Dealing with the changing security environment: an Australian perspective

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Dealing with the changing security environment
an Australian perspective

• Major General (Retd) Peter Abigail
• Executive Director
• The Australian Strategic Policy Institute

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Defence policy evolution since the 1960s

• Alliance with leading Western maritime power
• Forward defence (1947-1976)
• Defence of Australia (1976 2001)
• Regional power and global contributor

• Self-reliance
• Regional capability edge
• A balanced and mainly enduring force structure
• Joint forces and command of operations
• Integrated Defence enterprise
• Greater certainty in Defence funding

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ADF Operational Deployments 1947-2008
WARLIKE (13) NON-WARLIKE (43) HUMANITARIAN (5)
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Defence White Paper Policy Alignment
What do we want our military to do? How do we
want to shape the environment?
Strategic Policy
What are we doing now?
Operational Commitments

• Affordability
• Priority

• Requirements
• Feasibility

Defence Capability
Finance Management

• Affordability
• Efficiency

What is affordable?
What is required?
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Defence White Paper processes and players

• National Security Committee of Cabinet
• Minister for Defence
• Secretaries Committee on National Security
• Defence White Paper Team
• Ministerial Advisory Panel
• Community Consultation Panel
• Budget Audit Team

• Strategic Assessment
• strategic environment, interests, and priorities
• Force Structure Review
• roles, capabilities, choices
• Functional Companion Reviews
• new thinking, cost-effectiveness
• Defence Budget Audit
• external efficiency review
• Community Consultation Report

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Defence White Paper Issues
More demanding

• Power shifts (multiple great powers)
• Military modernisation
• Fragile states
• Erosion of relative regional strategic weight
• Expanding national security agenda

More complex

• Anticipated tempo
• Diversity of operations
• Sustainment challenges
• Risk management
• Operational concepts

Strategic Policy
Operational Commitments

• Affordability
• Priority

• Requirements
• Feasibility

Defence Capability
Finance Management

• Affordability
• Efficiency

• Increasing costs
• New requirements
• Balanced force conundrum
• Internal imbalance of current force
• Technology and survivability

• National resource capacity
• Other priorities
• 3 real growth to 2018
• Beyond - what of GDP?
• Efficiencies and deep reform in Defence

More competition
Hard choices
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Government announcements, so far

• Whole-of-government responses to
• Increased military spending and capability a
  much more contested region
• Continuing threat of terrorism
• Challenges to sovereignty in Pacific Island
  countries
• Cyber warfare and espionage threats
• New challenges of energy security
• Impact of climate change on long-term food and
  water security
• Relationships
• US alliance first pillar of policy
• Regional partners Japan, South Korea, Indonesia,
  Malaysia, Singapore
• Security policy cooperation India
• Security policy dialogue China
• An Asia-Pacific Community

• We need
• capabilities to deal with any contingencies that
  might arise
• Unilateral close to home
• Coalition contribution further afield
• to be at the forefront of military technology
  development
• a flexible land force high-end fighting to
  post-conflict reconstruction
• enhanced naval capability SLOC and support to
  deploying land forces
• air force for support and combat roles to deter,
  defeat, and provide assistance for land and
  maritime forces
• real growth in the defence budget by 3 p.a.
  until 2018, at least

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Questions?
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Defence spending ( of GDP)
Real defence spending (constant 2007-08) has
grown from AUD8bn in 1965-66 to AUD22bn in
2007-08, including nearly doubling in the last
decade
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National security challenges

• Terrorism, extremism (27)
• Global/regional instability and conflict,
  failed/fragile states (9)
• Global power shifts (8)
• Energy security (8)
• Border security (8)
• Climate change (7)
• WMD proliferation (6)
• People trafficking/people smuggling (6)
• Espionage, foreign interference (4)
• Organised crime (4)

• Cyber attacks/e-security (4)
• Building national resilience (3)
• Disease pandemics (3)
• Disaster relief (3)
• Population movements (2)
• Demographic changes (2)
• Resource pressures (2)
• Illegal exploitation of resources (1)
• Transport security (1)
• Drug, arms trafficking (1)

(x) mentions in National Security Statement
released 4 December 2008
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Defence White Papers and updates

• 1976 Defence White Paper Australian Defence
• 1987 Defence White Paper Defence of Australia
• 1993 Australias strategic planning in the 1990s
• 1994 Defence White Paper Defending Australia
• 1997 Australias strategic policy
• 2000 Defence White Paper Defence 2000 Our
  future Defence Force
• 2003 Defence Update
• 2005 Defence Update
• 2007 Defence Update

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Defence White Paper Questions

• What is the likely future role of force in the
  international system?
• What is the international system going to look
  like in a couple of decades?
• What impacts will these changes have on the role
  of Defence?
• What should be the key tasks for Defence over
  these coming decades?
• How might the ADFs military capabilities need to
  change to stay relevant into the future?
• What financial, workforce and other business
  impacts might these changes entail?

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Strategic trends to 2030

• New global demands for peacekeeping and
  stabilisation operations
• New uncertainty in the strategic balance between
  Asias major powers
• Relative stability in Southeast Asia
• Increased instability in Australias nearer
  region
• The steady erosion of Australias relative
  strategic weight and military capabilities
  compared to our region
• New threats and security challenges

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Adaptive Campaigning

• Elements of Conflict Resolution
• Shaping actions
• Mandate for intervention
• Defeating armed forces
• Preventing insurgency
• Setting conditions for development and governance
• Returning control to legitimate indigenous
  agencies
• Lines of Operation (interdependent, mutually
  reinforcing)
• Joint Land Combat
• Population Protection
• Public Information
• Population Support
• Indigenous Capacity Building