Kauplemine

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Kauplemine

• Oliver Ait ja Joel Kukemelk
• aprill 2007

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Kauplemise põhivead (1)

• Liiga suured panused
• I'm making big bets on one or two stocks because
  if I'm right, I'll make a lot of money, but if
  I'm wrong, I'll be in real trouble.

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Kauplemise põhivead (2)

• Stop-lossi leebe kasutamine!
• When my trade goes against me, I'm afraid to
  sell for a loss because I might be selling at the
  bottom, and the stock will take off without me.
  But sometimes the stock keeps falling to a point
  that I can't afford to take the loss.

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Kauplemise põhivead (3)

• Riski-tulu suhe peab olema atraktiivne. Keeruline
  põhjendada tehingu õigsust, kui suhtarv 1st
  väiksem.
• Paikapandud hinnasiht on oluline!
• Risk/reward ratio
• 11 000 000??!

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Kauplemise põhivead (4)

• Liiga vähe infotliiga palju kõhutunnet.
• Peaaegu alati on keegi, kel on toimuva liikumise
  kohta rohkem infot.

Välja peaksime jõudma
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Interaktiivne kauplemine

• Interaktiivne info ühildamine sellega, mille
  kohta on juba eeltöö ära tehtud.
• Seoste loomine, ettevõtte tegevust mõjutavate
  tegurite, konkurentide tundmine.

Konkreetne näide
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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

• Tulemused ja CC 19. jaanuaril kell 9 ET
• Mida me enne tulemusi peame teadma?
• Sektori trend, ootused
• Kas tahame sektorist osta või müüa?
• Sektori ettevõtted ja nende iseärasused
• Tehniline pilt

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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

• Paar päeva enne CC-d nafta hind langes, OIH
  tõusis.
• Ootused olid madalad
• Otsime ostu võimalust
• Seosed
• Tehniline pilt ostuks sobiv

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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC
SLB enne CC-d ehk 18.01.07
Ootused madalad
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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC

• We have every confidence in the deepwater!
• New rigs start to come out from the shipyards in
  2008 and 2009!
• The world is realizing that the period of cheap
  hydrocarbon energy has ended and new and higher
  sustained levels of investment are necessary to
  meet demand and guarantee future supplies.

RIG, DRQ, DO, FTI, NE, CAM
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Schlumberger (SLB)
19.01.07 - Avanemine eelmise päeva tippudel!
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Transocean (RIG)
Risk/reward 12.8
Avanemine 74.54
Siht 75.8
Stop-loss 74.1
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Dril Quip (DRQ)
18.01 19.01
Risk/reward 11.4
Avanemine 35.54
Siht 36.4
Stop-loss 34.9
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FMC Technologies (FTI)
Risk/reward 12
Avanemine 57.35
Stop-loss 56.6
Siht 58.8
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Schlumberger (SLB) 20.04.07
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AAPL - PALM ja RIMM
09.01.07
Nõrkus hoolimata sellest, et AAPL langes
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Apple (AAPL) 09.01.07

• 12.20 ET - Jobs We 're only talking about the
  mac today
• 12.43 ET - Apple Computer introduces mobile phone
  
• 12.44 ET - Apple Computer Also introduces
  widescreen iPod and internet communicator
• 12.44 ET - Apple Computer says Iphone is
  widescreen iPod and phone

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Research in Motion (RIMM)
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Apple saaga jätkub

• 22. märts uudis
• Prudential survey checks indicate upcoming
  Apple iPhone will likely use an OLED display from
  Samsung-SDI
• Prudential notes that their checks indicate
  that the upcoming Apple iPhone will likely use an
  OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) display from
  Samsung-SDI. Firm thinks OLEDs could cannibalize,
  if not ultimately replace LCD displays in
  notebooks PCs, desktop PC monitors, cellphones
  and even TVs. With thinner displays and better
  power dissipation, mobile handset and notebook PC
  markets are candidates for mass adoption - so the
  OLED opportunity appears compelling. Firm says
  the industry is still climbing down the
  manufacturing yield curve, and mass market
  adoption is likely several years away. Firm
  believes OLEDs are a disruptive technology, and
  investors should have it on their radar screen.

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Universal Display Corporation (PANL)

• Universal Display Corporation engages in the
  research, development, and commercialization of
  organic light emitting diode (OLED) technologies
  for use in various flat panel display and other
  applications. Mcap 528m, Käive 12m, short 18.5.
• 10-K 2006, three manufacturers purchased our
  proprietary OLED materials for use in commercial
  OLED display products Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. of
  South Korea, AU Optronics Corporation of Taiwan
  and Tohoku Pioneer Corporation of Japan.
• In addition, we are working with many other
  companies who are evaluating our OLED
  technologies and materials for possible use in
  commercial OLED display and lighting products,
  including Seiko Epson Corporation, Konica Minolta
  Technology Center, Inc. and Sony Corporation.

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Medtronic (MDT) ja Greatbatch (GB)

• SITUATSIOON
• 21. november MDT kvartalitulemused Medtronic
  beats by 0.03 Reports Q2 (Oct) earnings of
  0.59 per share, 0.03 better than the Reuters
  Estimates consensus of 0.56 revenues rose 11.2
  year/year to 3.08 bln vs the 2.97 bln
  consensus. Co reports I.C.D. revs of 764 mln, up
  4 YoY.
• Conference Call Expects U.S. ICD market to
  rebound with a chance to return to double digit
  growth rates in 2008
• Prognoos says growth profile was hurt by a
  slowdown in the US ICD market anticipates
  continues growth says reiterating 12.2-12.6 bln
  rev growth as is still reasonable as they believe
  ICD market will continue to grow 'although
  slowly' believe Y08 revs of 13.7-14.0 bln
  remains reasonable, Reuters consensus is 13.7
  bln Y08 EPS 2.65-2.70, Reuters consensus is
  2.67
• Võeti turuosa konkurendilt Boston Scientific (BSX)

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Võimalus

• Tulemused olid üllatavad kogu sektori jaoks.
  Ootused madalad ning ICD turu paranemine
  ilmselgelt avas paljude investorite/kauplejate
  silmad.
• Buy Greatbatch (GB). Mcap 560m, käive 271m. Short
  10. Tegevusala Südamerütmurite
  patareide/komponentide arendamine ja tootmine.
• Suuremate klientide hulka kuuluvad suured tootjad
  nagu Guidant (GDT), St. Jude Medical (STJ),
  Medtronic (MDT), Biotronik, Cyberonics (CYBX).
  2005. aastal moodustasid Guidant, St. Jude
  Medical ja Medtronic kokku 70 ettevõtte
  kogukäibest.
• Sõltuvus ICD turust ning varasem korrelatsioon
  suurtootjatega. Madalad ootused ja vähetuntud
  ettevõte.

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LAM Research Corp. (LRCX)

• LRCX (Mcap 6.5B, käive 2.2B, Tegevusala
  Semiconductor Equipment Materials). Tulemused
  17. jaanuaril On conf call, co guides MarQ to
  revs of 635-650 mln vs 638 mln consensus EPS
  to 1.03-1.07 vs 1.14 consensus. Co notes
  pushouts in the March qtr. For the full yr, co
  guides 2007 EPS to 4.10-4.30 vs 4.47 consensus...
  
• Kommentaar Cowen notes that LRCX shipments were
  lower than anticipated as some customers are
  pushing out deliveries from March to June or
  beyond. Though it well may be a short-term pause,
  they think LRCX likely to get hit hard on
  commentary.
• Firm thinks AMAT (25B mcap), KLAC (11B mcap), and
  NVLS (4B mcap) on front-end are likely to be
  impacted a bit too. They note that LRCX margins
  under a little pressure

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Protsess
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Võimalused

• Advanced Energy (AEIS, Mcap lt1B, käive 410m)
  supplies sub-components to manage power, flow,
  and temperature for capital equipment used in the
  production of semiconductors and other related
  end markets such as data storage and flat panel
  displays.
• 10 - K Our products are sold worldwide to more
  than 100 OEMs and directly to more than 500 end
  users. Our ten largest customers accounted for
  63, 57 and 60 of our sales in 2006, 2005 and
  2004, respectively.
• Applied Materials, our largest customer,
  accounted for 30, 23 and 28 of our sales in
  2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively.

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Lisaks MKSI (Applied Materials accounted for
approximately 18, 20 and 18 of our net sales
for the years ended December 31, 2005, 2004 and
2003, respectively)
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Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT Mcap 372,7m,
käive 337m) provides gas and liquid delivery
systems used by the chip equipment makers such as
AMAT, LRCX and NVLS.
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Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

• HPQ tugevad tulemused 20. veebruaril.
  Hewlett-Packard beats by 0.03, beats on revs,
  guides Q2 revs above consensus, ups Y07 rev
  guidance, guides Y07 EPS above consensus Co
  issues upside revenue guidance for Q2, sees EPS
  of 0.63-0.64 vs. 0.63 consensus sees Q2 revs
  of 24.5 bln vs. 24.1 bln consensus. Co issues
  upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of 2.60-2.65
  vs. 2.56 consensus sees FY07 revs of 98-99
  bln, up from previous guidance of 97 mln, vs.
  97.45 bln consensus.
• Põhjused tugev sülearvutite müük. The company
  benefited from strong momentum in the IPG and PSG
  segments as sales of notebooks and printers drove
  the quarter.
• While they are impressed by the gains in the PSG
  segment, as the share gains have come mostly at
  the expense of Dell. HP has also been able to
  maintain relatively stable pricing while it gains
  share. CFO says there will be an increase in
  margins due to supply corrections, and for the
  year, they don't see any significant changes that
  will affect margins.

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Tugev sülearvutite müük võib hästi mõjuda
komponentidetootjatele, eriti kui HPQ marginaalid
sarnase hinnapoliitika juures ei kasvanud.
Võimalused?

• O2MICRO (OIIM) (toodab energiamuundureid LCD
  ekraanide valgustamiseks, ühendusi arvuti
  erinevate komponentide vahel). Mcap 298m, käive
  124m. Our integrated circuits have been
  incorporated into products sold by Acer, Apple
  Computer, Dell, Fujitsu, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo,
  LG Electronics, NEC, Samsung Electronics, Sharp,
  Sony and Toshiba, among others.
• Sanmina (SANM) (toodab (kaabli)ühendusi,
  mälumooduleid, lüliteid, sulgureid). Mcap 1.9B,
  Käive 10.9B, Sales to our ten largest customers
  accounted for 60.8 of our fiscal 2006 net sales,
  63.9 of our fiscal 2005 net sales and 69.3 of
  our fiscal 2004 net sales. For fiscal 2006, three
  customers, IBM, Lenovo and HP, accounted for
  greater than 10 of our net sales at 12.8, 10.5
  and 10.0, respectively. For fiscal 2005, only
  one customer, IBM, accounted for greater than 10
  of our net sales at 23.2.
• Synaptics (SYNA) touchpads. Mcap 612m, käive
  215m, Klientideks Acer, Asustek, Dell, ECS,
  Fujitsu, Gateway, IBM. HPQ, Lenovo, NEC, Samsung,
  Philips, Toshiba jne.

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• Sirf Tech (SIRF) tulemused 30. jaanuaril. SiRF
  Technology beats by 0.03, revs above consensus
  Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of 0.28 per share,
  0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus
  of 0.25 revenues rose 36.7 year/year to 74.2
  mln vs the 69.9 mln consensus. SIRF reports
  gross margin 55.3 vs 54.4 street expectation.
  SiRF Technology on call sees Q1 EPS of
  0.20-0.23 vs 0.20 consensus, sees revs of
  65-68 mln vs 65.03 mln consenus. Co also sees
  FY07 revs of 320-330 mln vs 305.4 mln
  consensus.
• Oodati suhteliselt head kvartalit, pigem
  tagasihoidlikku prognoosi ning Motorola kehvad
  tulemused on aktsiale halvasti mõjunud. Üllatus
  tugevate prognooside osas oli siiski päris suur.
  Võimalused?

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Seosed

• SIRF marketing of semiconductor and software
  products that are designed to enable
  location-awareness utilizing global positioning
  system (GPS). Mcap 1.5B, Käive 247m. During 2006,
  the following customers represented 10 or more
  of our net revenue Promate, Garmin and
  Gateway/Foretek.
• Garmin (GRMN) design, manufacture, and marketing
  of navigation, communications, and information
  devices that are enabled by global positioning
  system (GPS). Mcap 11.8B, käive 1.77B, short 10.
• NAVTEQ (NVT) engages in the creation, updating,
  enhancing, licensing, and distribution of digital
  map database in North America and Europe. It
  provides digital map information, and related
  software and services. Garmin on NVT klient (15,
  käibest). Mcap 3B, Käive 582m, short 5.

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