crime rates
• Participation rates in elections
• Voting patterns in elections

• Economic data
• Number, type location of companies
• Level of employment
• Income
• GRP
• Trade in goods
• Land prices
• Tourism
• RD expenditure
• Domestic foreign investment
• European Regional Development Funding

MOLAND ancillary data
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MOLAND study areas in Europe
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MOLAND study areas in Northern Ireland and
Republic of Ireland
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area land use
(2000)
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area
socio-economic data for administration units
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area example
of IRS satellite imagery used
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area land use
for City of Dublin and environs (2000)
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area 3.5x3.5
km sub-section
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area (3.5x3.5
km) land use polygons in 2000
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area (3.5x3.5
km) land use categories in 2000
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area (3.5x3.5
km) land use categories in 1990
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area Area of
Artificial (i.e. Urban) Surface Types
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area Area of
Non-Artificial (i.e. Peri-Urban) Surface Types
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MOLAND database (2000) Northern Ireland
Border Counties of Irish Republic
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Northern Ireland and Border Counties of Irish
Republic IRS satellite image coverage
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IRS satellite image scene 429a (date 22 May
2000)
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Example of database Belfast and environs
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Example of database Belfast and environs
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Example of database City of Belfast
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Belfast Local Government Districts Area of Land
Use Types
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Northern Irelands Local Government
Districts Percentage of Urban Fabric that is
Residential Areas
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Northern Irelands Local Government
Districts Population in Year 2003
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Tallinn-Parnu Corridor Harjumaa County
(Estonia) MOLAND Land Use, Transport,
Socio-Economic Database for Years 2000 1985
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Municipalities of Estonia
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Municipality of Tallinn (Estonia) Distribution
of Artificial Non-Artificial Surface Types
in Year 2000
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MOLAND study area in Istanbul centre and buffer
zone
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Land use change in Istanbul - example Fatih
Bridge
1940
1987
2000
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Land use change in Istanbul - example coastal
zone to port and dock area
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Istanbul, Turkey
2000
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Istanbul, Turkey
2000
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Istanbul, Turkey
1988
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Istanbul, Turkey
1968
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Istanbul, Turkey
1945
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Istanbul, Turkey
1945
1968
1988
2000
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Land use change in Istanbul increase in
residential area
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Land use change in Istanbul increase in business
area
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Land use change in Istanbul loss of agricultural
land
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Land use change in Istanbul agriculture to
urban fabric
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Land use change in Istanbul comparison of Asian
and European sides
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Iraklion, Greece
1960
1972
1988
1997
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Marseille, France
1955
1964
1979
1997
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Nicosia, Cyprus
1957
1970
1990
1997
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MOLAND reference and historical land use
database Palermo, Italy
1955
1963
1989
1997
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• Land use indicators
• Urban sprawl indicators
• Combining statistics and land-use changes
• Fragmentation indices
• European Common Indicators

Indicators related to soil sealing computed from
MOLAND databases
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• Types of indicators
• Basic indicators (taken at a fixed date)
• Proportion of land use categories
• Proportion of road network crossing the various
  land use categories
• Fragmentation indices
• Dynamic indicators (refer to typology of change)
  
• Transition from a land-use class to another
• Trends of transformation
• Sustainable development indicators (combining
  environmental and socio-economic data)
• Land use vs. statistical data (e.g transport /
  commuters)

MOLAND territorially based indicators to assess
urban and regional environments
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Land use indicators
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Transport indicators road network density
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Growth of artificial areas in selected European
urban areas (1950s-1990s)
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Loss of natural areas in selected European urban
areas (1950s-1990s)
KM2
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Urban sprawl change in distance of residential
areas from the city centre
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Urban sprawl cross-tabulation of the size of
residential area and the average distance from
the city centre (1950s-1990s)
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Proportion of green areas in selected European
cities (1950s-1990s)
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Copenhagen green urban areas and the 500m belts
around them
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Percentage of inhabitants living within a 500m
belt around green urban areas
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Dresden commuter patterns and land use evolution
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Munich noise source analysis
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Indicators of landscape fragmentation due to
urbanisation
Three scales Patch (P) Class (C) Landscape
(L).
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Landscape fragmentation analysis Derry, Northern
Ireland
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Landscape fragmentation analysis Belfast,
Northern Ireland
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Landscape fragmentation analysis Dublin, Ireland
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Landscape fragmentation analysis Dublin, Ireland
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DPSIR framework for identifying policy-relevant
soil sealing indicators for European reporting
DPSIR element Feasible indicators
Driving forces Population density (also per physical area) Master plans / development plans Suitability maps Land use maps Policies in place affecting soil sealing
Pressures GVA (gross value added) per geographical unit Public perception Increase / decrease in urban sprawl
State / Impacts Increase / decrease in artificial areas Fragmentation of natural agricultural landscapes Green or free space not fragmented Ratio of sealed to unsealed area
Responses Changes in building land prices Policy objective, legislation Economic financial instruments aimed at soil sealing Public perception of the problem
From EEA, 2001. Proceedings of the Technical
Workshop on Indicators for Soil Sealing.
Copenhagen, 26-27 March 2001.
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MOLAND Urban and Regional Growth Model
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Model input data land use types and transport
networks
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Model input data accessibility to transport
networks (one for each land use)
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• Land use zoning status (legal constraints for
  different land uses), computed from
• Master plans
• Zoning plans
• Designated areas for agriculture, housing,
  industry, commerce, recreation, etc.
• Protected areas
• Historic sites
• Natural sites and reserves
• Land ownership
• etc.
• Land use suitability (inherent suitability for
  different land uses), computed from
• DEM (slope, aspect)
• Soil quality or geo-morphology
• Natural hazards (fire, flood, landslide, etc.)
• Air pollution

Model input data maps of land use zoning and
land use suitability
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• Statistical data-sets describing the
  socio-economic characteristics of the
• administrative regions (e.g. counties)
• Demography population and income
• Agriculture production (monetary), and
  employment
• Industry production (monetary), and employment
• Commerce production (monetary), and employment
• Services production (monetary), and employment

Model input data socio-economic data
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•  
• The transition rules specify the interaction
  between neighbouring land use types
• Example Effect of Residential discontinuous
  sparse urban fabric on
• In other words Residential discontinuous sparse
  urban fabric will tend to occur beside cells of
  the same type, and not beside Industrial areas

Transition rules of model
(a) itself
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• Add a new transport link to the transport network
  database

Type of planning / policy intervention (1)
Application (example)
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• Modify an areas zoning status for a land use
  type (e.g. industrial areas)

Type of planning / policy intervention (2)
Application (example)
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• Modify an areas suitability for a land use type
  (e.g. residential urban fabric)

Type of planning / policy intervention (3)
Application (example)
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• Modify the socio-economic data (e.g. population,
  income, production, employment)

Type of planning / policy intervention (4)
Application (example)
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• Change the transition rules defining the
  interaction between adjacent land use types

Type of planning / policy intervention (5)
Neutral effect of water bodies on residential
areas
Attraction effect of water bodies on
residential areas
Application (example)
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• Example Dublin (Scenario 1)
• Residential areas will tend not to occur in
  North-East, due to several factors
• Lack of transport links
• Low suitability for residential areas
• Neutral effect of water bodies on residential
  areas

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• Example Dublin (Scenario 2)
• Residential areas will tend to occur in
  North-East, after some planning / policy
  interventions
• Transport links added
• High suitability for residential areas
• Attraction effect of water bodies on
  residential areas

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MOLAND modelling future scenarios of land use
development (Friuli, Italy)
Examples
Simulation b (transport infrastructure added)
Time 20 years
Simulation a
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• Monitor progress towards sustainability under
  existing spatial plans policies
• Compare impacts (e.g. on soil sealing) of
  alternative spatial planning policy scenarios
• Determine critical factors affecting land use
  development (e.g. soil sealing)

MOLAND model as a decision-support tool for
spatial planners and policy-makers
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area 3.5x3.5
km sub-section
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area (3.5x3.5
km) land use polygons in 2000
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area (3.5x3.5
km) land use categories for 2000
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MOLAND database for Greater Dublin Area (3.5x3.5
km) land use categories in 1990