Uncertainty studies in developing better future models

1
Uncertainty studies in developing better future
models

• World Futures Studies Federation
• 19th World Conference
• Budapest, 22 August 2005
• Péter Alács,
• Corvinus University of Budapest

2
Principles of future modeling

• Knowledge
• Science?
• What is science?
• Disciplines
• Complexity
• Aspects of understanding
• Levels of understanding

3
Micro or macro?

• Micro and macro level methods?
• Understanding (micro) and verification (macro)
• Top-level (macro) methods
• Buttom-up (micro) methods
• Emergency in complex systems
• New collective phenomena coded in the
  interactions on the micro level

4
Uncertainty

• The risk within the model
• Stochastic methods
• Non-stochastic methods
• The risk of the model
• Contradictory necessity
• High handed freedom
• Sensitivity (robust models)
• Creative understanding (?)

5
Time horizon

• Comparing the risk within the model and the risk
  of the model
• Different behavior in time
• Does additional information raise or decrease the
  time horizon?
• Method / model selection

6
THANK YOU!