Die Geschichte der MDF

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The future of the Mail in the forthcoming Years
Date April 20, 2005
Author François Gillet
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During the past 20 years, paper use has more
than doubled Paper tonnage consumption is
projected to increase until 2021 for all paper
applications with the exception of newsprint.
Paper mail remains the preferred medium for
information receipt but is not always the
preferred medium for responses to mailed
communications. This is where electronic
communications are and will continue to have the
greatest impact in the near term.
Source Consumer Preferences of Chrystal Szeto
and Luis Jimenez (Pitney Bowes)
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U.S. and Europe (15) e-mail vs. Mail per capita
A surprising observation Volume of mail is not
directly tied to number of e-mails exchanged
Source Substitution Patterns of Fouad H. Nader
(Adrenale Corporation) and Luis A. Jimenez
(Pitney Bowes)
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• MAIL FORECASTS
• Institute for the future (IFTF) 1.6 in U.S.
  and 1.1 in EC
• World Bank 73 of mail volume tied to GDP
  variations
• European commission
• a) Coopers Lybrand Study (1996) 15 to 28
  decline by 2005
• b) PwC in 1997 and PLS Ramboll in 2002
  (telephone will have no impact)
• c) Wik Study (2004) Decline of about 1 / year
  through 2009
• - E-Biss (2003) letters will decline and Direct
  Mail will grow
• - UPU Post 2005 and Strategic Planning Group
• UPU Postal Market 2004
• Pitney Bowes

Source Forecasts of Fouad H. Nader (Adrenale
Corporation)
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Source Forecasts of Fouad H. Nader (Adrenale
Corporation)
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• SPG discussed various possible future scenarios
  for posts up to 2010.
• The principal assumptions are the following
• -The world expected GDP is expected to
  grow at between 3 and 4 a year until 2010
• The asymmetries among countries will persist
• The recovery of the largest economies will be
  slow
• The oscillations in predictions and sensitivity
  of postal traffic will be extreme.

GDP Gross Domestic Product
Source Forecasts of Fouad H. Nader (Adrenale
Corporation)
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UPU Postal Market 2004 Postal Operators
responding to the most recent UPU survey
generally expected a modest annual increase in
domestic postal items for 2004- 2008.
Advertising items and parcels received the most
positive prognosis for growth across all
regions. The operatorsforecasts for letter post
vary among regions, with Europe / CIS estimating
a 1.7 annual increase and all industrialized
nations combined projecting a -0.5 annual
decline in domestic volumes for the period
2004-2008.
Source Forecasts of Fouad H. Nader (Adrenale
Corporation)
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Other Surveys

• Pitney Bowes scenario (2003)
• A 2003 Pitney Bowes presentation issued an
  informal prognosis
• of a Slow Erosion, Low Growth Scenario for
  International Conferences
• whereby mail would grow or decline around 1
  annualy over the
• next 5 10 years (Jimenez, 2003)
• The newer forecasts anticipate a modest increase
  (around 1)
• in domestic postal items for the next 5 years.

Source Forecasts of Fouad H. Nader (Adrenale
Corporation)
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• Conclusion and Solystics belief for 2010
• Mail Volume will stay at the same level (maybe
  slightly increased)
• This volume is to be shared between many Postal
  Operators
• (National Postal Operators others)
• Which means less volume than today for each NPO
• Need for each NPO to counterbalance the revenue
  loss

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• How to counterbalance the loss of revenue ?
• To keep the processing costs as low as possible
• To provide value added services (such as
  in-office sorting)
• To offer new products or services which will
  induce mail generation
• Mailing Industry Task Force in the U.S.
• Club Courrier in France

• Improvement of the quality of service
• Minimize the constraints on the mail to be
  processed
• Attractive rates to keep the customers.

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Its very difficult to make predictions, especia
lly about the future.
Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1922
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Thank you for your attention